GBP Rally off 2.0200

After the Breakout of the Symetrical Triangle the other day we have seen a very positive move back up to 2.0400. Take a look at the Hourly Chart below and see how the Conductor alerted us to buy at 8.00am this morning. For those of you who came on the Evening Workshop you should all be sitting here 200 points better off!!! There was a perfect higher low and combined with the indicator a great move up today...

Dow Jones Holds Strong Yesterday...

The Dow Jones is holding it's own at 13,900 and refuses to fall with good reports from Microsoft (New Game release - $120 million in 24 Hours) and General Motors (New Contract)...

There were great scalping opportunities yesterday with the Retracement and Conductor's perfectly picking the Trades and today should bring us more volatility with the Dow Jones approaching the Old high of 14,021...

FTSE Friday 28th September, 12.30pm

The FTSE was again very predictable this morning, with the fall off the 6,500 resistance level. This is the 3rd time we have found resistance here and it can only be a matter of time before we have a breakout...

Friday, 28th September 2007, 11am

One would have expected a better morning on London after US had a stronger finish (Dow up 35 points) last night, but alas, the FTSE was down over 20 points in the first hour after opening up 14 points. Tube Trade guys take note, London also plays the game, but learn how to trade it properly.

Tate & Lyle was a casualty this morning, down a massive 115 points or 20% after it informed us all that the weaker dollar and rising costs would affect its forecasts.

The Northern Rock saga continues, shedding 10p to 784p.

Yell Group is up, just as the Market Analyser predicted (see ealier charts).

Dana Petroleum was up 67p to 1160p after it told of a new oil discovery with its first well in Norway.

Thursday, 27th September 2007, 11pm

London closed much firmer today up over 53 points at 6,486.4. The FTSE250 was up 105 points at 11,039. A good day all round, really.

The Northern Rock rumours of a big are gathering pace too. They finsihed up 11.5p at 193p. Other banks all enjoyed the newly found smiles by finishing the day healthier than they started. Alliance & Leicester, who have taken more of a pounding than most of the banks of late, rallied a massive 7.8%, or 57.5p, to 790.5p.

British Aiways had a good day, up 14.3 points or 3.9% at 383.3p, on the news it has ordered 12 of the monster A380 Airbus jets as well as 24 of the new Boeing 787 Dreamliners.

Housebuilders also had a positive day, with Taylor Wimpey up 16.5p/6.4% at 274.5p. Taylor Wimpey happens to be one of the stocks we singled out a few days ago as one ready to rise.

New York had opened higher and had a positive reaction to the data that showed a positive light on the job market, eventually closing nearly 35 points higher at 13,912. The S&P 500 was up a little (6 points) at 1,531, and the tech market Nasdaq up over 10 points at 2,709.

Findel (FDL.L) Also Breaks Up

A couple of days ago we also mentioned Findel (FDL.L) that had been found by www.MDStrader.com Market Analyser. We can see by the chart that the price has now broken up, confirming the strength of the scanning of the Market Analsyer. 40 to 50 points today alone. Excellent stuff. We can see this one breaking through the 50-day MA and getting a new support level. We're staying long on this one for now.

Home Ret Group (HOME.L) turns up after neutral day

Two or three days ago we were looking at HOME.L, which looked like it was having the bottom hammered out. Yesterday there was a neutral doji candle, which made us look again. Today we see the rise.

Thursday, 27th September 2007, 3.30pm

London opened up 55 points today after Wall Street closed quite firmer last night. By 3.30pm, the Dow has flown up to 13,900 in the first hour of trading. The Bulls are back, it seems.

Northern Rock was up to 195 by 3.30pm this afternoon, many thinking there will be value with a bid. Spanish businessman, Jose Maria Ruiz-Mateos is apparnetly going to be bidding for 10% of the company in the next few days. Newspapers have reported that Northern Rock has opened its books to US Hedge Funds. Otehr banks found relief in this news as all the majors were also up on the day.

Mining stocks have also had a good day so far, with most up healthily.

GBP/USD breakout of Triangle

GBP/USD has had a very solid move away from it's support at 2.0100. The Analyser gave us a perfect Buy signal at midday on Wednesday and we have now seen a 200 point move up towards 2.0300.

Remember to look for retracements / consolidation before you Trade...

FTSE Holds 6,400 Support level again...

The FTSE has continued it's channel between 6,400 and 6,500. On Wednesday 8am, we had a perfect Buy signal for our move back up to 6,500, for another 100 points in the bank!!! Channels are a dream to trade and when they breakout we should see an aggressive move in that direction...

Wednesday, 26th September 2007, 11pm

Whilst London closed up some 36 points at 6,433, there is still some uncertaincy with the market, and 'within' the market, so to speak. The FTSE has been running a channel and no-one is sure if there will be a break. Whilst everyone wants it to rise (obviously), the market still seems somewhat overvalued. Bad news is coming from various sources, with the US housing market being a big one. We are still of the opinion that the market should have fallen in May, like it usually does (!), and then we'd be having a more real strength climb. Right now it feels like there's been a climb back up for no other reason than everyone thinks there should be one as that's what happens! It does feel like that. The Northern Rock fiasco, BP's worst 3rd quarter etc. - this is news from home. I suppose that's why we technical trade.

Housebuilder Barratt Developments had some good news - profits up over 9% at £428m.

Smiths Group was up nearly 3% at 1,093 after it said that the full year would be about where they expected.

Oil fell a little after being so high - down to $77.55 a bbl.

News from the US wasn't as bad as everyone thought this aftrenoon, so there weren't any violent spikes on the USD.

Topps Tiles (TPT.L) Possible Long Trade

We are currently keeping an eye on Topps Tiles (TPT.L) as the Market Analyser brought it up on a scan. Volume returning with a support level, then a hammer yesterday. We are looking for a break above previous highs, maybe 200p, as a possible buy level.

Wednesday, 26th September 2007, 11am

A better day today. London opended up, with Northern Rock even having a jump up on approach rumours. By 11am the FTSE had levelled at about 6,450 - up over 50 points on the day so far.

Northern Rock jumped 18p to 181p on news that it was cancelling its dividend payment that was due on 26th October. It has now also added that it is in preliminary talks with 'selected parties' on various 'possible transactions'. The rest of the banking sector felt some comfort in this and all were up on the morning so far.

Last night the Dow Jones closed up nearly 20 points at 13,778, although the S&P 500 had an even day, down just half a point at 1,517.

EUR USD Channel...

Take a look at the EUR chart below. The Eur USD has rallied 900 points from the 20th August and could be getting a little overvalued. The trend has been channeling since early 2006 and consistently retraces back to the 200MA. This is definitely one to watch...

Tuesday, 25th September 2007, 8pm

FTSE was lower today. Trading in a fairly wide 100 point margin, the day closed down some 69 points.

The miners took a bit of a pasting, with Antofagasta down 54p (to 789p), Rio down 113p (to 4,091p), Xstrata down 94p (to 3,195p), and Anglo (AAL.L) down 94p to 3,195p. A bad day, really.

BP shed 17p to 572p after the Chief Executives warning to his staff that it would be a 'dreadful' 3rd quarter, whilst BG Group fell 15p to 839p.

The Dow appears to be having a fairly neutral day, although it's slightly down as we post.

I think we're all waiting to hear what Bernanke has to say later in the week. We (MDS) have a gut feeling (call it pessimism) that the whole world is overvalued (!), but whether there is some false (!) or genuine (?) support on the Indicies, we don't know. We seem to be back up near where we were before the recent negative 'correction', although one can argue that if the money is there and the buyers are there, then we should follow the charts. After all, technical trading is what we do...!

We are just swing trading opportunities the scans bring, as well as Indicies and Forex trades as per charts, as per usual.

We hope for the bulls to return, but there is an underlying feeling of bear strength waiting...

Watch this space.

There have been a few finds with the Market Analyser scanner. One we are looking at is HOME.L, who look like they've hit the bottom. We'll see what happens over the next few days. A rise could trigger us to look for a long trade.

Arc Fund Management Holdings (AFM.L) - AIM Play

This one came up on a scan. We wouldn't normally take too much notice of AIM stocks coming up as they are quite illiquid. There has been some volume yesterday and a little today as well. On reading the interims and Chairman's statement, at 13p this one looks cheap. Could be an another acquisition, reading between the lines.

25th September 2007

The FTSE is struggling to break through the 6,500 resistance level and is trying to hold the 6,400 level for the 2nd time. If this breaks we might potentially see a move back down towards the 200MA... An interesting day ahead!!!

Tuesday, 25th September 2007, 11am

Oh Dear. London opened lower on hearing that BP's results are set to be awful - way lower than expected. Yesterday's market gave the feeling there would be a bad day today. By 11am the FTSE was sitting just above 6,400 - some 60 points lower.

The BP CEO has told employees that the 3rd quarter results would be 'dreadful', with the company's performance was at its worst since 1992-3. BP opened down about 15p and has been sitting neutral, with a doji candle forming, for the first 2 hours of trading.

Others have followed suit this morning, with all other miners falling too. Housebuilders also fell, as did the banks. Northern Rock fell just 3p so far this morning, so maybe we near the bootom...?

Monday, 24th September 2007, 11pm

FTSE finished up just 9 points at 6,466 and the FTSE 250 was down nearly 54 points. The US is still in the balance on which way their economy is going to go - data is due later this week.

Northern Rock finished the day at 172p, down 11.5%. It now seems some guesswork and gambling is coming in to play.

Housebuilders took a bit of a beating too, with Taylor Wimpey down nearly 6% amongst others. Wolseley was laso down nearly 5% as the year end profit was down on last year, mainly due to their US housing market exposure.

GENUS (GNS.L) up over 70 points in a week

Further to our post last week showing a good 'buy' sign for Genus, the stock has now jumped 70 points since to 640p. The price has broken the 200-day MA, so we would expect it to now stay above. for the time being. Previous to the market toil of the last few weeks this stock appeared to be starting another advance, so this may now be that same advance back in play. Check out the chart below and look back thru' previous blog posts for the earlier chart of last week (http://mdsmarkets.blogspot.com/2007/09/genus-gnsl-advancing.html) at a price of 572p. We may take a little profit on some of our holding if we break 650p tomorrow, but will hold a tight stop loss with the rest, just incasae of another turn down cycle.

Monday, 24th September 2007, 11am

London stayed fairly neutral after opening, initially down and then slightly up. This was not quite what we had all expected as New York had finished quite stronmg on Friday, but does appear a bit overbought now.

Best performers so far this morning are the mining sector stocks, by a long way. Rio, BHP and Anglo American all up handsomely already.

The bank Northern Rock gapped 10% down, but immediatly jumped up 3% on news that JP Morgan reckoned it was worth more than other advisers had been suggesting.

300 point move in EURUSD

Last week in EurUsd saw a 300 point move from 1.3800 to 1.4100. The Hourly chart has picked the 3 Trades perfectly on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday...

FTSE sits on 200-day Moving Average

The FTSE closed today, Friday 21st September 2007, at 6,456.70 - still above the 200-day MA. This price level has been a support and resistance line recently, so is quite significant. Eyes open on Monday. Let's see how the US closes this evening, it has had a positive day so far (5pm London time, 12pm lunchtime NY).

ARM Holdings - A Good Week.

One we picked up 3 days ago was Arm Holdings. Accumulator and Retracement indicators giving a nudge that this was interesting. This has had a nice 3-day rise, pushing through the 20-day MA.

Bateman (BNLN.L) Off Support...?

One we're looking at on Monday is Bateman. Looks like it could be in for another rise.

Friday 21st September 2007, 10am

London opened much better today - even Northern Rock rising from its lows - despite US closing down last night. By 10am the FTSE had stabilised around 6,460, down from its initial busrt up to 6,475 in its first half an hour of trading.

Northern Rock was uo to just shy of 200p by 10am, seeing some sort of interest and supposed value in the stock at these levels. Other banks were also up, with Barclays (up 8p), Alliance & Leicester (up 12p) and RBS (up 9p) all showing positive territory on the day.

Cruise oufit Carnival was up a further 55p to 2,430p, with Morgan Stanley & Deutche Bank joining the 'buy' chorus coming from the house of distinction these last few days.

Oil stocks are up, enjoying the new highs of the price of a barrel.

Thursday, 20th September 2007, 11pm

The FTSE closed lower today, with banking taking the hit. Northern Rock seems to be causing some negative feeling in the market, to state to obvious. This is spreading as New York's banking sector was also down. There are even rumours that HBOS has had a quiet word with Bank of England for a possible handout. This was not confirmed, and was denied by the bank. HBOS rose back up from 809p to 837p on the bank's response - down 37p on the day.

Back to Northern Rock - the Government has now said it won't guarantee new deposits with the ank, just those that were in there before the strife. Northern Rock was down another 72p (28%) to a paltry 185p. Is that the bottom?! The chiefs at Northern Rock dismissed the suggestion that any takeover would be at a heavily discounted rate. Institutions updated their targets with Citibank giving a 150p target level.

The hammering of Northern Rock has spread to Alliance & Leicester, who seem to get punched more than most since this all began, with a 60p fall to 755p.

Property didn't do to well over all, but our Market Analyser confirmed market feeling as Citigroup raised its stance on Taylor Woodrow to 'buy' from 'hold'. The price still fell, but we feel it's approaching or at support now. Another couple of builder casualties were Persimmon & Belway, as well as Redrow.

Cruise ship outfit Carnival had a great day, up 157p to 2374p. The group infomeed us all that their Q£ results would be better than originally thought.

Thursday, 20th September 2007, 10am

The FTSE fell on opening some 50 points, continuing yesterday's close turn to the negative. The buying throughout the day yesterday had been a bit much, too quick, it seems.

Banks all fell back a bit, with yesterday's ignoring of the Northern Rock situation maybe becoming a factor again.

Housebuilders and property also took a hit early on, with all majors falling on selling. We are currently looking at Taylor Wimpy (TW.L), which we feel could be a bit oversold at these 285p levels. If a positive day comes there could be a nice swing trade up to the 20-day MA, and if it breaks that we could see it as a new support. One to watch.

One success in early trading was Sainsbury's, which jumped 15p to 569p. This could be partly due to Morrison's results (up 3p), which were very well welcomes.

Oil - Nymex was showing light sweet crude up at $82 for Octover delivery, a record.

Wednesday, 19th September 2007, 11pm

London shares closed up today at 6,460 - there was a nice gap up and the day stayed strong. Just some profit taking before the close.

Lloyds TSB and HBOS have now both denied they are in the frame for a Northern Rock bid. Northern Rock ended down at 257p, some 16% lower. Other banks gained ground, with Barclays, RBS and Lloyds TSB having good days.

Thge mining sector had a great day, with all the majors well up on yesterday's close prices.

The Dow Jones was also up, with Nasdaq and S&P500 following the trend.

Oil prices are very bullish, some say a false high, but this didn't deter the buying, nor did the inflation worries. The Fed's interest rate cut seems to have worked well.

USD/CAD Breakout

Chart patterns are very important in Trading and their is a huge benefit in drawing support and resistance lines. This is a recent USD/CAD chart in a perfect Descending Triangle. The Pre Alerts allow us to maximise our potential 300 Point Profit on this trade.

FTSE Rally

Ever wondered how to read a trend? The Analyser will pick this for you... Take a look at the Pre Alerts on this chart and they show you exactly when to enter the market. The FTSE has rallied from 5,800 and with each retracement, there has been exceptional profit..

Dow Jones Rally

Is a monday a good time to buy the Dow Jones? Take a look at the 2 Buy signals in the last 8 days. That's 800 points profit in a very short time...

GENUS (GNS.L) - Advancing

Here we have GENUS (GNS.L) rising again thru' the 20-day MA. What will be significant on this one is breaking 600p and then getting to the north side of the 200 and 50-day MAs.

We believe this one was going to rise to 700p when the market fell out of bed a couple of weeks ago. Positive sentiment is now back to this stock, in our opinion, and the chart below can show this latest cycle. We're long for now.

SHIRE (SHP.L) Good Indicators

SHIRE (SHP.L)

This one came up on a multi indicator scan yesterday.

Notice the neutral candle on the 200-day MA and then the Retracement indicator to follow. Perfect long trade indication. This is what the Market Analyser is for. The scanning is second to none.



Apologies for the chart looking tight, but look at the last 3 days trading. The neutral day, finishing on the 200-day Moving Average was significant. The Accumulator confirming volume coming back in. Then yesterday the Retracement indicator joined the Accumulator, giving much more weight to the entry decision. A scan for both indicators together brought this chart up. Today we've jumped 30-points already.

Wednesday, 19th September 2007, 11am

London opened up with Gusto in reponse to New York's positive day yesterday. New York having some decent news in that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%. The Dow actually jumpoed 200 points within 3 minutes of the announcement. The Bulls return...

Recent troubled bank Northern Rock continued to rise, up 10% at one stage this morning. The Government's guarantee and other positive outcome rumours have given the possibility to a bargain shareprice, whilst remaining speculative, of course. HBOS & Lloyds TSB are both names in the frame for a takeover, but both banks remained 'schtum' on the subject.

The big miners were also higher, even Antofagasta and Xstrata who both went ex-div, which is suprising. Other miners also all did well.

18th September 2007, 11:00pm

London was stronger today, but did close down quite sharply aftre the rally after lunch. Some positive feeliong returned to the banking sector, but there is obviously caution in the wind. But 100 points up on the day has to be seen as some confidence returning, so we can only hope it continues.

The Northern Rock saga is by no means over, but it can breathe a sigh of relief after closing over 23 points up, back above the 300 level, at 306p. That's a massibe 8.2% on the day, but obviously miles short of where we started this episode a few days ago. The other banks all followed back in to positive territory.

Most of the major miners also had a good ady, with BHP Billiton and Antofagasta feeling strong.

The comms sector didn't fair as good, with Vodafone, BT and C&W all having poor days.

Another to mention was easyjet, who fell 16p (to 512p) after a negative mention from one of the city's brokers, Numis, recommended that any decent profits should be taken as they were now 'neutral' on the stock.

Tuesday, 18th September 2007, 11am

Well, looks like the Government's guarantee to Northern Rock customers has at least given some relief to the shareholders, with a bounce this morning. This brought up the banks and most other blue chips, with a little positive feeling returing to the market. This also included the housebuilder sector, with Barratts and Persimmon showing positive ground.

One negative was BT Group, which saw a 1% fall on bearish opinion on the telecoms sector from Morgan Stanley.

The FTSE was up 25 points in the first half an hour of trading, but still well short of the 106 point fall yesterday.

Monday 17th September 2007, 6:00pm

London closed down with Northern Rock (NRK.L) plummeting 31% (nearly 2 quid!) after its approach to the Bank of England for emergency funding and a 2nd profit warning. That's two profit warning in 3 months. They obviously want tio get all the bad news out now. NRK investors have withdrawn £2bn from the bank and now the Government has says it will guarantee the investors' money. Obviously a stir caused in Whitehall.

Other banks were also down, with Barclays down 19 to the sub-600 level (596p) and HBOS down 32p (860p) amongst others.

The large property plays and House Builders also took a bit of a pounding with Taylor Wimpey down 18p to 313p and Bellway down 87p (1,067p), with Barratt down 41p to 929p and Persimmon following suit with a 72p drop to 1,016p. Not a good day for the property sector again.

The FTSE ended down nearly 75 points at 6,209 with volume quite firm.

The US had the DJI down to just above the 13,000 level by LOndon's close, with Nasdaq and S&P500 also down.

STG saw a fall to sub $2.00, but did recover above. Rumours of the US raising interest rates causing the fall.

Monday, 17th September 2007, 10:30am

London opened this morning lower, with the FTSE down about 90 points by 9am. The Northern Rock situation has put pressure on the banks in general, as well as seeing its own price fall by something like 25% again this morning. There are rumours of a takeover too. Difficult to call a bottom on this one at present, with investors queing in their scores to withdraw their cash not giving anyone any confidence. HBOS, Barclays, RBS, Alliance & Leicester all fell this morning and the Property sector also fell in sympathy, with British Land, Hammerson Land Securities amongst the fallers too. WE can all wait for the inflation figures, due tomorrow, to see if that can give anything positive.

On FX it has been noted that STG fell under USD2.00, but only mildly.

We all await the US opening to see how they feel. The DJI, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all up on Friday.

Here's a GBP-USD daily chart:

Friday, 14th September 2007, 10pm

The heavy falls on London and New York closed higher than their lows, but it was still a red day. The Northern Rock situation (down 196p or 32%, a 6-year low) brought other banks down with it. Barclays was down 19 to the sub-600 level again at 596, and HBOS was down 32p to 860. Northern Rock investors ignored assurances that their money was safe and queued at branches up and down the country so to withdraw funds. The ~£30k guaranteed return in a worst-case scenario situation with an Institutional Bank did nothing to calm their nerves.

Housebuilders also had a bad day, with Taylor Wimpey down nearly 19p to 313p, and Bovis down 40p to 694. Barratts (down 41p), Persimmon (down 72p) and Redrow (down 24p) all told similar stories.

The FTSE finished down nearly 75 points, whilst the Dow Jones fell over 82 points. Nadaq & S&P 500 faired better, but were still both down. The Dow opening was fantastic. Those who know the pro trade on the bell will have done as well as we all did at MDS HQ. Fantastic trade.

We shall see what Monday brings...

Friday, 14th September 2007, 2:15pm.

News before the US opens...

London opened with leading shares trading lower early on. The financial sector was under a bit of pressure as UK mortgage bank Northern Rock confirmed that it had gone to the Bank of England for some emergency funding, citing that it had been hit by the credit problems in the mortgage sector. Northern Rock fell to 500p, down some 18%, at kick off, and then down to 460p as the day has moved on.

In the first 20mins of trading the FTSE had fallen about 75 points, with the FTSE 250 down some 130 points. Trading was firm. It fell some more and just prior to the US opening it's still down about 120 points. (it's bounced straight back off the 200-day moving average today).

Whilst no-one thinks we're here for any crash, sorry, correction, there does seem to be a bit of 'did we correct enough' feeling in the air. There's no way Northern Rock could fail, of course, but the US credit problems are massive, and the UK is starting to look at its own debt book. Here are MDS we feel that the US should not have pushed the Dow up to 14,000 over the summer, when a 'usual' fall back in May would have done wonders, really, as we'd now have the climb back up to 13,000 with a more genuine growth than the situation we are all currently in - which seems to many as a false support and a false drive up, now at 13,400-odd. The US banks etc are putting money in, it seems, like there's no tomorrow. It's almost like a margin call. Support at any cost. Maybe we're cynics, or pessimists, but there is a definitie feeling that maybe we're on some awfully high P/Es (especially over the pond) and there is more bad news to come from the financial sector.

The Far East seems to have had a fairly nice Friday, being farly bouyant, with both Tokyo & Hong Kong both up over 300 points. The Hang Seng actually hit an all-time high of 24,924.69 on the rumour of a US interest rate cut next week. We'll see.

Oil, in the meantime, is quite happy up at $80 bbl.

Cable has fallen back 3 cents in 2 days, sitting at $2.00 today. Here's a GBP-USD daily chart showing the fall back for the last 2 days.