London Session
It may have been the last day of the year, but it still had some action - thin volume or not. There were some decent breaks.
EUR/USD fell below the 1.41 level and dropped some -140 pips during the London session, towards the 1.3950 zone. The 1.3900 level now looks like the next critical support level and could see further falls if that breaks.
EUR/JPY fell too, although not as bad, down -80 pips to 126.30/40. The world stock markets flurried a little, so this may have helped the pair around this level.
USD/JPY just channelled along in the 90/91 band, moves related to US short-term yields.
The New York session should see some swift moves on light volumes as well. It all shuts off at 9pm UK time. There is some news in the US coming today - the jobless claims and crude oil inventories show see some reaction in the Forex USD pairs.
Happy New Year to all!
Wednesday, 31 December 2008
Forex Update - Wed 31Dec08 - Asian Session
Asia Session
On this last trading day the US dollar tried to gain a little ground against the Yen. Not much, but it did move about 20 pips. Not sure what 2009 will bring. The US is in a mess, but the Japanese want to weaken their Yen. Interesting times ahead.
EUR/USD kicked off around the 1.4050 level, and then the Euros started being bought again - up to 1.4147 - then a pull back to a session low of 1.4057. It was still thin volume. The Euro edged up again to end near the 1.4080 level.
USD/JPY. The US dollar was a little stronger against the Yen, after an early low of 90.15 moved up to a session high of about 90.43, before pulling bcak to a session end of about 90.35.
EUR/JPY was higher again after kicking off at a low of around 126.85, then ran up to 127.77, and pulled back to the 127.20 level by the end of the session.
In fact, most Yen pairs moved higher during the Asian session. The Yen has had a strong year, which hasn't been so welcome to their export product costs.
It is worth a mention that tomorrow, New Year's Day, will be the 10th anniversary of the Euro currency. It will also see Slovakia joining, too, officially becoming the 16th member of the Euro zone.
So, that's it finished for 2008 in the Far East, then. What a year. I think this year will be remembered as a bit of a nightmare, but we do wonder if 2009 will see much, muych more turmoil around the world. We wish you all a happy and profitable 2009.
On this last trading day the US dollar tried to gain a little ground against the Yen. Not much, but it did move about 20 pips. Not sure what 2009 will bring. The US is in a mess, but the Japanese want to weaken their Yen. Interesting times ahead.
EUR/USD kicked off around the 1.4050 level, and then the Euros started being bought again - up to 1.4147 - then a pull back to a session low of 1.4057. It was still thin volume. The Euro edged up again to end near the 1.4080 level.
USD/JPY. The US dollar was a little stronger against the Yen, after an early low of 90.15 moved up to a session high of about 90.43, before pulling bcak to a session end of about 90.35.
EUR/JPY was higher again after kicking off at a low of around 126.85, then ran up to 127.77, and pulled back to the 127.20 level by the end of the session.
In fact, most Yen pairs moved higher during the Asian session. The Yen has had a strong year, which hasn't been so welcome to their export product costs.
It is worth a mention that tomorrow, New Year's Day, will be the 10th anniversary of the Euro currency. It will also see Slovakia joining, too, officially becoming the 16th member of the Euro zone.
So, that's it finished for 2008 in the Far East, then. What a year. I think this year will be remembered as a bit of a nightmare, but we do wonder if 2009 will see much, muych more turmoil around the world. We wish you all a happy and profitable 2009.
Tuesday, 30 December 2008
Forex Update - New York Session - Tues 30Dec08
New York Session
The New York session saw some minor excitement early doors, but soon calmed down. Thin voilumes and the pubs and bars opening, we think.
Wall Street had a little flurry, up some 2.5% despite some weak economic data. The worst news was the Conference Board's consumer confidence index (CCI), which dropped to a record low of 38.0 in December, down from 44.7 figure for November. News that the labour differential collapsed to something like a 7% unemployment figure for December didn't help.
EUR/USD was lower despite some poor US data news, falling some -30 pips towards the 1.4070 level by the time the New York session was coming to a close.
EUR/JPY also fell despite the stock market moving up. It was about -20 pips lower in New York trading around the 127.00 support level area.
USD/JPY was fairly non-eventful, staying around the 90.30 level. This 90.00 to 91.00 channel seems to be comfortable right now for the pair.
News out tomorrow includes initial jobless and Crude Oil inventories. That should round off 2008 with some action.
The New York session saw some minor excitement early doors, but soon calmed down. Thin voilumes and the pubs and bars opening, we think.
Wall Street had a little flurry, up some 2.5% despite some weak economic data. The worst news was the Conference Board's consumer confidence index (CCI), which dropped to a record low of 38.0 in December, down from 44.7 figure for November. News that the labour differential collapsed to something like a 7% unemployment figure for December didn't help.
EUR/USD was lower despite some poor US data news, falling some -30 pips towards the 1.4070 level by the time the New York session was coming to a close.
EUR/JPY also fell despite the stock market moving up. It was about -20 pips lower in New York trading around the 127.00 support level area.
USD/JPY was fairly non-eventful, staying around the 90.30 level. This 90.00 to 91.00 channel seems to be comfortable right now for the pair.
News out tomorrow includes initial jobless and Crude Oil inventories. That should round off 2008 with some action.
Forex Update - Tues 30Dec08 - London Session
London Session
It was still thin volume during the London session, even though there seem to be a few traders around. The only news from Europe worth mentioning was the French housing new builds, which was a little better than expected. The -14.4% result for a poor 3-month run-rate for November, with a -20.6% result for October bettered. The ECB's Mersch comments were taken positively, which helped give the Euro some weighted support. The Euro currency considered a 'stabilizer and protector' during this financial turmoil.
EUR/USD moved up about 80 pips during the session, trading around the 1.4170/80 level just before New York kicked off. A break of the 1.4220/30 area looks like we could see higher levels, but a break below the 1.4130/20 level could see some lows.
The Euro's strength also showed through against the yen as EUR/JPY added about 70 pips in London trading towards the 1.2780/90 zone.
European bourses were up about 1% at last look and while the overall correlation between stocks and FX has weakened, this bid to risk assets likely still provides a short-term base for EUR/JPY near the 127 mark.
USD/JPY was fairly steady during the London session around 90.20/30. We expect the pair to continue to follow around here, with a 90.00 support level and 90.50 resistance and break level. Use 90.50 as a pivot for upside.
It was still thin volume during the London session, even though there seem to be a few traders around. The only news from Europe worth mentioning was the French housing new builds, which was a little better than expected. The -14.4% result for a poor 3-month run-rate for November, with a -20.6% result for October bettered. The ECB's Mersch comments were taken positively, which helped give the Euro some weighted support. The Euro currency considered a 'stabilizer and protector' during this financial turmoil.
EUR/USD moved up about 80 pips during the session, trading around the 1.4170/80 level just before New York kicked off. A break of the 1.4220/30 area looks like we could see higher levels, but a break below the 1.4130/20 level could see some lows.
The Euro's strength also showed through against the yen as EUR/JPY added about 70 pips in London trading towards the 1.2780/90 zone.
European bourses were up about 1% at last look and while the overall correlation between stocks and FX has weakened, this bid to risk assets likely still provides a short-term base for EUR/JPY near the 127 mark.
USD/JPY was fairly steady during the London session around 90.20/30. We expect the pair to continue to follow around here, with a 90.00 support level and 90.50 resistance and break level. Use 90.50 as a pivot for upside.
Forex Update - Tues 30Dec08 - Asian Session
Asia Session
The dollar took more pressure during the Asian session. The current Israel/Gaza situation seems to be weighing on the dollar even more. Concerns over oil etc come in to play when there is trouble in the middle east as the US is so dependent on oil.
The price of the black stuff rose to US$40.30 bbl. The Euro seems to be following any oil price moves.
EUR/USD kicked off the session near its session lows of 1.3916, then moved up to its highs near 1.4135 as the session move on, meaning a 1% loss in dollar value.
The dollar faired no better against the Yen, either. USD/JPY fell from early highs of 90.95 to bottom out at about 90.24 by the end of the session end. It is worth noting that Japan's Nikkei 225 finished its trading year down a staggering 42% over the calender year.
The Dollar fell against Sterling, too. GBP/USD marched up from 1.4396 to just over 1.4539.
The Swiss Franc followed, with USD/CHF falling from 1.0615 to 1.0505.
The Dollar fell against 14 of the 16 pairs considered the most traded currencies.
Volume remains thin, so be careful.
The dollar took more pressure during the Asian session. The current Israel/Gaza situation seems to be weighing on the dollar even more. Concerns over oil etc come in to play when there is trouble in the middle east as the US is so dependent on oil.
The price of the black stuff rose to US$40.30 bbl. The Euro seems to be following any oil price moves.
EUR/USD kicked off the session near its session lows of 1.3916, then moved up to its highs near 1.4135 as the session move on, meaning a 1% loss in dollar value.
The dollar faired no better against the Yen, either. USD/JPY fell from early highs of 90.95 to bottom out at about 90.24 by the end of the session end. It is worth noting that Japan's Nikkei 225 finished its trading year down a staggering 42% over the calender year.
The Dollar fell against Sterling, too. GBP/USD marched up from 1.4396 to just over 1.4539.
The Swiss Franc followed, with USD/CHF falling from 1.0615 to 1.0505.
The Dollar fell against 14 of the 16 pairs considered the most traded currencies.
Volume remains thin, so be careful.
Monday, 29 December 2008
Forex Update - Mon 29Dec08 - New York Session
New York Session
A surpise, really. Yes, the unexpected. The New York session brought some decent action, despite the lack of economic data or events. Everyone was looking for breaks, it seems.
EUR/USD collapsed about -300 pips in New York trading, with the move above 1.43 proven to be unsustainable on thin trading. By the time the session closed the pair was around the 1.3970 level. The low of 1.3820 the week before Xmas looks like the next critical support mark. If we break that then 1.3500 could soon follow, we think.
EUR/JPY was down -230 points to the 1.2650 area after the attempted rally through the 1.2900 level eventually failed.
USD/JPY did look at that massive 90.00 level, but look and nudge is all it did.
GBP/USD continued to fall, down some -120 pips to the 1.4480/90 area. Still looking like lower will follow whilst we are under 1.4550, and a break under the 1.4450/40 level could see some nasty falls.
With no economic news today, it was technical trading, breakouts and support levels that were being eyed, with the same expected over night in Asia trading.
A surpise, really. Yes, the unexpected. The New York session brought some decent action, despite the lack of economic data or events. Everyone was looking for breaks, it seems.
EUR/USD collapsed about -300 pips in New York trading, with the move above 1.43 proven to be unsustainable on thin trading. By the time the session closed the pair was around the 1.3970 level. The low of 1.3820 the week before Xmas looks like the next critical support mark. If we break that then 1.3500 could soon follow, we think.
EUR/JPY was down -230 points to the 1.2650 area after the attempted rally through the 1.2900 level eventually failed.
USD/JPY did look at that massive 90.00 level, but look and nudge is all it did.
GBP/USD continued to fall, down some -120 pips to the 1.4480/90 area. Still looking like lower will follow whilst we are under 1.4550, and a break under the 1.4450/40 level could see some nasty falls.
With no economic news today, it was technical trading, breakouts and support levels that were being eyed, with the same expected over night in Asia trading.
Forex - Today's Trades - Mon 29Dec08
There were two trades today. These were called to subscribers.
___
Trade 1.
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+141 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 128.04
Stop level: 129.30
Target level: 126.47
Closed: 126.63 (+141 pips)
The pair made a low of 126.49, just couple of pips above the target. After failing to reach the target a few times the trade was closed at 126.63.
___
Trade 2.
EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+132 pips) - target reached
Open Short: EUR/USD @ 1.4252
Stop level: 1.4320
Target level: 1.4120
Closed: 1.4120 (+132 pips) - target reached
___
Do you get calls like that - as they happen?
Come and join the REAL Traders. www.marketbytes.com.
___
___
Trade 1.
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+141 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 128.04
Stop level: 129.30
Target level: 126.47
Closed: 126.63 (+141 pips)
The pair made a low of 126.49, just couple of pips above the target. After failing to reach the target a few times the trade was closed at 126.63.
___
Trade 2.
EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+132 pips) - target reached
Open Short: EUR/USD @ 1.4252
Stop level: 1.4320
Target level: 1.4120
Closed: 1.4120 (+132 pips) - target reached
___
Do you get calls like that - as they happen?
Come and join the REAL Traders. www.marketbytes.com.
___
Forex Update - Mon 29Dec08 - London Session
London Session
There was some activity this morning in London, with some surprised of the movement during this holiday period. The US Dollar fell against the Euro, but was higher against other major currencies. No real mainland European economic data today, except some Italian news on business confidence - it sank to 66.6 in December from a 71.6 the prior month.
The strong Euro rallied anyway, with EUR/USD up 35 pips towards the 1.4300 level. This morning's session high was just above the 1.4360 level, with profit taking looking certain if we continue towards the 1.4400 level.
Here in the UK the data was poor. Housing equity withdrawal fell to -£5.7 bln in Q3 from -£2.0 bln the previous month.
GBP/USD fell more than -110 points to the 1.4640/50 zone. An equal Euro looks more likely, as the EUR/GBP pair got ever closer to parity, almost reaching the 0.98 mark.
The price of the black stuff was up a dollar to just over the US$40 bbl level again.
USD/CAD movced up despite the oil move, up about 100 pips during the London session and was at about 1.2200 by the time New York came to life.
No economic events are due during the New York session. Volumes should be light, but watch for any breaks.
There was some activity this morning in London, with some surprised of the movement during this holiday period. The US Dollar fell against the Euro, but was higher against other major currencies. No real mainland European economic data today, except some Italian news on business confidence - it sank to 66.6 in December from a 71.6 the prior month.
The strong Euro rallied anyway, with EUR/USD up 35 pips towards the 1.4300 level. This morning's session high was just above the 1.4360 level, with profit taking looking certain if we continue towards the 1.4400 level.
Here in the UK the data was poor. Housing equity withdrawal fell to -£5.7 bln in Q3 from -£2.0 bln the previous month.
GBP/USD fell more than -110 points to the 1.4640/50 zone. An equal Euro looks more likely, as the EUR/GBP pair got ever closer to parity, almost reaching the 0.98 mark.
The price of the black stuff was up a dollar to just over the US$40 bbl level again.
USD/CAD movced up despite the oil move, up about 100 pips during the London session and was at about 1.2200 by the time New York came to life.
No economic events are due during the New York session. Volumes should be light, but watch for any breaks.
Forex Update - Mon 29Dec08 - Asia Session
Asia Session
The US Dollar continued its poor run. Everyone seems to be selling the dollar, thinking the US econoomy can only get worse.
The EUR/USD kicked off the week at 140.60, and never looked back. The level rose to a high of around 1.4173. The pair then pulled back to about 1.4160.
USD/JPY saw further pressure on the greenback, with a 90.73 high turning to a sub 90.50 low. Not massive, but negative all the same.
EUR/JPY pushed up from 127.30 to just near 128.40.
The Swissie looked safe, with CHF gaining some interest. USD/CHF fell from 1.0677 to 1.0553.
USD/CAD was fell quickly, down from 1.2207 to around 1.2087.
Don't forget that Japan will be on holiday tomorrow.
Be careful, and watch for breaks. Happy Trading.
The US Dollar continued its poor run. Everyone seems to be selling the dollar, thinking the US econoomy can only get worse.
The EUR/USD kicked off the week at 140.60, and never looked back. The level rose to a high of around 1.4173. The pair then pulled back to about 1.4160.
USD/JPY saw further pressure on the greenback, with a 90.73 high turning to a sub 90.50 low. Not massive, but negative all the same.
EUR/JPY pushed up from 127.30 to just near 128.40.
The Swissie looked safe, with CHF gaining some interest. USD/CHF fell from 1.0677 to 1.0553.
USD/CAD was fell quickly, down from 1.2207 to around 1.2087.
Don't forget that Japan will be on holiday tomorrow.
Be careful, and watch for breaks. Happy Trading.
Tuesday, 23 December 2008
Forex Update - Tues 23Dec08 - London Session Summary
London Session
London trading was thin, and a bit lack-lustre. Most people on holiday, it seems. Santa will be here tomorrow night, don't forget. Anyway, Eurozone data was fairly positive, although this didn't cause much of a stir on the Forex markets. French consumer spending was higher than expected - up by +0.3% in November, whilst the market was actually looking for a small fall. There had been a small fall in October, but the annual growth rate actually came in exactly as expected at a +1.0% annual run-rate.
Comments from ECB member Bini Smaghi were that he sees inflation falling very quickly, down to below 2% by the middle of next year. This will likely ramp up interest rate cut expectations as inflation loses its strength in the argument.
EUR/USD was stagnant - marking time, almost, near the 1.40 level as New York kicked off. This does look like a short-term pivot, with resistance around 1.4020/30 and support then near 1.3950 next.
The yen crosses were also like watching paint dry, with any move of a spiky volatile nature, with EUR/JPY running a 70 pip channel, top to bttom. The pair ended around a -30 pip level during the London session, ending around the 126.00/10 zone.
USD/JPY seemed like it was in a coma. About -20 pips to the psychological 90.00/10 area. With US data coming out over the next two days, we would not be surprised to see the price action ratchet up in the yen crosses as risk appetite is re-priced.
Looking at support and resistance levels, we would say USD/JPY - 89.00 support and 91.00 resistance, whilst EUR/JPY - 124.00 support and 127.00 resistance.
London trading was thin, and a bit lack-lustre. Most people on holiday, it seems. Santa will be here tomorrow night, don't forget. Anyway, Eurozone data was fairly positive, although this didn't cause much of a stir on the Forex markets. French consumer spending was higher than expected - up by +0.3% in November, whilst the market was actually looking for a small fall. There had been a small fall in October, but the annual growth rate actually came in exactly as expected at a +1.0% annual run-rate.
Comments from ECB member Bini Smaghi were that he sees inflation falling very quickly, down to below 2% by the middle of next year. This will likely ramp up interest rate cut expectations as inflation loses its strength in the argument.
EUR/USD was stagnant - marking time, almost, near the 1.40 level as New York kicked off. This does look like a short-term pivot, with resistance around 1.4020/30 and support then near 1.3950 next.
The yen crosses were also like watching paint dry, with any move of a spiky volatile nature, with EUR/JPY running a 70 pip channel, top to bttom. The pair ended around a -30 pip level during the London session, ending around the 126.00/10 zone.
USD/JPY seemed like it was in a coma. About -20 pips to the psychological 90.00/10 area. With US data coming out over the next two days, we would not be surprised to see the price action ratchet up in the yen crosses as risk appetite is re-priced.
Looking at support and resistance levels, we would say USD/JPY - 89.00 support and 91.00 resistance, whilst EUR/JPY - 124.00 support and 127.00 resistance.
Forex Update - Tues 23Dec08 - UK Morning (Asia Session)
Asia Session
The USD/JPY pair was pretty much marking time today - it was like watching paint dry, almost. The Japanese markets were closed for the Jap Emperor's Birthday, which is a national holiday. USD/JPY did rise a little in thin trading, bobbing around in a 90.34 to 90.11 channel for the session.
The Yen was still feeling some effects of the Bank of Japan statement yesterday, which talked down the Yen as best it could. News that the Japanese economy is actually worsening, for the first time in seven years, is now creeping in to the markets. Japan's economy is, of course, export based, with their balance of payments what every government would prefer. But as this global recession spreads, and looks more and more like becoming a depression, Japan's exports have suffered. The days of the JPY being a safe haven are sailing away, one feels.
EUR/JPY also made minimal gains in thin trade, moving from near 125.60 to highs just over the 126.45 level, before settling back near 126.30. Euro buying was widespread in Asia, with everyone jumping on the Euro bandwagon, especially against the US Dollar, where investors are expecting this US economic data to further blot and confirm the extent of US economic situation.
EUR/USD moved from 1.3928 up to highs of 1.4018, but then settled back to the 1.3990 levels. Later today the US brings data including: final Q3 GDP, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and new and existing home sales.
Don't forget that Thursday and Friday are holidays, so this is a short trading week. Expect thin markets and possible high volatility until the New Year kick off in 2009.
Happy Trading.
The USD/JPY pair was pretty much marking time today - it was like watching paint dry, almost. The Japanese markets were closed for the Jap Emperor's Birthday, which is a national holiday. USD/JPY did rise a little in thin trading, bobbing around in a 90.34 to 90.11 channel for the session.
The Yen was still feeling some effects of the Bank of Japan statement yesterday, which talked down the Yen as best it could. News that the Japanese economy is actually worsening, for the first time in seven years, is now creeping in to the markets. Japan's economy is, of course, export based, with their balance of payments what every government would prefer. But as this global recession spreads, and looks more and more like becoming a depression, Japan's exports have suffered. The days of the JPY being a safe haven are sailing away, one feels.
EUR/JPY also made minimal gains in thin trade, moving from near 125.60 to highs just over the 126.45 level, before settling back near 126.30. Euro buying was widespread in Asia, with everyone jumping on the Euro bandwagon, especially against the US Dollar, where investors are expecting this US economic data to further blot and confirm the extent of US economic situation.
EUR/USD moved from 1.3928 up to highs of 1.4018, but then settled back to the 1.3990 levels. Later today the US brings data including: final Q3 GDP, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and new and existing home sales.
Don't forget that Thursday and Friday are holidays, so this is a short trading week. Expect thin markets and possible high volatility until the New Year kick off in 2009.
Happy Trading.
Monday, 22 December 2008
Forex Update - Mon 22Dec08 - UK Evening, New York Session
New York Session
The Dow Jones fell 59.42 points to 8519.69, the S&P fell 16.25 points to 871.63, and the Nasdaq fell 31.97 points to 1,532.35. US stocks sfollwed the European sessions, and pulled back.
On to Forex, where the dollar gained a little more ground in thin trading due to the short week. Xmas is nearly here.
EUR/USD fell about -50 pips in New York trading towards 1.3930, with the breakthrough of the 1.40 level after seeing a session high near 1.4020/30.
USD/JPY added 30 pips, up to the 90.20/30 area, after a fairly successful US Treasury note auction helped to keep yields higher. The 2-year note added about 8 basis points, and was sitting near 0.82% at the session close. This positive relationship between USD/JPY and US yields remained strong.
The price of the black stuff retreated again, after a rise over the last couple of days. We were now back under the US$40 bbl.
USD/CAD leapt some 180 pips into the 1.2180/90 area. 1.22 looks like a strong resistance, with the 1.2200/10 zone kerbing any upside during the session. A breakout or breakthrough of this level would see further gains we think.
The Dow Jones fell 59.42 points to 8519.69, the S&P fell 16.25 points to 871.63, and the Nasdaq fell 31.97 points to 1,532.35. US stocks sfollwed the European sessions, and pulled back.
On to Forex, where the dollar gained a little more ground in thin trading due to the short week. Xmas is nearly here.
EUR/USD fell about -50 pips in New York trading towards 1.3930, with the breakthrough of the 1.40 level after seeing a session high near 1.4020/30.
USD/JPY added 30 pips, up to the 90.20/30 area, after a fairly successful US Treasury note auction helped to keep yields higher. The 2-year note added about 8 basis points, and was sitting near 0.82% at the session close. This positive relationship between USD/JPY and US yields remained strong.
The price of the black stuff retreated again, after a rise over the last couple of days. We were now back under the US$40 bbl.
USD/CAD leapt some 180 pips into the 1.2180/90 area. 1.22 looks like a strong resistance, with the 1.2200/10 zone kerbing any upside during the session. A breakout or breakthrough of this level would see further gains we think.
Forex Update - Mon22Dec08, London session
London Session
The US Dollar did rally some in London this morning as weak UK and European economic data helped the dollar have some support. The Eurozone industrial new orders fell sharply - more than expected - down some -4.7% in October, which followed a -5.4% fall i September. German GfK consumer confidence disappointed as well, with at 2.1 read figure for January, which is unchanged from the December read.
EUR/USD fell more than -80 pips, and was sitting near the 1.3970/80 level as the break below the important 1.40 level saw the drop quicken slightly.
GBP/USD took a hammering, with a -150 points fall back to 1.4770/80, which was just ahead of the New York session kick off.
The equity markets remained mixed thoughout Europe, and is all about -1.0% down today, whilst in Asia earlier this morning the markets did a bit better, although were still slightly to the nagative. US stocks are expected to rise today, although volume will be thin as we are almost at Xmas now, but do expect some volatile moves in some stocks.
The yen crosses were mixed in the London session, this despite the overall weakness in stocks. EUR/JPY fell more than -60 points to the 125.60/70 level, although USD/JPY was supported by the dollar's strength, and rose a small 10 pips into the 89.90/95 area.
The US Dollar did rally some in London this morning as weak UK and European economic data helped the dollar have some support. The Eurozone industrial new orders fell sharply - more than expected - down some -4.7% in October, which followed a -5.4% fall i September. German GfK consumer confidence disappointed as well, with at 2.1 read figure for January, which is unchanged from the December read.
EUR/USD fell more than -80 pips, and was sitting near the 1.3970/80 level as the break below the important 1.40 level saw the drop quicken slightly.
GBP/USD took a hammering, with a -150 points fall back to 1.4770/80, which was just ahead of the New York session kick off.
The equity markets remained mixed thoughout Europe, and is all about -1.0% down today, whilst in Asia earlier this morning the markets did a bit better, although were still slightly to the nagative. US stocks are expected to rise today, although volume will be thin as we are almost at Xmas now, but do expect some volatile moves in some stocks.
The yen crosses were mixed in the London session, this despite the overall weakness in stocks. EUR/JPY fell more than -60 points to the 125.60/70 level, although USD/JPY was supported by the dollar's strength, and rose a small 10 pips into the 89.90/95 area.
Forex Update - Mon22Dec08, early morning, Asian session
Asia Session
It was a fairly calm session ahead of the holiday, as Japan is closed tomorrow. The JPY lost some ground right across the board as the Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa was trying his hardest to weaken his own currency on the world markets. He talked it down as best he could. Japanese exports are becoming very expensive now.
USD/JPY opened near the lows of 89.23, and never looked like returning aftre its rise up to over the 90.20 level during the session. The pair remained near the big 90.00 level as the Europe session kicked off. Against the Euro, the Yen was beaten down from the lows of 124.15 early doors to about 126.15 being its lowest.
EUR/JPY then proceeded to crab sideways near the 125.80 level as the session continued. With that 'lifeline' wheelbarrowed to the big 3 US carmakers on Friday, the Yen became under more pressure.
The Euro gained strength against the US Dollar, opening higher at 1.3912 and moving up to just above 1.4045, its peak. With some all-important economic data coming out of the US this week there is some careful treasding going on at present. The data includes home sales and consumer spending.
Worth noting when planning yoru week - The market will be closed for trading on Thursday and Friday.
It was a fairly calm session ahead of the holiday, as Japan is closed tomorrow. The JPY lost some ground right across the board as the Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa was trying his hardest to weaken his own currency on the world markets. He talked it down as best he could. Japanese exports are becoming very expensive now.
USD/JPY opened near the lows of 89.23, and never looked like returning aftre its rise up to over the 90.20 level during the session. The pair remained near the big 90.00 level as the Europe session kicked off. Against the Euro, the Yen was beaten down from the lows of 124.15 early doors to about 126.15 being its lowest.
EUR/JPY then proceeded to crab sideways near the 125.80 level as the session continued. With that 'lifeline' wheelbarrowed to the big 3 US carmakers on Friday, the Yen became under more pressure.
The Euro gained strength against the US Dollar, opening higher at 1.3912 and moving up to just above 1.4045, its peak. With some all-important economic data coming out of the US this week there is some careful treasding going on at present. The data includes home sales and consumer spending.
Worth noting when planning yoru week - The market will be closed for trading on Thursday and Friday.
Friday, 19 December 2008
Forex Update - Fri 18Dec08 - Asian Session
Asia Session
News from Japan was as expected, with the Bank of Japan lowering interest rates from 0.3% to 0.1%. This rate cut was passed by a vote of 7 to 1.
The USD/JPY reacted from a starting point of 89.27 and launched itself to 89.77 just prior to the cut, but then fell back to 89.08 after the cut was announced. This up/down move followed a trading session of some quite dynamic moves in the USD/JPY pair, which had touched a high of 88.93 earlier in the session before dropping like a stone to 88.93 prior to the rate cut news.
EUR/JPY followed this choppy action as the Nikkei didn't know whetehr to stay in positive territory or negative, cycling between 127.10 and 128.20 during the trading session.
EUR/USD spent the day in a range, really, between 1.4203 and 1.4309, with spiking and fast-but-then moves some of the time.
EUR/GBP continued with the now unbelievable rise to new record highs, eventuyally topping out at 0.9554 before pulling back a little. Don't forget, just two months ago, the EUR/GBP was sitting back at near 0.7700 before starting its epic climb north to the current dizzy heights.
GBP/USD recovered from yesterday's lows of 1.4887, managing to hit a session high of 1.5187 before falling back a little to near 1.5110.
USD/CHF also recovered from yesterday's lows as well, after falling to a low level of 1.0416. The pair was closer to the 1.0850 level in Asian trade today.
It was a good week for us in Market Bytes so far, with over +700 pips made in intra-day trades. Who would have thought the sort of movement we have seen.
News from Japan was as expected, with the Bank of Japan lowering interest rates from 0.3% to 0.1%. This rate cut was passed by a vote of 7 to 1.
The USD/JPY reacted from a starting point of 89.27 and launched itself to 89.77 just prior to the cut, but then fell back to 89.08 after the cut was announced. This up/down move followed a trading session of some quite dynamic moves in the USD/JPY pair, which had touched a high of 88.93 earlier in the session before dropping like a stone to 88.93 prior to the rate cut news.
EUR/JPY followed this choppy action as the Nikkei didn't know whetehr to stay in positive territory or negative, cycling between 127.10 and 128.20 during the trading session.
EUR/USD spent the day in a range, really, between 1.4203 and 1.4309, with spiking and fast-but-then moves some of the time.
EUR/GBP continued with the now unbelievable rise to new record highs, eventuyally topping out at 0.9554 before pulling back a little. Don't forget, just two months ago, the EUR/GBP was sitting back at near 0.7700 before starting its epic climb north to the current dizzy heights.
GBP/USD recovered from yesterday's lows of 1.4887, managing to hit a session high of 1.5187 before falling back a little to near 1.5110.
USD/CHF also recovered from yesterday's lows as well, after falling to a low level of 1.0416. The pair was closer to the 1.0850 level in Asian trade today.
It was a good week for us in Market Bytes so far, with over +700 pips made in intra-day trades. Who would have thought the sort of movement we have seen.
Thursday, 18 December 2008
Forex - Intra-day Trade Update
This week in the Live Trading Room we have had a great time.
Today we are +433 pips to the better on intra-day trades. Yes, 433. A fantastic day. At close of play this evening we are some +700 pips up so far this week.
The intra-day alerts are sent out to all subscribers.
Join the Live Trading Room at Market Bytes.
Today we are +433 pips to the better on intra-day trades. Yes, 433. A fantastic day. At close of play this evening we are some +700 pips up so far this week.
The intra-day alerts are sent out to all subscribers.
Join the Live Trading Room at Market Bytes.
Forex Update - Friday 18Dec08, New York session
New York Session
The USD surged in New York trading, gaining back an nearly 500 pips from its overnight low against the EUR.
EUR/USD topped out around 1.4720, just beyond the 200-day moving average at 1.4708. Then it fell back to a low near 1.4180, before settling back in the mid-1.42 level.
The USD surge appeared to be primarily technical and position driven, with USD short positions covering very quickly on strong Dollar buying from Russian names.
However, as EUR/USD was looking like it was collapsing, the ECB announced it was lowering the rate it pays for deposits and raising the rate it charges to lend. This accelerated the EUR selling. But this ECB move was actually intended to discourage European banks from parking funds at the central bank, and encourage them to increase lending.
USD/JPY led the way higher, gaining over 2 Yen from yesterday's closing level. This was after the Japanese government said that they might intervene to stem the JPY's gains. They do want a weaker Yen. Thgeir exports are more and more expensive. USD/JPY rose to just above the big 90.00 level, before falling back to the mid-89 area. The big 90.00 level is a psychological and key resistance point.
The USD also strengthened against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, and CAD) as the commodities gave back recent gains. The price of the black stuff was now doewn under US$36 bbl, this after OPEC's larger than expected cut in production failed to make any impact, with global demand continues to fall.
US data today included weekly jobless claims, which came in just about as expected. Looks like there is further weakness there. The Philadelphia Fed index unexpectedly improved from -39.3 to -32.9 (expected -40.4), though the sub-indexes were not as impressive, while the November index of leading indicators declined -0.4% in line with expectations. Canadian October core retail sales (ex-autos) fell -1.1%, which was more than the expected -1.0%, whilst November leading indicators fell -0.7%, also worse than market forecasts of -0.4%.
Looking ahead to Asia, the markets will be looking for any changes to Japanese interest rates when the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision in the Tokyo afternoon. Latest Japanese press reports suggest the BOJ will keep rates steady at 0.30%, possibly disappointing those expecting a token rate cut of 15-20 bps. WE think they will come down. There doesn't seem to be an alternative. Not sure where the press get their ideas from, but we shall see.
Everyone will also be listening to the BoJ incase it refers to the current Yen strength, which would make it even more likely the Japansese government will be moving in to change things, intervening with some clout. Japanese exports are getting more and more expensive, and the Japanese are trying to get the strgnth of their Yen down, so to make them cheaper.
The USD surged in New York trading, gaining back an nearly 500 pips from its overnight low against the EUR.
EUR/USD topped out around 1.4720, just beyond the 200-day moving average at 1.4708. Then it fell back to a low near 1.4180, before settling back in the mid-1.42 level.
The USD surge appeared to be primarily technical and position driven, with USD short positions covering very quickly on strong Dollar buying from Russian names.
However, as EUR/USD was looking like it was collapsing, the ECB announced it was lowering the rate it pays for deposits and raising the rate it charges to lend. This accelerated the EUR selling. But this ECB move was actually intended to discourage European banks from parking funds at the central bank, and encourage them to increase lending.
USD/JPY led the way higher, gaining over 2 Yen from yesterday's closing level. This was after the Japanese government said that they might intervene to stem the JPY's gains. They do want a weaker Yen. Thgeir exports are more and more expensive. USD/JPY rose to just above the big 90.00 level, before falling back to the mid-89 area. The big 90.00 level is a psychological and key resistance point.
The USD also strengthened against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, and CAD) as the commodities gave back recent gains. The price of the black stuff was now doewn under US$36 bbl, this after OPEC's larger than expected cut in production failed to make any impact, with global demand continues to fall.
US data today included weekly jobless claims, which came in just about as expected. Looks like there is further weakness there. The Philadelphia Fed index unexpectedly improved from -39.3 to -32.9 (expected -40.4), though the sub-indexes were not as impressive, while the November index of leading indicators declined -0.4% in line with expectations. Canadian October core retail sales (ex-autos) fell -1.1%, which was more than the expected -1.0%, whilst November leading indicators fell -0.7%, also worse than market forecasts of -0.4%.
Looking ahead to Asia, the markets will be looking for any changes to Japanese interest rates when the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision in the Tokyo afternoon. Latest Japanese press reports suggest the BOJ will keep rates steady at 0.30%, possibly disappointing those expecting a token rate cut of 15-20 bps. WE think they will come down. There doesn't seem to be an alternative. Not sure where the press get their ideas from, but we shall see.
Everyone will also be listening to the BoJ incase it refers to the current Yen strength, which would make it even more likely the Japansese government will be moving in to change things, intervening with some clout. Japanese exports are getting more and more expensive, and the Japanese are trying to get the strgnth of their Yen down, so to make them cheaper.
Forex Update - Thurs18Dec08, Evening
New York Session.
The Dow Jones closed down 219.35 points at 8,604.99, the S&P down 19.08 points at 885.34, and the Nasdaq closed down 26.94 points at 1,552.37.
Forex Trading Update
Well, the Yanks fought back. The USD surged higher in New York trading, clawing back some 500 pips from its overnight low against the EUR.
EUR/USD hit the top at around 1.4720, which was just beyond the 200-day moving average of 1.4708. It fell back to a low near 1.4180, then settled on the mid-1.42 area. The USD 'surge' looked to be purely techincal, with USD shorts covering in extremely rapid fashion on strong Dollar buying from heavyweight Russian names. The Russians like Dollars.
But note, as EUR/USD was falling, the ECB announced it was now lowering the rate it pays for deposits and raising the rate it charges to lend, which caused an immediate panic to sell the EUR. But the ECB move was mainly intended to discourage the big European banks from just leaving extensive funds at the central bank and encourage them to increase lending.
USD/JPY pushed higher, with a 2 JPY gain from yesterday's closing level. This despite the Japanese Finance Minister's comments that it would be intervening in the Yen strength so to help the Japanese economy, including the now very expensive exports.
USD/JPY rose to just above the all imprtant 90.00 level, but did fall back to the mid 89 level, which made that imprtant '90'level as a new, solid resistance level. Watch that level.
The USD also gained strength against the commodity-bias currencies, such as mining favourites AUD, NZD, and CAD) as commodities fgell back from recent highs.
On to the black stuff, where oil also remained under pressure after the news from OPEC that it would be cutting production twice as much as expceted. Demand was still weak, with the oil price at an unbelievable level of US$36 bbl. Quite remarkable.
Back to the US, where US data today included the weekly jobless claims. These came in at around the 554k as expected, and remained highly elevated, which suggests some further weakness in US labour markets. The Philadelphia Fed index was up from -39.3 to -32.9 (expected -40.4), although the sub-indexes were not as impressive, with the November index of leading indicators ddown -0.4%, which was in line with forecasts.
Canadian October core retail sales (ex-autos) was down -1.1%, which was more than the expected -1.0%, as November leading indicators fell -0.7%, which was also worse than the expected market forecasts of -0.4%.
In Asia, we think the markets will be looking at the BoJ's decision on the Japanese interest rates, which arrive in Japan afternoon time. The feeling is that there won't be any change, which is very surprising, and won't do the JPY many favours.
The Forex markets will watch with interest the BOJ rate decision as there may be a mention of strength. If this is said, then expect some Japan government intervention and Dollar buying by the BoJ. The Japanese would like a weaker JPY, so to help the very pressured economy.
The Dow Jones closed down 219.35 points at 8,604.99, the S&P down 19.08 points at 885.34, and the Nasdaq closed down 26.94 points at 1,552.37.
Forex Trading Update
Well, the Yanks fought back. The USD surged higher in New York trading, clawing back some 500 pips from its overnight low against the EUR.
EUR/USD hit the top at around 1.4720, which was just beyond the 200-day moving average of 1.4708. It fell back to a low near 1.4180, then settled on the mid-1.42 area. The USD 'surge' looked to be purely techincal, with USD shorts covering in extremely rapid fashion on strong Dollar buying from heavyweight Russian names. The Russians like Dollars.
But note, as EUR/USD was falling, the ECB announced it was now lowering the rate it pays for deposits and raising the rate it charges to lend, which caused an immediate panic to sell the EUR. But the ECB move was mainly intended to discourage the big European banks from just leaving extensive funds at the central bank and encourage them to increase lending.
USD/JPY pushed higher, with a 2 JPY gain from yesterday's closing level. This despite the Japanese Finance Minister's comments that it would be intervening in the Yen strength so to help the Japanese economy, including the now very expensive exports.
USD/JPY rose to just above the all imprtant 90.00 level, but did fall back to the mid 89 level, which made that imprtant '90'level as a new, solid resistance level. Watch that level.
The USD also gained strength against the commodity-bias currencies, such as mining favourites AUD, NZD, and CAD) as commodities fgell back from recent highs.
On to the black stuff, where oil also remained under pressure after the news from OPEC that it would be cutting production twice as much as expceted. Demand was still weak, with the oil price at an unbelievable level of US$36 bbl. Quite remarkable.
Back to the US, where US data today included the weekly jobless claims. These came in at around the 554k as expected, and remained highly elevated, which suggests some further weakness in US labour markets. The Philadelphia Fed index was up from -39.3 to -32.9 (expected -40.4), although the sub-indexes were not as impressive, with the November index of leading indicators ddown -0.4%, which was in line with forecasts.
Canadian October core retail sales (ex-autos) was down -1.1%, which was more than the expected -1.0%, as November leading indicators fell -0.7%, which was also worse than the expected market forecasts of -0.4%.
In Asia, we think the markets will be looking at the BoJ's decision on the Japanese interest rates, which arrive in Japan afternoon time. The feeling is that there won't be any change, which is very surprising, and won't do the JPY many favours.
The Forex markets will watch with interest the BOJ rate decision as there may be a mention of strength. If this is said, then expect some Japan government intervention and Dollar buying by the BoJ. The Japanese would like a weaker JPY, so to help the very pressured economy.
Forex Update - Thurs 18Dec08 lunchtime
London Session
The USD fell further during this morning's session, but it was the EUR that was leading the pressure. EUR/USD broke through the massive level of 1.45000, which had the pair running up to as high as 1.4720.
Then the USD actually recovered higher against the JPY, as EUR/JPY moved over 5 JPY higher, up to a peak of just over 131.00 - all on the back of the EUR strength and those comments from Japan's Finance Minister that said they would be intervening to halt the strength of the JPY.
The EUR was also strong against other major currencies, with EUR/GBP surging yet again to make another new all-time highs near 95.50. Quite remarkable. Further selling of the USD, still blamed on the sero interest rate introduction and the current rising deficits, ssw that the EUR is now seeing demand from year-end funding needs as well as the relatively less generous liquidity provisions from the ECB.
Into Germany, where the German IFO survey was weaker than expected, with the headline business climate index dropping from 85.8 to 82.6 (worse than expected 84.0). The IFO's current conditions index fell from 94.9 to 88.8 (worse than expected 90.8), and the expectations survey declined from 77.6 to 76.8 (worse than expected 77.0).
The UK November retail sales were up a little, whcih wasn't really expected, rising 0.3% MoM against an expected decline of -0.6%.
The USD fell further during this morning's session, but it was the EUR that was leading the pressure. EUR/USD broke through the massive level of 1.45000, which had the pair running up to as high as 1.4720.
Then the USD actually recovered higher against the JPY, as EUR/JPY moved over 5 JPY higher, up to a peak of just over 131.00 - all on the back of the EUR strength and those comments from Japan's Finance Minister that said they would be intervening to halt the strength of the JPY.
The EUR was also strong against other major currencies, with EUR/GBP surging yet again to make another new all-time highs near 95.50. Quite remarkable. Further selling of the USD, still blamed on the sero interest rate introduction and the current rising deficits, ssw that the EUR is now seeing demand from year-end funding needs as well as the relatively less generous liquidity provisions from the ECB.
Into Germany, where the German IFO survey was weaker than expected, with the headline business climate index dropping from 85.8 to 82.6 (worse than expected 84.0). The IFO's current conditions index fell from 94.9 to 88.8 (worse than expected 90.8), and the expectations survey declined from 77.6 to 76.8 (worse than expected 77.0).
The UK November retail sales were up a little, whcih wasn't really expected, rising 0.3% MoM against an expected decline of -0.6%.
Forex Update - Thurs 18Dec08 morning
Forex Update - after the Asia Session, pre-London.
The Asian session saw the Yen reverse a 13-year high of 87.13 against the USD as profit takers moved in and traders cut positions ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision tomorrow. A rate cut is expected to be the same as the US result, where zero, or nigh-on, being the shout. The japanese Finance Minister said yesterday that they will intervene to stop the strength of the JPY, so traders are taking note.
USD/JPY moved from lows of 87.18 to just over 88.00 in Asian early trading, with rumours of a Bank of Japan intervention being imminent. The word on the floor was a rate of 0.1% or even zero being announced, down from 0.3%. The news comes tomorrow, with no cut in the rate expected to have a disastrous effect on the JPY. The japanese economy is suffering also due to the price of exports, which are becoming more and more expensive due to the strength of the JPY. The BoJ interest rate decision comes tomorrow.
EUR/JPY moved up from 125.60 to just over 127.20, with the Nikkei staying in positive territory and the price of the black stuff was under the US$40 bbl level at $39.65.
The EUR/USD carried on from the New York session, moving up slowly from 1.4393 to just above 1.4490. The US Dollar also suffered due to new highs in the GBP/USD of 1.5615, which spread in to other Asian currencies.
The Asian session saw the Yen reverse a 13-year high of 87.13 against the USD as profit takers moved in and traders cut positions ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate decision tomorrow. A rate cut is expected to be the same as the US result, where zero, or nigh-on, being the shout. The japanese Finance Minister said yesterday that they will intervene to stop the strength of the JPY, so traders are taking note.
USD/JPY moved from lows of 87.18 to just over 88.00 in Asian early trading, with rumours of a Bank of Japan intervention being imminent. The word on the floor was a rate of 0.1% or even zero being announced, down from 0.3%. The news comes tomorrow, with no cut in the rate expected to have a disastrous effect on the JPY. The japanese economy is suffering also due to the price of exports, which are becoming more and more expensive due to the strength of the JPY. The BoJ interest rate decision comes tomorrow.
EUR/JPY moved up from 125.60 to just over 127.20, with the Nikkei staying in positive territory and the price of the black stuff was under the US$40 bbl level at $39.65.
The EUR/USD carried on from the New York session, moving up slowly from 1.4393 to just above 1.4490. The US Dollar also suffered due to new highs in the GBP/USD of 1.5615, which spread in to other Asian currencies.
Wednesday, 17 December 2008
Forex - Market Update - Evening, Wed17Dec08
New York close.
The Dow Jones fell 99.8 points to 8,824.34, the S&P closed down 8.76 points to 904.42, and the Nasdaq closed down 10.58 points to 1,579.31.
The greenback continued its fall. The US Dollar fell further today in the New York session as general concerns over the 'printing cash' attitude and US budget deficits were on traders and investors' minds. Sell the dollar was the order of the day.
EUR had its biggest one-day move against the USD since its 1999 creation, up about 3 cents from around 1.4100 to a peak at up around 1.4440, before retracing a little and taking breath in a consolidation range near the highs.
USD/JPY also saw 13-year lows, down to as low of 87.15 from New York opening levels of around 88.50. News that Japan's Finance Minister Nakagawa had said that the Japanese government is prepared to take steps in the currency market to help their economy did little, saying they would be buying other currencies (read 'dollar'). Only yesterday Nakagawa had apparently said just the opposite, saying that Japan was not considering intervention at the moment.
EUR pushed against the weaker STG as well as USD, with GBP/EUR fell to all-time lows of 1.08 (EUR/GBP 0.9300) as the UK reported weak employment and retail sales.
On to the black stuff, where oil prices took little notice of the expected OPEC output cut and briefly dipped below the US$40 bbl level, before picking up a buck again to move to just over the US$44 bbl after OPEC announced a cut in production of 4.2m bbl per day (BPD), which was over 2m bbl more than expected. The bounce didn't hold as falling global demand returned to dealers' minds.
Wall Street also struggled for most of the day, but did turn up again later on, closing under 1% down. News of another former US bank writing back US$2 bln today brings the losses from the poor crdit and mortgage debts to US$1 trillion. Up to now.
The Dow Jones fell 99.8 points to 8,824.34, the S&P closed down 8.76 points to 904.42, and the Nasdaq closed down 10.58 points to 1,579.31.
The greenback continued its fall. The US Dollar fell further today in the New York session as general concerns over the 'printing cash' attitude and US budget deficits were on traders and investors' minds. Sell the dollar was the order of the day.
EUR had its biggest one-day move against the USD since its 1999 creation, up about 3 cents from around 1.4100 to a peak at up around 1.4440, before retracing a little and taking breath in a consolidation range near the highs.
USD/JPY also saw 13-year lows, down to as low of 87.15 from New York opening levels of around 88.50. News that Japan's Finance Minister Nakagawa had said that the Japanese government is prepared to take steps in the currency market to help their economy did little, saying they would be buying other currencies (read 'dollar'). Only yesterday Nakagawa had apparently said just the opposite, saying that Japan was not considering intervention at the moment.
EUR pushed against the weaker STG as well as USD, with GBP/EUR fell to all-time lows of 1.08 (EUR/GBP 0.9300) as the UK reported weak employment and retail sales.
On to the black stuff, where oil prices took little notice of the expected OPEC output cut and briefly dipped below the US$40 bbl level, before picking up a buck again to move to just over the US$44 bbl after OPEC announced a cut in production of 4.2m bbl per day (BPD), which was over 2m bbl more than expected. The bounce didn't hold as falling global demand returned to dealers' minds.
Wall Street also struggled for most of the day, but did turn up again later on, closing under 1% down. News of another former US bank writing back US$2 bln today brings the losses from the poor crdit and mortgage debts to US$1 trillion. Up to now.
Forex Update - Wed 17Dec08
The London session saw the US dollar recover from fresh overnight lows, but concerns remain about the dollar in the near, medium and long-term future following yesterday's Fed interest rate cut doen to 0% to 0.25%.
EUR/USD fell back into the mid 1.40's after peaking just below 1.4200 overnight.
GBP/USD suffered a bit of a set back after weaker than expected employment and retails sales figures were reported. The UK unemployment rate rose from 3.1% to 3.3%, whilst the number of jobless claims increased 75,700, which was worse than the 44,000 expected. Woolworths announced that its stores will close on 5th January, which will cause 37,500 jobs to go as well. The Confederation of British Industry retail sales index for December showed a drop to -55, which was much weaker than the expected -40. Expectations for January sales were -49, which shows there isn't much confidence amongst UK retailers. The GBP/USD fell quickly from around the 1.5600 level to a low near 1.5250, which sent the GBP/EUR flying higher to near 1.0800, another all-time low for STG.
The dollar remained closer to its lows against the JPY as investors showed some concern over world global growth prospects. European stocks had a mixed session.
The JPY crosses stayed capped for the time being.
US data out today is limited to the Q3 current account deficit, which shouldn't cause too many concerns. We feel that the US markets will continue to digest the massive and unexpected interest rate cut that the Feds made yesterday, saying it was trying to ease the pain...
Weekly oil inventories are also out later on. An expected OPEC production cut of 2m bbl from 01 January seems to have had little impact in the face of lessening demand, which is keeping the price of the black stuff outlook on weak side.
EUR/USD fell back into the mid 1.40's after peaking just below 1.4200 overnight.
GBP/USD suffered a bit of a set back after weaker than expected employment and retails sales figures were reported. The UK unemployment rate rose from 3.1% to 3.3%, whilst the number of jobless claims increased 75,700, which was worse than the 44,000 expected. Woolworths announced that its stores will close on 5th January, which will cause 37,500 jobs to go as well. The Confederation of British Industry retail sales index for December showed a drop to -55, which was much weaker than the expected -40. Expectations for January sales were -49, which shows there isn't much confidence amongst UK retailers. The GBP/USD fell quickly from around the 1.5600 level to a low near 1.5250, which sent the GBP/EUR flying higher to near 1.0800, another all-time low for STG.
The dollar remained closer to its lows against the JPY as investors showed some concern over world global growth prospects. European stocks had a mixed session.
The JPY crosses stayed capped for the time being.
US data out today is limited to the Q3 current account deficit, which shouldn't cause too many concerns. We feel that the US markets will continue to digest the massive and unexpected interest rate cut that the Feds made yesterday, saying it was trying to ease the pain...
Weekly oil inventories are also out later on. An expected OPEC production cut of 2m bbl from 01 January seems to have had little impact in the face of lessening demand, which is keeping the price of the black stuff outlook on weak side.
Forex Update - Asia session - 17Dec08
The heavy selling of the US dollar still continued after the news yesterday of the Fed's cut in interest rates to 0.25%. Yes, to one quarter of one per cent. Ben Bernanke makes history. The reaction was swift - and furious. The Greenback fell like a stone across the board and assets of risk soared higher. Despite the tremendous response, traders were not finished, as the Asia Session saw it continue, highlighted by USDJPY sinking to its lowest level since 1995.
No-one could have forecasted this. Just 2 weeks ago at the start of December, nobody would have guessed the levels toppled today would have been within reach.
Rewind to the first day of the month: EURUSD lingered at 1.2600, USDJPY sat around 95.50, and USDCHF hovered above 1.2100. Compare these rates, hit during today's trading: EURUSD neared 1.4200, USDJPY dropped to 88.50, and USDCHF held on to 1.1100.
In just a two week time frame, we have ironically seen violent tick-by-tick short-term volatility ease and directional trends methodically grip the market. In other words, currencies are moving at rocket pace, but the breed of price action has morphed. Today's activity is a microcosm of this description. The dollar weakness theme is definitive and trading best described as quite trendy, as opposed to voilatile or choppy.
Is the Japanese Yen Carry Trade officially extinct? After all, at this very moment, it may be worth nothing that US interest rates are now below those of Japan. Here is the next logical question: could it be conceivable that the FX market is on the cusp of a US dollar Carry Trade? Unthinkable? Or not? The repercussions of this potential asset shift in the world's reserve currency would be enormous, reaching virtually every country and asset class in existence.
In timely fashion pertaining to this discussion, the Bank of Japan decides its country's fate on interest rates tomorrow.
No-one could have forecasted this. Just 2 weeks ago at the start of December, nobody would have guessed the levels toppled today would have been within reach.
Rewind to the first day of the month: EURUSD lingered at 1.2600, USDJPY sat around 95.50, and USDCHF hovered above 1.2100. Compare these rates, hit during today's trading: EURUSD neared 1.4200, USDJPY dropped to 88.50, and USDCHF held on to 1.1100.
In just a two week time frame, we have ironically seen violent tick-by-tick short-term volatility ease and directional trends methodically grip the market. In other words, currencies are moving at rocket pace, but the breed of price action has morphed. Today's activity is a microcosm of this description. The dollar weakness theme is definitive and trading best described as quite trendy, as opposed to voilatile or choppy.
Is the Japanese Yen Carry Trade officially extinct? After all, at this very moment, it may be worth nothing that US interest rates are now below those of Japan. Here is the next logical question: could it be conceivable that the FX market is on the cusp of a US dollar Carry Trade? Unthinkable? Or not? The repercussions of this potential asset shift in the world's reserve currency would be enormous, reaching virtually every country and asset class in existence.
In timely fashion pertaining to this discussion, the Bank of Japan decides its country's fate on interest rates tomorrow.
Tuesday, 16 December 2008
Forex Update - Tues 16Dec08
The USD took a battering today. A hammering. The greenback collpased across the board as the Fed slashed its target Fed Funds rate to a range of between 0.00% and 0.25%. That is one quarter on one per cent.
More importantly, the Fed committed itself to 'exceptionally low interest rates for some time', and to 'employ all available tools' to help rejuvenate economic growth and maintain price stability. Specifically, the Fed said it would sustain its balance sheet at high levels and continue to buy US agency and mortgage-backed debt, and that it was also considering buying long-term US Treasury securities. Printing cash, in other words. Those steps amount to 'quantitative easing,' a process that involves flooding the economy with printing dollars to stimulate activity and prevent deflation.
For the USD, this amounts to a debasing of the currency's value as the supply of USD and USD-denominated debt is expected to massively increase.
EUR/USD, which had earlier extended its gains from around 1.3650 to just below 1.38 before the Fed announcement, rocketed higher and peaked around 1.4150, before profit-taking emerged and pushed the pair back down to the mid 1.40's.
USD/JPY fell from around 90.00 pre-Fed to a low near 88.60 before recovering back to 89.00. US stocks cheered the Fed's move and gained about 5% on the day. US Treasuries also rallied sharply, sending yields plunging by nearly 25 bps on US 10 year notes to an all-time low below 2.3%.
Earlier, US data showed the sharpest decline in headline CPI inflation since the 1980's as the YoY rate dropped from 3.7% to 1.1%. November housing starts and building permits also fell by more than expected, with starts down to 625K annualized rate from 771K and permits down to 616K from 730K, as the housing market continues to search for the bottom.
We feel that the USD now faces a difficult road ahead as the Fed plows forward with thjis massive 'quantitative easing' by flooding the world with lots and lots and lots of new USD bills. Major technical damage has been done and the main question is how much further will the USD weaken. Parachute, anyone?
The most optimistic case for the US Dollar is that the Fed's efforts result in an earlier than expected recovery in the US (they and we hope), but that will likely take months to become apparent, leaving the USD extremely vulnerable in the meantime.
More importantly, the Fed committed itself to 'exceptionally low interest rates for some time', and to 'employ all available tools' to help rejuvenate economic growth and maintain price stability. Specifically, the Fed said it would sustain its balance sheet at high levels and continue to buy US agency and mortgage-backed debt, and that it was also considering buying long-term US Treasury securities. Printing cash, in other words. Those steps amount to 'quantitative easing,' a process that involves flooding the economy with printing dollars to stimulate activity and prevent deflation.
For the USD, this amounts to a debasing of the currency's value as the supply of USD and USD-denominated debt is expected to massively increase.
EUR/USD, which had earlier extended its gains from around 1.3650 to just below 1.38 before the Fed announcement, rocketed higher and peaked around 1.4150, before profit-taking emerged and pushed the pair back down to the mid 1.40's.
USD/JPY fell from around 90.00 pre-Fed to a low near 88.60 before recovering back to 89.00. US stocks cheered the Fed's move and gained about 5% on the day. US Treasuries also rallied sharply, sending yields plunging by nearly 25 bps on US 10 year notes to an all-time low below 2.3%.
Earlier, US data showed the sharpest decline in headline CPI inflation since the 1980's as the YoY rate dropped from 3.7% to 1.1%. November housing starts and building permits also fell by more than expected, with starts down to 625K annualized rate from 771K and permits down to 616K from 730K, as the housing market continues to search for the bottom.
We feel that the USD now faces a difficult road ahead as the Fed plows forward with thjis massive 'quantitative easing' by flooding the world with lots and lots and lots of new USD bills. Major technical damage has been done and the main question is how much further will the USD weaken. Parachute, anyone?
The most optimistic case for the US Dollar is that the Fed's efforts result in an earlier than expected recovery in the US (they and we hope), but that will likely take months to become apparent, leaving the USD extremely vulnerable in the meantime.
Monday, 15 December 2008
Forex Update - Mon15Dec08
The USD came under intense pressure from the beginning of New York trading, with EUR/USD breaking above 1.3500 and extending gains to just beyond 1.3700 - a 200 pip run.
GBP/USD tried to play catch-up, rallying swiftly from just below the big 1.5000 level at the New York open to a high up near 1.5375/80, before falling back and settling around the 1.5300 level.
USD/JPY moderated its overnight weakness, and mostly recovered higher on the back of JPY-cross buying (EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY), but looked to settle under the 91.00 level.
USD weakness follows on from last week's decline and is being fueled by momentum and technical-based Green Back selling as various price levels get breached. Fundamentally, US Dollar weakness is being driven by a number of factors:
1) reduced credit market demand for USD's as central banks have flooded money markets with dollars;
2) reduced safe-haven buying of USD as global stock markets stabilize;
3) Weak incoming US data reports highlighting that sharp downturn currently unfolding in the US; and,
4) concerns that massive US borrowing requirements will inevitably debase the value of the USD.
Data in the US today remained on the weak side, but not as weak as some feared. The Fed's Empire manufacturing index fell from -25.4 to -25.8, not as bad as the forecast -28.0. October TIC data was largely ignored, really, but net long-term TIC inflows were negligible at $1.5 bio vs. an expected $40 bio. November Industrial production also fell less than expected, falling -0.6% instead of the expected -0.8%, with capacity utilisation falling more than forecast from 76.0 to 75.4%.
Lastly, the December NAHB housing index held fairly steady at the cycle low of 9, missing the expected improvement to 10, with buyer traffic held steady at the lows and sales expectations fell from 18 to 16 - basically signaling no improvement on the US housing front.
Key data in the Asian session ahead will be Japan's release of the October Tertiary Industry (Services) Index. In Australia, the RBA will release the minutes of their last meeting and the government will report on 3Q housing starts.
GBP/USD tried to play catch-up, rallying swiftly from just below the big 1.5000 level at the New York open to a high up near 1.5375/80, before falling back and settling around the 1.5300 level.
USD/JPY moderated its overnight weakness, and mostly recovered higher on the back of JPY-cross buying (EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY), but looked to settle under the 91.00 level.
USD weakness follows on from last week's decline and is being fueled by momentum and technical-based Green Back selling as various price levels get breached. Fundamentally, US Dollar weakness is being driven by a number of factors:
1) reduced credit market demand for USD's as central banks have flooded money markets with dollars;
2) reduced safe-haven buying of USD as global stock markets stabilize;
3) Weak incoming US data reports highlighting that sharp downturn currently unfolding in the US; and,
4) concerns that massive US borrowing requirements will inevitably debase the value of the USD.
Data in the US today remained on the weak side, but not as weak as some feared. The Fed's Empire manufacturing index fell from -25.4 to -25.8, not as bad as the forecast -28.0. October TIC data was largely ignored, really, but net long-term TIC inflows were negligible at $1.5 bio vs. an expected $40 bio. November Industrial production also fell less than expected, falling -0.6% instead of the expected -0.8%, with capacity utilisation falling more than forecast from 76.0 to 75.4%.
Lastly, the December NAHB housing index held fairly steady at the cycle low of 9, missing the expected improvement to 10, with buyer traffic held steady at the lows and sales expectations fell from 18 to 16 - basically signaling no improvement on the US housing front.
Key data in the Asian session ahead will be Japan's release of the October Tertiary Industry (Services) Index. In Australia, the RBA will release the minutes of their last meeting and the government will report on 3Q housing starts.
Forex - Live Room Trades - Mon15Dec08
Afternoon Forex Roundup - 15th Dec 2008
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; both closed out at breakeven. Closure occurred due to the slowness and almost stagnant market. Closed at break even. Not rushed closes.
- One intra-day short on USD/CAD intra-day alert - closed at +89 pips.
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4985
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4985, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.5010
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/JPY – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 90.70
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 90.70, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 90.95
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-Day Trade
Trade Alert: USD/CAD - Short trade closed
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (+89 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2370
Stop level: 1.2525
Target level: 1.2190
Closed: 1.2281 ( +89pips)
The pair was unable to break through the 1.2240 support level. The trade was closed on the move back towards the 1.2281 support level.
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London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; both closed out at breakeven. Closure occurred due to the slowness and almost stagnant market. Closed at break even. Not rushed closes.
- One intra-day short on USD/CAD intra-day alert - closed at +89 pips.
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4985
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4985, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.5010
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/JPY – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 90.70
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 90.70, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 90.95
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-Day Trade
Trade Alert: USD/CAD - Short trade closed
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (+89 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2370
Stop level: 1.2525
Target level: 1.2190
Closed: 1.2281 ( +89pips)
The pair was unable to break through the 1.2240 support level. The trade was closed on the move back towards the 1.2281 support level.
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Friday, 12 December 2008
Forex - Live Room Trades - Fri12Dec08
London Session
- 4 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins, 2 losses.
- 2 Intra-day alerts were closed this morning; +257 pips and +151 pips.
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3275
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3255, +20 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3305
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4963
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4927, +36 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4990
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3275
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3305, -30 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3305
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4878
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4903, -25 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4903
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Alerts Update
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+257 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 121.44
Stop level: 122.90
Target level: 118.38
Closed: 118.87 (+257 pips)
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+151 pips)
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 90.87
Stop level: 91.92
Target level: 89.00
Closed: 89.36 (+151 pips)
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- 4 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins, 2 losses.
- 2 Intra-day alerts were closed this morning; +257 pips and +151 pips.
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3275
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3255, +20 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3305
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4963
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4927, +36 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4990
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3275
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3305, -30 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3305
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4878
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4903, -25 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4903
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Alerts Update
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+257 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 121.44
Stop level: 122.90
Target level: 118.38
Closed: 118.87 (+257 pips)
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+151 pips)
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 90.87
Stop level: 91.92
Target level: 89.00
Closed: 89.36 (+151 pips)
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Forex - Market Update - Fri 12Dec08
In London this morning we saw some reversal to the extreme dollar weakness related to the US decision on the hoped-for bail out of the US car industry. Bankruptcy looks a possibility if there isn't some help from somewhere. Stocks globally took a hit - off 4% to 5%.
EUR/USD was up over 50 pips to 1.3350/60 after it began the session around the 1.3300 level. Continued dollar weakness could see the current strong €uro at the 1.35 level imminently. If the stock markets in Europe fal more, then the éuro rally could be pegged somewhat, though.
EUR/JPY was up over 140 pips to the 120.60/70 zone, and is now up nearly 300 pips from the overnight low levels now.
USD/JPY was up 70 ppips to the 90.30/40 level as well.
In New York there will be focus on the US economic data of producer prices and retail sales. With inflation worries now moving from the fore-front due to everything else that is going on, we are expecting the focus to be completely on the retail and economic data figures. The market is expecting a -2.0% decline for November, which will follow the very poor -2.8% figure for October. The ex-autos figure is expected to be -1.8%, a small improvement on the -2.2% figure for October. With the better than anticipated 'Black Friday' reported sales figures any worse retail figures than expected could see the stock markets fall sharply.
Regarding Forex, we expect some volatility in JPY pairs, with the USD/JPY expected to be one for heavy movement. This pairing will reflect both dollar weakness and risk aversion.
EUR/USD was up over 50 pips to 1.3350/60 after it began the session around the 1.3300 level. Continued dollar weakness could see the current strong €uro at the 1.35 level imminently. If the stock markets in Europe fal more, then the éuro rally could be pegged somewhat, though.
EUR/JPY was up over 140 pips to the 120.60/70 zone, and is now up nearly 300 pips from the overnight low levels now.
USD/JPY was up 70 ppips to the 90.30/40 level as well.
In New York there will be focus on the US economic data of producer prices and retail sales. With inflation worries now moving from the fore-front due to everything else that is going on, we are expecting the focus to be completely on the retail and economic data figures. The market is expecting a -2.0% decline for November, which will follow the very poor -2.8% figure for October. The ex-autos figure is expected to be -1.8%, a small improvement on the -2.2% figure for October. With the better than anticipated 'Black Friday' reported sales figures any worse retail figures than expected could see the stock markets fall sharply.
Regarding Forex, we expect some volatility in JPY pairs, with the USD/JPY expected to be one for heavy movement. This pairing will reflect both dollar weakness and risk aversion.
Thursday, 11 December 2008
Forex - Market Update - Thurs11Dec08
The overnight USD selloff continued into the New York session, with the poor economic data making things worse for the green back. News that the US trade deficit was now a staggering -US$57.2 bln for October, worsening from the -US$56.6 bln for September, didn't help the dollar. Then the latest initial jobless claims figure was published at a staggering 573,000 last week, which was worse than the 515,000 that was expected. The stock market responded with a 3% fall. The Bond yield for US 2-year paper fell -8 basis points to 0.77%, whilst the 10-year paper fell a similar amount to 2.60%.
EUR/USD rose a further 120 points, nearing the 1.3350/60 level as as the session came to a close. The 1.34 level was tested, but baulked on its first attempt. If there is a break then expect to see the next level, 1.35, hit in a hurry.
EUR/JPY pushed, and was up 110 points to the 122.00/10 region higher despite the poor showing on the stock market. USD/JPY was fairly even around the 91.40/50 as a result.
GBP/USD had a rally too, up some 120 pips to the 1.5030/40 area.
USD/CAD finsiehd down -35 pips at the 1.2360/70 level, despite falling some -200 pips earlier on when the price of the black stuff jumped past the US$47 bbl level.
EUR/USD rose a further 120 points, nearing the 1.3350/60 level as as the session came to a close. The 1.34 level was tested, but baulked on its first attempt. If there is a break then expect to see the next level, 1.35, hit in a hurry.
EUR/JPY pushed, and was up 110 points to the 122.00/10 region higher despite the poor showing on the stock market. USD/JPY was fairly even around the 91.40/50 as a result.
GBP/USD had a rally too, up some 120 pips to the 1.5030/40 area.
USD/CAD finsiehd down -35 pips at the 1.2360/70 level, despite falling some -200 pips earlier on when the price of the black stuff jumped past the US$47 bbl level.
Market Wrap, Thurs11Dec08
The FTSE 100 closed up 21.41 points at 4,388.69, whilst the FTSE 250 was up 56.02 points at 6,320.39, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps were down 7.84 points at 1,805.47. Modest gains today on the bigger blue chips. The miners and oil stocks leading the way, as oil pushed thru' US$47 bbl.
Over the pond, Wall Street was down in morningg trading. Concerns about the massive bailout of the car industry as well as the latest initial jobless claims figure bein at a 6-month high caused a bit os a sell off. By the time London closed the DJI was down 37 points at 8,724, the S&P500 down 4 points at 895, and the Nasdaq down 11 points at 1,554.
Over the pond, Wall Street was down in morningg trading. Concerns about the massive bailout of the car industry as well as the latest initial jobless claims figure bein at a 6-month high caused a bit os a sell off. By the time London closed the DJI was down 37 points at 8,724, the S&P500 down 4 points at 895, and the Nasdaq down 11 points at 1,554.
Forex - Live Room Trades - Thurs 11Dec08
What a morning!
London Session
- There were no live room calls today however, trading opportunities did occur afterwards.
- There were clear breaks of the levels being discussed as possible trades.
- We had an excellent close on the intra-day USD/CAD short trade, making 272 pips.
USD/JPY - Short trade
- During the Live Room session we were looking for a clear break of the 92.20 level. You can see from the chart below that the break occurred resulting in the pair falling around 100 pips. We would have banked our profits at 91.92 and 91.52 support levels.
USD/CAD – Short trade
- We were looking for the break of 1.2485 level during the Live Room session. Looking at the chart you can see that there was a direct decline once that level was breached, penetrating through the support levels at 1.2444 and 1.2375.
- There was an intra-day alert trade already running from yesterday. The short was called at 1.2587 and closed this afternoon at 1.2315, resulting in a profit of 272 pips. YES - 272 PIPS !
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London Session
- There were no live room calls today however, trading opportunities did occur afterwards.
- There were clear breaks of the levels being discussed as possible trades.
- We had an excellent close on the intra-day USD/CAD short trade, making 272 pips.
USD/JPY - Short trade
- During the Live Room session we were looking for a clear break of the 92.20 level. You can see from the chart below that the break occurred resulting in the pair falling around 100 pips. We would have banked our profits at 91.92 and 91.52 support levels.
USD/CAD – Short trade
- We were looking for the break of 1.2485 level during the Live Room session. Looking at the chart you can see that there was a direct decline once that level was breached, penetrating through the support levels at 1.2444 and 1.2375.
- There was an intra-day alert trade already running from yesterday. The short was called at 1.2587 and closed this afternoon at 1.2315, resulting in a profit of 272 pips. YES - 272 PIPS !
Come and join the Live Trading Room - www.marketbytes.com
Wednesday, 10 December 2008
Market Wrap, Wed10Dec08
The FTSE 100 closed down almost 14 points today at 4,367.28. No real pattern today. Britain's economy shrank by 1% in 3 months to end of November, with things set to get worse. Not much economic news to report today, here or over the pond.
As mentioned this morning, news from Rio Tinto that it was shedding 14k jobs and was cutting other costs helped the miners. It added that it would be delaying its $6 bln investment into a Guinea iron ore project as part of a planned $10 bln cutback next year. Rio closed up 256p at 1,514p.
The banks were down between 1% and 6% today. But they did have two good days Mon/Tues.
With the price of the black stuff moving about US$44 bbl, BP, RD Shell and BG Group were all up.
Fancy a burger? Gourmet Burger King owner, Clapham House, announed turnover up over 20% in its restaurants, with figures as good as expected.
Fancy a pint? Marston’s was up today after the pub and brewing group said it had managed to extend its loans facility to 2013.
Electrical goods retailer DSG International closed up 25% after a broker upgrade to 'buy' rating, with hopes on some of its offers in its Currys and PC world stores would see a better season than previously expected, but target price was lowered.
Rising supermarket Morrisons said that sales were up 12.3% for last month.
As mentioned this morning, news from Rio Tinto that it was shedding 14k jobs and was cutting other costs helped the miners. It added that it would be delaying its $6 bln investment into a Guinea iron ore project as part of a planned $10 bln cutback next year. Rio closed up 256p at 1,514p.
The banks were down between 1% and 6% today. But they did have two good days Mon/Tues.
With the price of the black stuff moving about US$44 bbl, BP, RD Shell and BG Group were all up.
Fancy a burger? Gourmet Burger King owner, Clapham House, announed turnover up over 20% in its restaurants, with figures as good as expected.
Fancy a pint? Marston’s was up today after the pub and brewing group said it had managed to extend its loans facility to 2013.
Electrical goods retailer DSG International closed up 25% after a broker upgrade to 'buy' rating, with hopes on some of its offers in its Currys and PC world stores would see a better season than previously expected, but target price was lowered.
Rising supermarket Morrisons said that sales were up 12.3% for last month.
Forex - Live Room Trades - Wed10Dec08
A very nice morning in the Live room. Two trades called and two nice profits...
Afternoon Forex Roundup - 10th December 2008
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; both closed with nice profits.
EUR/JPY - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 120.27
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 120.53, +26 (full position)
- Stop: 120.00
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2625
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level: 1.2655, +30 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2600
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
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Afternoon Forex Roundup - 10th December 2008
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; both closed with nice profits.
EUR/JPY - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 120.27
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 120.53, +26 (full position)
- Stop: 120.00
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2625
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level: 1.2655, +30 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2600
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
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Forex - Morning Update - Wed10Dec08
Forex Morning Update.
It wasn't a volatile morning here in London, with inflation concerns in Europe easing as news from German wholesale prices fell by a heavy 3.3% in November, which was more than expected. News from France was that national economic activity was down 2.7% for industrial production for October, also further lower than expected.
EUR/USD was down -30 pips, not far off the 1.2950 level, as we approach the New York open. The important 1.30 level is a strong resistance for the upside, with a break through of the 1.3010 level being a strong indicator of good strength.
USD/JPY was quiet, really, with a 15 pip or so rise towards the 92.60/70 level, whilst the EUR/JPY was down about -5 pips nearing the 120.00/10 arena.
GBP/USD was also fairly lack-lustre, up about 10 pips to around 1.4820/30.
USD/CAD was up about 15 pips towards the 1.2570/80 level.
All not very exciting, but trades are there. Two were successful in the Live Room this morning.
It wasn't a volatile morning here in London, with inflation concerns in Europe easing as news from German wholesale prices fell by a heavy 3.3% in November, which was more than expected. News from France was that national economic activity was down 2.7% for industrial production for October, also further lower than expected.
EUR/USD was down -30 pips, not far off the 1.2950 level, as we approach the New York open. The important 1.30 level is a strong resistance for the upside, with a break through of the 1.3010 level being a strong indicator of good strength.
USD/JPY was quiet, really, with a 15 pip or so rise towards the 92.60/70 level, whilst the EUR/JPY was down about -5 pips nearing the 120.00/10 arena.
GBP/USD was also fairly lack-lustre, up about 10 pips to around 1.4820/30.
USD/CAD was up about 15 pips towards the 1.2570/80 level.
All not very exciting, but trades are there. Two were successful in the Live Room this morning.
Morning Markets, Wed10Dec08
The FTSE was down about 45 points this morning, an almost expected pull back after the 8.4% rise over Monday & Tuesday. But let's not forget the FTSE is still down 33% this year. We aren't thinking that this is the strat of a rally just yet.
Last night over the pond the DJI was down nearly 120 points and the Nasdaq down nearly 10 points by the time Lonbdon closed. Aapprenetly the US Fed Reserver is actually considering issuing its own debt for the first time. News from the White House is that a deal may be done any day now to help the seriously troubled US car industry.
Here in London this morning the miners were doing well after Rio Tinto announced massive job cuts, with 14,000 places going. Rio is geared to the tune of $40 bln of debt, but the share price was up over 10% this morning. Firmer metal prices also helped the mining sector. BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Xstrata, Vedanta Resources, Antofagasta, ENRC and Kazakhmys were up between 2.4% and 7% too.
On to the black stuff, where oil was at under US$43 bbl. That is over $103 down from that peak during the summer. BP and RD Shell were off 1.25% this morning, whilst Tullow Oil was down 0.5%.
News that Britain's economy shrank by a full percentage point in 3 months to November didn't help. Press news said that Alistair "I still have no idea and keep announcing pathetic and obviously zero assistance to the economy and business" Darling is supposed to be considering an extension of the taxpayer guarantees to cover business lending. This is an admission that the economy is still lacking credit and finance despite the £50 bln bank recapitalisation.
The banks were down this morning, with Barclays, RBS, HSBC, Lloyds TSB, Royal and Standard Chartered down between 1.2% and 2.2%, but they did rally the last couple of days.
Last night over the pond the DJI was down nearly 120 points and the Nasdaq down nearly 10 points by the time Lonbdon closed. Aapprenetly the US Fed Reserver is actually considering issuing its own debt for the first time. News from the White House is that a deal may be done any day now to help the seriously troubled US car industry.
Here in London this morning the miners were doing well after Rio Tinto announced massive job cuts, with 14,000 places going. Rio is geared to the tune of $40 bln of debt, but the share price was up over 10% this morning. Firmer metal prices also helped the mining sector. BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Xstrata, Vedanta Resources, Antofagasta, ENRC and Kazakhmys were up between 2.4% and 7% too.
On to the black stuff, where oil was at under US$43 bbl. That is over $103 down from that peak during the summer. BP and RD Shell were off 1.25% this morning, whilst Tullow Oil was down 0.5%.
News that Britain's economy shrank by a full percentage point in 3 months to November didn't help. Press news said that Alistair "I still have no idea and keep announcing pathetic and obviously zero assistance to the economy and business" Darling is supposed to be considering an extension of the taxpayer guarantees to cover business lending. This is an admission that the economy is still lacking credit and finance despite the £50 bln bank recapitalisation.
The banks were down this morning, with Barclays, RBS, HSBC, Lloyds TSB, Royal and Standard Chartered down between 1.2% and 2.2%, but they did rally the last couple of days.
Tuesday, 9 December 2008
Forex - Live Room Trades - Tues09Dec08
Afternoon Forex Roundup - 9th December 2008
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; both closed with good profits.
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4803
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4771, +32 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 1.4803, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4828
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
AUD/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6543
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6505, +38 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 0.6520, +23 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 0.6568
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come & join the Forex Live Room now at www.marketbytes.com
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; both closed with good profits.
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4803
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4771, +32 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 1.4803, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4828
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
AUD/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6543
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6505, +38 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 0.6520, +23 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 0.6568
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come & join the Forex Live Room now at www.marketbytes.com
Forex Forecast - Tues09Dec08
We post this on the members' blog each morning.
Today's FX forecast
General Outlook
There were some moves that developed as expected yesterday but also some moves that surprised. Overall I still feel this is working more in line with the medium term view of more Dollar losses against the European currencies and the Aussie while the recovery in Dollar-Yen and Euro-Yen was a welcome addition to the moves in line with the medium term expectation although on the day was against bias.
First of all, the rally in the Euro was solid and while there may be some further room to edge higher we must now be on our guard for an earlier correction lower. I should remind once again that this anticipated decline (whether it occurs directly or from marginal new highs) should be the final leg in the long triangular correction from the 1.3297 high. Thus always bear in mind the larger risk and don’t fight any strong break higher.
Now, this fits in well with the Pound which actually surprised me with the degree of strength it saw above even my higher 1.5002 resistance. Never-the-less, with the Euro expected to fall this also presents the Pound with a final window to see it lower. Indeed, this decline needs to be quite sharp as I feel the 1.40 area is the most ideal target. However, a higher target is at 1.4228.
Dollar-Yen was a surprise – but not completely. I had only preferred the downside yesterday due to the momentum picture. I can’t say that it has broken above key resistance levels to confirm a break higher so we’ll still need to be on our guard, but the signs are at least positive – and this goes hand in hand with Euro-Yen. The only problem with the latter is the conflict between the declining Euro expectation and the rising Dollar-Yen which could keep it in a sideways range in the short term. Here too, price hasn’t confirmed a break higher but much more than yesterday’s high is going to add weight to the bullish argument.
Dollar-Canada now looks bearish for 1.2301 and 1.2089-23 at least while the Aussie looks like building on yesterday’s gains with carry trades a potential short term play over the turn of the year.
Good luck.
Today's FX forecast
General Outlook
There were some moves that developed as expected yesterday but also some moves that surprised. Overall I still feel this is working more in line with the medium term view of more Dollar losses against the European currencies and the Aussie while the recovery in Dollar-Yen and Euro-Yen was a welcome addition to the moves in line with the medium term expectation although on the day was against bias.
First of all, the rally in the Euro was solid and while there may be some further room to edge higher we must now be on our guard for an earlier correction lower. I should remind once again that this anticipated decline (whether it occurs directly or from marginal new highs) should be the final leg in the long triangular correction from the 1.3297 high. Thus always bear in mind the larger risk and don’t fight any strong break higher.
Now, this fits in well with the Pound which actually surprised me with the degree of strength it saw above even my higher 1.5002 resistance. Never-the-less, with the Euro expected to fall this also presents the Pound with a final window to see it lower. Indeed, this decline needs to be quite sharp as I feel the 1.40 area is the most ideal target. However, a higher target is at 1.4228.
Dollar-Yen was a surprise – but not completely. I had only preferred the downside yesterday due to the momentum picture. I can’t say that it has broken above key resistance levels to confirm a break higher so we’ll still need to be on our guard, but the signs are at least positive – and this goes hand in hand with Euro-Yen. The only problem with the latter is the conflict between the declining Euro expectation and the rising Dollar-Yen which could keep it in a sideways range in the short term. Here too, price hasn’t confirmed a break higher but much more than yesterday’s high is going to add weight to the bullish argument.
Dollar-Canada now looks bearish for 1.2301 and 1.2089-23 at least while the Aussie looks like building on yesterday’s gains with carry trades a potential short term play over the turn of the year.
Good luck.
Monday, 8 December 2008
Forex - Live Room Trade & Update, Monday 08Dec08
Just one trade in the Live Room this morning, but it was a good one. A short call on USD-CAD.
London Session
- 1 Live Room trade call today; closed the trade with excellent profit.
USD/CAD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2613
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.2538, +75 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2638
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come and join the Live Room now - www.marketbytes.com
London Session
- 1 Live Room trade call today; closed the trade with excellent profit.
USD/CAD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2613
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.2538, +75 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2638
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come and join the Live Room now - www.marketbytes.com
Thursday, 4 December 2008
Forex - Live Room Trades & Afternoon Round Up - Thurs04Dec08
Forex Round Up. Thursday, 4th December 2008.
Some decent break outs.
London Session
- We had 4 Live Room Calls today, all 4 trades made decent profits.
- Two intra-day alert trades were closed this morning, with 1 win and 1 loss.
- The dollar showed further strength, especially across the European pairs.
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4695
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.4663, +32 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.4695, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4720
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2600
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.2560, +40 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.2600, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.2625
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2112
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.1.2120, +8 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2087
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2631
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.2645, +14 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.2631, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.2606
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Trade Alerts - update
USDCAD - Long trade closed (+43 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2547
Stop level: 1.2443
Target level: 1.2663
Closed: 1.2590 (+43 pips)
USDJPY - Long trade closed (-81 pips)
Open Long: USD/JPY @ 93.28
Stop level: 92.47
Target level: 94.66
Closed: 92.47 (-81 pips)
Stop triggered
Some decent break outs.
London Session
- We had 4 Live Room Calls today, all 4 trades made decent profits.
- Two intra-day alert trades were closed this morning, with 1 win and 1 loss.
- The dollar showed further strength, especially across the European pairs.
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4695
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.4663, +32 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.4695, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4720
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2600
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.2560, +40 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.2600, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.2625
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2112
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.1.2120, +8 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2087
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2631
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.2645, +14 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.2631, +0 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.2606
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Trade Alerts - update
USDCAD - Long trade closed (+43 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2547
Stop level: 1.2443
Target level: 1.2663
Closed: 1.2590 (+43 pips)
USDJPY - Long trade closed (-81 pips)
Open Long: USD/JPY @ 93.28
Stop level: 92.47
Target level: 94.66
Closed: 92.47 (-81 pips)
Stop triggered
Forex - Call Alert - Thurs 04Dec08
Market Bytes has launched an intra-day e-mail alert system that sends trades during the day. This kicked off yesterday. Here is an example:
Thu 04/12/2008 04:33
USDCAD - Long trade open
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2547
Stop level: 1.2443
Target level: 1.2663
Thu 04/12/2008 05:37
USDCAD - Long trade closed (+43 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2547
Stop level: 1.2443
Target level: 1.2663
Closed: 1.2590 (+43 pips)
Come and join the www.MarketBytes.com Live Room.
Thu 04/12/2008 04:33
USDCAD - Long trade open
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2547
Stop level: 1.2443
Target level: 1.2663
Thu 04/12/2008 05:37
USDCAD - Long trade closed (+43 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2547
Stop level: 1.2443
Target level: 1.2663
Closed: 1.2590 (+43 pips)
Come and join the www.MarketBytes.com Live Room.
Wednesday, 3 December 2008
Forex - LIve Room Trades - Wed03Dec08
London Session
- We had 3 Live Room Calls today, 2 trades making profits and 1 stopped out.
- After a slow start to the session there was dollar strength across the board.
- The pound was particularly weak, falling 250 pips before recovering slightly.
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4826
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.4792, +34 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.4780, +46 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4851
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2661
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.2651, +10 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2686
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4911
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.4886, -25 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4851
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
- We had 3 Live Room Calls today, 2 trades making profits and 1 stopped out.
- After a slow start to the session there was dollar strength across the board.
- The pound was particularly weak, falling 250 pips before recovering slightly.
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4826
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.4792, +34 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 1.4780, +46 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4851
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2661
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level 1.2651, +10 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2686
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4911
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.4886, -25 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4851
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
Forex - Live Room Trades - Tues 02Dec08
Tuesday, Dec. 2nd 2008 10:43 AM
Forex Roundup – 2nd December 2008
London Session
- We had 2 Live Room Calls, 1 trade making good profit and the other closed at breakeven.
- 2 Intra-day alerts were also closed during the session, both making good profits.
EUR/JPY - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 117.20
- Trade: Break of key support level
- 1st Level 116.90, +30 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 116.70, +50 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 117.75
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2065
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.2065, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2065
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Trade Alerts
USD/JPY - Short closed (+46 pips)
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 93.46
Stop level: 94.30
Target level: 92.51
Closed: 93.00 (+46 pips)
GBP/USD - Short closed (+56 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4876
Stop level: 1.4950
Target level: 1.4734
Closed: 1.4820 (+56 pips)
Trades e-mailed during the day. www.marketbytes.com. Come and join the Live Room.
Forex Roundup – 2nd December 2008
London Session
- We had 2 Live Room Calls, 1 trade making good profit and the other closed at breakeven.
- 2 Intra-day alerts were also closed during the session, both making good profits.
EUR/JPY - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 117.20
- Trade: Break of key support level
- 1st Level 116.90, +30 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 116.70, +50 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 117.75
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF - Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2065
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level 1.2065, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2065
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Trade Alerts
USD/JPY - Short closed (+46 pips)
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 93.46
Stop level: 94.30
Target level: 92.51
Closed: 93.00 (+46 pips)
GBP/USD - Short closed (+56 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4876
Stop level: 1.4950
Target level: 1.4734
Closed: 1.4820 (+56 pips)
Trades e-mailed during the day. www.marketbytes.com. Come and join the Live Room.
Monday, 1 December 2008
Forex - Live Room Trades - Mon01Dec08
After a very slow and quiet end to the week last week, this week has started very well indeed. Some decent trades this morning in the Live Room, with some break outs as expected and forecasted.
All planned trades are available in the members' area of the www.marketbytes.com website each monring from 06:30.
Afternoon Forex Roundup – 1st December 2008
London Session
- This morning saw strength in the dollar, with the pound looking particularly weak.
- We had 2 Live Room Calls, both trades making excellent profit.
- 2 Intra-day alerts were also closed during the session, both making 100+ pips profit.
USD/JPY - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 95.15
- Trade: Break of support level on the 15min chart
- 1st Level 94.89, +26 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 94.81, +34 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 95.40
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.5257
- Trade: Break of support level on the 15min chart
- 1st Level 1.5221, +36 (1/2 position)
-2nd Level 1.5174, +83 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.5282
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Trade Alerts
GBP/USD - Short closed (+135 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.5311
Stop level: 1.5510
Target level: 1.5121
Closed: 1.5176 (+135 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short closed (+105 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.73
Stop level: 123.00
Target level: 118.60
Closed: 119.68 (+105 pips)
Forex Live Room - Daily - www.marketbytes.com
All planned trades are available in the members' area of the www.marketbytes.com website each monring from 06:30.
Afternoon Forex Roundup – 1st December 2008
London Session
- This morning saw strength in the dollar, with the pound looking particularly weak.
- We had 2 Live Room Calls, both trades making excellent profit.
- 2 Intra-day alerts were also closed during the session, both making 100+ pips profit.
USD/JPY - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 95.15
- Trade: Break of support level on the 15min chart
- 1st Level 94.89, +26 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level 94.81, +34 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 95.40
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD - Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.5257
- Trade: Break of support level on the 15min chart
- 1st Level 1.5221, +36 (1/2 position)
-2nd Level 1.5174, +83 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.5282
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day Trade Alerts
GBP/USD - Short closed (+135 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.5311
Stop level: 1.5510
Target level: 1.5121
Closed: 1.5176 (+135 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short closed (+105 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.73
Stop level: 123.00
Target level: 118.60
Closed: 119.68 (+105 pips)
Forex Live Room - Daily - www.marketbytes.com
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