Euro Weakening - Pound gains Strength
The Euro was at Session Lows after New York opened, whilts Sterling was up at its highs. The €uro fell to session lows Friday morning as the UK pound actually hit session highs against the US dollar, giving a sign of the contrasting views that have emerged on the European currencies this week.
The €uro fell to a new one-week low of $1.2794 as US stocks fell back on opening today, sending investors to the safety of the US dollar.
Meanwhile, this weaker €uro helped the pound to become mpore attractivfe, prompting a high of $1.4468 this afternoon. The pound looked oversold, with all the bad news built in to the trading price. We feel the €uro needs some correcting, as does the dollar, despite being 'the dollar'. STG had been at a 23-year low against the USD, and with a feeling that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates further, towards the zero level, there could be a fresh boost to the gloomy economy.
It is thought that in Eurozone, despite weak data coming out, expectations are that the European Central Bank (ECB) may keep interest rates where they are when they give their decision next Thursdaym eveb though there is still great uncertainty over the region's economic outlook, with more bad news to come.
When the US opened a couple of hours ago the €uro was at $1.2839, down from $1.2961 last nightm whilst the US dollar was at JPY 89.79, a smidge down from JPY 89.84.
The €uro was at JPY 115.30, down from JPY 116.47.
The UK STG Pound was at US$1.4458, up from US$1.4331.
The USD was at CHF 1.1594, up from CHF 1.1530 last night.
When risk appetite is low investors tend to buy the US dollar because it is the reserve currency of the world. With most commodities actually priced in US dollars, especially oil, the greenback gets a kick when these assets are sold off during periods of high uncertainty.
Also, weakness in the €uro is now afoot due to the weak data from Eurozone this morning. The European Union's official statistics agency, Eurostat, said that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone fell to 1.1% in January, down from 1.6% in December, which is near a 10-year low. This was well below economist expectations. It was also reported that the euro zone's unemployment rate rose to a 2-year high of 8.0% in December, up a smidge from NOvember's figure of 7.9%. This rising due to more companies shedding staff as the whole of Europe fights to survive the new recession.
Have a good weekend.
Friday, 30 January 2009
Thursday, 29 January 2009
Forex Live Trading Room - Morning Summary - Thurs 29Jan09
It was a fairly lack-lustre morning this morning, but we still got 4 intra-day trades on.
London Session
- No Live Room trade call today.
- 4 Intra-day trade calls; 2 wins, 1 breakeven, 1 trade still open.
Intra-day trades
EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+39 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/USD @ 1.3101
Stop level: 1.3220
Target level: 1.2870
Closed: 1.3062 (+39 pips)
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+0 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4150
Stop level: 1.4240
Target level: 1.3905
Closed: 1.4150 (+0 pips)
GBP/USD - Long trade opened (+143 pips)
Opened Long: GBP/USD @ 1.4231
Stop level: 1.4135
Target level: 1.4480
Closed: 1.4374 (+143 pips)
The Pound made a high of 1.4414 and the trade was closed on retracement to the 1.4374, original resistant level.
USD/JPY - Short trade still open
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 89.80
Stop level: 90.85
Target level: 88.00
Break of first support level, refer to Morning Call.
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London Session
- No Live Room trade call today.
- 4 Intra-day trade calls; 2 wins, 1 breakeven, 1 trade still open.
Intra-day trades
EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+39 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/USD @ 1.3101
Stop level: 1.3220
Target level: 1.2870
Closed: 1.3062 (+39 pips)
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+0 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4150
Stop level: 1.4240
Target level: 1.3905
Closed: 1.4150 (+0 pips)
GBP/USD - Long trade opened (+143 pips)
Opened Long: GBP/USD @ 1.4231
Stop level: 1.4135
Target level: 1.4480
Closed: 1.4374 (+143 pips)
The Pound made a high of 1.4414 and the trade was closed on retracement to the 1.4374, original resistant level.
USD/JPY - Short trade still open
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 89.80
Stop level: 90.85
Target level: 88.00
Break of first support level, refer to Morning Call.
Come & Join the REAL Pro's. www.marketbytes.com
Forex Market Update - Thurs 29Jan09
The FTSE was down nearly 1% early doors today. The miners and metals fell back, as did the banks, with some profit taking after 3 days of gains.
Onto FOREX, where the main news was the the Canadian bail-out plan, err, sorry, we mean stimulous package, won't be helping the Canadian economy as much as hoped. the larger than expected package may be hoped to help, but analysts feel that the heavy reliant on commodities will cause the CAD to remain unloved for the moment. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is hoping that the CAD$85 bln 5-year package will also help save his under pressure government, and that the CAD will gain some strength and become more attractive. We expect some weakness moving forward. Maybe the USD/CAD 1.30 level, up from the ~1.22 level now.
Continued weakness in metal and commodity prices will actually pressurtise the Loonie (CAD) even more, we feel, as global risk aversion is becoming more important. Canada hasn't felt as much of the credit crunch as the rest of us. Even Eastern Europe will be getting some of it. we think they've been wondering what all the fuss is about up 'til now.
Despite these continued efforts by the US Fed Res and other governments to stimulate their economies, there seems to be very little hard evidence that current credit conditions are actually easing sufficiently. Nor is anyone seeing anything like a recovery in their national property markets, which would be seen as positive. Instead of this, we see unemployment levels rising steadily, which will have repercussions such as global demand continuing to shrink. This will put weight on the Canadian Loonie Dollar, for sure.
On to the black stuff, where a small rally over the last week seems to have given some hope to OPEC, the outlook for demand continues to deteriorate. This will also add pressure on to commodity prices. Which gives more stress to the Loonie CAD...
This morning the US dollar moved up to just shy of CAD 1.22, up from CAD 1.2151 last night.
The US dollar was higher against most other majors after the Fed Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged (!! 0 to 0.25%), but did pledge to to take all steps necessary to ease monetary conditions. There was some more good feeling on news that the US Treasury may even remove 'toxic assets' from some bank balance sheets, which went down well. the Dow Jones liked the news, anyway.
The €uro fell against the USD to $1.3087, down from $1.3144.
The USD fell back a little against the Japanese Yen to JPY 90.15, down about 15 pips from JPY 90.30.
The €uro was also down against the Yen at JPY 117.91, down from JPY 118.74.
Onto FOREX, where the main news was the the Canadian bail-out plan, err, sorry, we mean stimulous package, won't be helping the Canadian economy as much as hoped. the larger than expected package may be hoped to help, but analysts feel that the heavy reliant on commodities will cause the CAD to remain unloved for the moment. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is hoping that the CAD$85 bln 5-year package will also help save his under pressure government, and that the CAD will gain some strength and become more attractive. We expect some weakness moving forward. Maybe the USD/CAD 1.30 level, up from the ~1.22 level now.
Continued weakness in metal and commodity prices will actually pressurtise the Loonie (CAD) even more, we feel, as global risk aversion is becoming more important. Canada hasn't felt as much of the credit crunch as the rest of us. Even Eastern Europe will be getting some of it. we think they've been wondering what all the fuss is about up 'til now.
Despite these continued efforts by the US Fed Res and other governments to stimulate their economies, there seems to be very little hard evidence that current credit conditions are actually easing sufficiently. Nor is anyone seeing anything like a recovery in their national property markets, which would be seen as positive. Instead of this, we see unemployment levels rising steadily, which will have repercussions such as global demand continuing to shrink. This will put weight on the Canadian Loonie Dollar, for sure.
On to the black stuff, where a small rally over the last week seems to have given some hope to OPEC, the outlook for demand continues to deteriorate. This will also add pressure on to commodity prices. Which gives more stress to the Loonie CAD...
This morning the US dollar moved up to just shy of CAD 1.22, up from CAD 1.2151 last night.
The US dollar was higher against most other majors after the Fed Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged (!! 0 to 0.25%), but did pledge to to take all steps necessary to ease monetary conditions. There was some more good feeling on news that the US Treasury may even remove 'toxic assets' from some bank balance sheets, which went down well. the Dow Jones liked the news, anyway.
The €uro fell against the USD to $1.3087, down from $1.3144.
The USD fell back a little against the Japanese Yen to JPY 90.15, down about 15 pips from JPY 90.30.
The €uro was also down against the Yen at JPY 117.91, down from JPY 118.74.
Wednesday, 28 January 2009
Forex Market Update - Wed 28Jan09
Euro gains against the US Dollar & JPY
The €uro gained against the US dollar and the JPY this morning as the recent risk aversion moved to the back of priorities. News later of the conclusion of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve interest rate team is also eagerly awaited.
The European stock markets were up about 1 to 1.5%, with the banks seeing some buyers. The European currencies, namely the €uro & STG were boosted, turning up after the recent ignoring and risk aversion trading they have been subjected to. This all followed a positive day on Wall street last night, as encouraging earnings news from the likes of American Express and Texas Instruments helped to offset the weaker than expected US consumer confidence data.
The US Fed Reserve concludes a 2-day policy meeting later today, and, what with the benchmark interest rate already at zero to 0.25%, the market will be looking for any announcement of new policy measures, possibly like purchasing long-dated Treasuries, for example.
Analysts think the markets will also be looking out for any updated forecasts from the Fed on the economic outlook. This meeting will show a decent reaction to the Forex pairs, we are sure of that.
This morning by about 9.30am, €uro was up about 1% against the US dollar to $1.3294, and even higher against the JPY at 118.51 yen. The US dollar also gained 0.3% against the JPY at 89.11 yen.
The £STG was still looking bullish, depsite what looked like a pull-back early doors, and was recoevring nicely from its 23=year low that it hit last week. It was up to $1.4299, up 1% on the week.
Against the €uro the £STG was fairly flat.
With invetsors looking to be a little more settled on the glovbal economy overall, with hopes of some recovery, some of the risk aversion investing in to the USD & JPY is showing to be weakening.
Later today we will see investors focusing on what the Fed will be announcing, with the rather blunt fact that there is no more cuts in interest rates available.
News from Japan was that it had pledged some US$16.7 bln to small and medium sized companies. They are also feeling the credit crunch.
Nes from Canada's government was that it had proposed a 2-year $32 bln stimulus package, so to boost their economy.
Here in the UK we had the news of the car industry getting an injection as well. The UK car industry employs some 1m people, so the government won't be anting that to fail.
In the US, new US president Barack Obama went in to opposition lawmakers to drum up support for his US$815 bln stimulus proposal. There is still some concern, and sentiment on financial markets remains uncertain. Things still look bleak.
News out of Australia overnight showed consumer prices fell by their biggest amount for 10 years during Q4, prompting calls for further interest rate cuts. The Aussie dollar initially fell after the news, but then recovered as their stock market picked up and the higher yields from the AUD became influential in trading, with the Aussie dollar up nearly 1% against the USD at $0.6676.
The €uro gained against the US dollar and the JPY this morning as the recent risk aversion moved to the back of priorities. News later of the conclusion of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve interest rate team is also eagerly awaited.
The European stock markets were up about 1 to 1.5%, with the banks seeing some buyers. The European currencies, namely the €uro & STG were boosted, turning up after the recent ignoring and risk aversion trading they have been subjected to. This all followed a positive day on Wall street last night, as encouraging earnings news from the likes of American Express and Texas Instruments helped to offset the weaker than expected US consumer confidence data.
The US Fed Reserve concludes a 2-day policy meeting later today, and, what with the benchmark interest rate already at zero to 0.25%, the market will be looking for any announcement of new policy measures, possibly like purchasing long-dated Treasuries, for example.
Analysts think the markets will also be looking out for any updated forecasts from the Fed on the economic outlook. This meeting will show a decent reaction to the Forex pairs, we are sure of that.
This morning by about 9.30am, €uro was up about 1% against the US dollar to $1.3294, and even higher against the JPY at 118.51 yen. The US dollar also gained 0.3% against the JPY at 89.11 yen.
The £STG was still looking bullish, depsite what looked like a pull-back early doors, and was recoevring nicely from its 23=year low that it hit last week. It was up to $1.4299, up 1% on the week.
Against the €uro the £STG was fairly flat.
With invetsors looking to be a little more settled on the glovbal economy overall, with hopes of some recovery, some of the risk aversion investing in to the USD & JPY is showing to be weakening.
Later today we will see investors focusing on what the Fed will be announcing, with the rather blunt fact that there is no more cuts in interest rates available.
News from Japan was that it had pledged some US$16.7 bln to small and medium sized companies. They are also feeling the credit crunch.
Nes from Canada's government was that it had proposed a 2-year $32 bln stimulus package, so to boost their economy.
Here in the UK we had the news of the car industry getting an injection as well. The UK car industry employs some 1m people, so the government won't be anting that to fail.
In the US, new US president Barack Obama went in to opposition lawmakers to drum up support for his US$815 bln stimulus proposal. There is still some concern, and sentiment on financial markets remains uncertain. Things still look bleak.
News out of Australia overnight showed consumer prices fell by their biggest amount for 10 years during Q4, prompting calls for further interest rate cuts. The Aussie dollar initially fell after the news, but then recovered as their stock market picked up and the higher yields from the AUD became influential in trading, with the Aussie dollar up nearly 1% against the USD at $0.6676.
Tuesday, 27 January 2009
Forex Market Update - Tues 27Jan09
£STG gains some strength.
The Pound was helped today by the UK government's car (auto) sector bail-out package, whilst the UK banking stocks picked up after Barclays painted a more rosy picture (at least for themselves) and the UK retail sales survery was better than expected.
The Pound actually gained across the board, reaching a one-week high of $1.4241 against the US dollar, up over 7 cents since its 23-year low of about $1.35 hit last week.
It wasn't a runaway day, though, as some caution remained as concern over the bleak UK economic outlook, coupled with the prospect of more Bank of England rate cuts.
There was news today that the UK government will guarantee up to £2.3 bln in loans to the UK car industry, which did help push the pound higher. Further good news came from the Confederation of British Industry, whose survey showed UK retail sales fell much less than expected in January.
The pound was up about 1.4% against the US dollar at $1.4158 as we approached 4pm London time, whilst the €uro was down 1.5% against STG to 92.85p.
£STG also rose nearly 1% against the JPY to 125.60 JPY, having earlier hit a one-week high of 127.65 JPY.
News from the UK confirmed that the global downturn has further to run, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure falling further than expected to a record low 37.7 in January.
Thyere is the prospect of even further cuts in UK interest rates by the BoE, though, which would cause pressure on £STG. The BoE is trying to lift the struggling economy, and could be looking at the interest rate levels of the US as a guide to assist any kick-start. UK rates currently stand at 1.5%, falling towards the massive zero level, which will raise the prospect of the BoE deploying some unorthodox measures to boost UK money supply.
The Pound was helped today by the UK government's car (auto) sector bail-out package, whilst the UK banking stocks picked up after Barclays painted a more rosy picture (at least for themselves) and the UK retail sales survery was better than expected.
The Pound actually gained across the board, reaching a one-week high of $1.4241 against the US dollar, up over 7 cents since its 23-year low of about $1.35 hit last week.
It wasn't a runaway day, though, as some caution remained as concern over the bleak UK economic outlook, coupled with the prospect of more Bank of England rate cuts.
There was news today that the UK government will guarantee up to £2.3 bln in loans to the UK car industry, which did help push the pound higher. Further good news came from the Confederation of British Industry, whose survey showed UK retail sales fell much less than expected in January.
The pound was up about 1.4% against the US dollar at $1.4158 as we approached 4pm London time, whilst the €uro was down 1.5% against STG to 92.85p.
£STG also rose nearly 1% against the JPY to 125.60 JPY, having earlier hit a one-week high of 127.65 JPY.
News from the UK confirmed that the global downturn has further to run, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure falling further than expected to a record low 37.7 in January.
Thyere is the prospect of even further cuts in UK interest rates by the BoE, though, which would cause pressure on £STG. The BoE is trying to lift the struggling economy, and could be looking at the interest rate levels of the US as a guide to assist any kick-start. UK rates currently stand at 1.5%, falling towards the massive zero level, which will raise the prospect of the BoE deploying some unorthodox measures to boost UK money supply.
Monday, 26 January 2009
Market Update - Mon 26Jan09
During the London session we saw some risk taking returning to the front. News that Barclays Bank was doing well saw Cable becomne a little more popular and the safe haven of the US Dollar become secondary for now.
EUR/USD was up over +100 pips, sitting near the 1.30 as New York was approaching.
GBP/USD rallied some +230 pips to the 1.3870 level.
The Yen pairs were up as well, with USD/JPY up about +55 pips to 89.20/30, this depsite the dollar weakening. EUR/JPY was up some +170 pips to the 116.00/10 level.
News from New York was Trading had a major US machinery manufacturer reporting worse than expected Q4 earnings, which caused the markets to take a check, and pul back, with realism settling in again. The global recession is only really kicking off, and is far from over. There will be the US home sales announced shortly, with poor data expected. We could see some volatitlity during the session, with the EUR and the JPY crosses seeing some action.
Happy Trading.
EUR/USD was up over +100 pips, sitting near the 1.30 as New York was approaching.
GBP/USD rallied some +230 pips to the 1.3870 level.
The Yen pairs were up as well, with USD/JPY up about +55 pips to 89.20/30, this depsite the dollar weakening. EUR/JPY was up some +170 pips to the 116.00/10 level.
News from New York was Trading had a major US machinery manufacturer reporting worse than expected Q4 earnings, which caused the markets to take a check, and pul back, with realism settling in again. The global recession is only really kicking off, and is far from over. There will be the US home sales announced shortly, with poor data expected. We could see some volatitlity during the session, with the EUR and the JPY crosses seeing some action.
Happy Trading.
Friday, 23 January 2009
Live Room Trading Update - Fri 22Jan09
This is the part others cannot copy. They may like our market summaries, like our format, but they can’t claim to call trades. We don’t sit on the fence. We are REAL pro traders with years of experience. Don’t listen to others who have little or no experience, or only heard of Forex last March. Yes, they are out there, writing blogs, and using our format. BUT - they wait for the room to tell them when they trade, they don’t call the trades. Sorry to sound like a corny sales pitch, but it can get frustrating.
Live Room Roundup
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins (2 others also taken by members - both winners)
- 2 Intra-day calls; 2 wins
GBP/USD – Short Call - (+21)
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3687
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3666, +21 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3712
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/JPY – Short Call - (+25)
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 113.70
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 113.45, +25 (full position)
- Stop: 114.20
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+37 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.3741
Stop level: 1.3860
Target level: 1.3560
Closed: 1.3704 (+37 pips)
AUD/USD - Short trade closed (+35 pips)
Open Long: AUD/USD @ 0.6488
Stop level: 0.6580
Target level: 0.6320
Closed: 0.6453 (+35 pips)
Live Room Roundup
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins (2 others also taken by members - both winners)
- 2 Intra-day calls; 2 wins
GBP/USD – Short Call - (+21)
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3687
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3666, +21 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3712
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/JPY – Short Call - (+25)
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 113.70
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 113.45, +25 (full position)
- Stop: 114.20
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+37 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.3741
Stop level: 1.3860
Target level: 1.3560
Closed: 1.3704 (+37 pips)
AUD/USD - Short trade closed (+35 pips)
Open Long: AUD/USD @ 0.6488
Stop level: 0.6580
Target level: 0.6320
Closed: 0.6453 (+35 pips)
Forex Market Update - Fri 22Jan09
Market Update
During the London session it seemed like risk aversion was popular again, with £STG getting a bit of a pasting after news that the UK was definitely in recession, with a minus -1.5% shrinking of the economy last month. GDP for Q4 was actually at -1.8%, which was worse than expected, down from a +0.3% annual run rate. One almost abnormality was a better than expected retail sales figure for December, which was up , far better than the -0.7% decline that was expected, even though it was the Xmas season. The figures may not sound so bad here, but the reality is that the UK's economic problems are only just bedding in and are far from over.
GBP/USD fell more than -150 pips and was sitting near 1.3560/70 by the time New York was kicking off.
Euro zone news was weak, with the January PMI composite a rather disappointing 38.5, which was slightly better than expected. But, despite this the index remains at the lowest levels since the survey began back in 1998.
EUR/USD lost about -60 pips during the London session to move around the 1.2800/10 area. The pair has actually consolidated between 1.2850/1.2750 over the last few hours, but there is a break one way or the other expected.
This afternoon the New York session has no major news or events, so there will be some focus back towards what Wall Street gets up to, with the ongoing Q4 earnings being reported tending to all be disappointing.
We expect EUR, GBP, and the JPY crosses will fall back as the markets fall, but if there is a surprise rally into the weekend, we would could see a weaker green back as the risk averse turn away from the safe haven of the US dollar at the moment.
During the London session it seemed like risk aversion was popular again, with £STG getting a bit of a pasting after news that the UK was definitely in recession, with a minus -1.5% shrinking of the economy last month. GDP for Q4 was actually at -1.8%, which was worse than expected, down from a +0.3% annual run rate. One almost abnormality was a better than expected retail sales figure for December, which was up , far better than the -0.7% decline that was expected, even though it was the Xmas season. The figures may not sound so bad here, but the reality is that the UK's economic problems are only just bedding in and are far from over.
GBP/USD fell more than -150 pips and was sitting near 1.3560/70 by the time New York was kicking off.
Euro zone news was weak, with the January PMI composite a rather disappointing 38.5, which was slightly better than expected. But, despite this the index remains at the lowest levels since the survey began back in 1998.
EUR/USD lost about -60 pips during the London session to move around the 1.2800/10 area. The pair has actually consolidated between 1.2850/1.2750 over the last few hours, but there is a break one way or the other expected.
This afternoon the New York session has no major news or events, so there will be some focus back towards what Wall Street gets up to, with the ongoing Q4 earnings being reported tending to all be disappointing.
We expect EUR, GBP, and the JPY crosses will fall back as the markets fall, but if there is a surprise rally into the weekend, we would could see a weaker green back as the risk averse turn away from the safe haven of the US dollar at the moment.
Thursday, 22 January 2009
Forex Market - Thurs 22Jan09
STG Pound Recovers From 23-Year Low Against US Dollar
The £STG fell to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 23 years yesterday, but regained its footing very late in the day and turned it round fairly modestly.
The pound has actually come under intense selling pressure since the start of the week, down some down 9.3% from Monday's intra-day high. This is blamed on the UK government's latest bailout bucket was dismissed as too little, too late. The UK economy won't recover just because some more cash is printed and the troubled banks get some more balance sheet propping. Barclays Bank share price was down under 60p, and that is one of the better banks. RBS at 12p. The pressure on Cable increased after that big expiry of Japanese Yen options, whcih caused knock-on effects on several currencies.
The pound actually fell to $1.3630, its lowest mark since September 1985. That's nearly 23 years.
However, today it did a bit better as US stocks had a small rally, and a report from Reuters said that an anonymous G7 source had said that the STG pound will be discussed at the upcoming Group of Seven meeting on 14 Feb. This source added that the overall situation in currency markets does not require verbal intervention at this point.
The STG pound could extend its recovery from the lows touched yesterday as markets discount the negative developments in Britain, some analysts said. A floor seems to have been rerached, said some, as most bad news is now built in to the price. £1 = £1.30 seems to be a low, just as $2 was rather toppy.
The €uro also recovered from a 6-week low. Yesterday afternoon during the New York session the Euro was at $1.3020, up from $1.2900 the evening before.
The US dollar was at JPY 89.43, down from JPY 89.71.
The Euro was at JPY 116.45, up from JPY 115.72.
The £STG was at $1.3969, up from $1.3932.
The US dollar was at CHF 1.1546, up from CHF1.1470 late on Tuesday.
The Japanese Yen gained to a 7-year high against the Euro and over a 13-year high against the US dollar on Wednesday after the expiration of a large options contract priced at JPY 90. This massive deal reverberated through the Forex market, adding to the early downward pressure on the £STG and Euro against the US dollar as well.
Yesterday the dollar fell to JPY 87.10, which was its lowest level since July 1995, whilst the Euro fell to JPY 112.08, its lowest level since March 2002. There is typically a lot of hedging around such over-the-counter (OTC) options, and with currency markets currently tarding on thinner volume than in normal economic conditions, these large option trades actually represent a massive portion of trading in a particular currency pair.
The Euro fell back yesterday to a fresh 6-week low of $1.2825. This is really on the back of poor economic data from Eurozone, and after ratings downgrades by Standard & Poor's downgrade for Spain, Greece and Portugal. Germany also announced its economy will see its worst performance in six decades this year due to a slump in exports and capital investment.
The dollar is now considered a safe-haven because it is the world's reserve currency, whilst the JPY benefits due to Japan's large foreign-exchange reserves and current account surplus.
The £STG fell to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 23 years yesterday, but regained its footing very late in the day and turned it round fairly modestly.
The pound has actually come under intense selling pressure since the start of the week, down some down 9.3% from Monday's intra-day high. This is blamed on the UK government's latest bailout bucket was dismissed as too little, too late. The UK economy won't recover just because some more cash is printed and the troubled banks get some more balance sheet propping. Barclays Bank share price was down under 60p, and that is one of the better banks. RBS at 12p. The pressure on Cable increased after that big expiry of Japanese Yen options, whcih caused knock-on effects on several currencies.
The pound actually fell to $1.3630, its lowest mark since September 1985. That's nearly 23 years.
However, today it did a bit better as US stocks had a small rally, and a report from Reuters said that an anonymous G7 source had said that the STG pound will be discussed at the upcoming Group of Seven meeting on 14 Feb. This source added that the overall situation in currency markets does not require verbal intervention at this point.
The STG pound could extend its recovery from the lows touched yesterday as markets discount the negative developments in Britain, some analysts said. A floor seems to have been rerached, said some, as most bad news is now built in to the price. £1 = £1.30 seems to be a low, just as $2 was rather toppy.
The €uro also recovered from a 6-week low. Yesterday afternoon during the New York session the Euro was at $1.3020, up from $1.2900 the evening before.
The US dollar was at JPY 89.43, down from JPY 89.71.
The Euro was at JPY 116.45, up from JPY 115.72.
The £STG was at $1.3969, up from $1.3932.
The US dollar was at CHF 1.1546, up from CHF1.1470 late on Tuesday.
The Japanese Yen gained to a 7-year high against the Euro and over a 13-year high against the US dollar on Wednesday after the expiration of a large options contract priced at JPY 90. This massive deal reverberated through the Forex market, adding to the early downward pressure on the £STG and Euro against the US dollar as well.
Yesterday the dollar fell to JPY 87.10, which was its lowest level since July 1995, whilst the Euro fell to JPY 112.08, its lowest level since March 2002. There is typically a lot of hedging around such over-the-counter (OTC) options, and with currency markets currently tarding on thinner volume than in normal economic conditions, these large option trades actually represent a massive portion of trading in a particular currency pair.
The Euro fell back yesterday to a fresh 6-week low of $1.2825. This is really on the back of poor economic data from Eurozone, and after ratings downgrades by Standard & Poor's downgrade for Spain, Greece and Portugal. Germany also announced its economy will see its worst performance in six decades this year due to a slump in exports and capital investment.
The dollar is now considered a safe-haven because it is the world's reserve currency, whilst the JPY benefits due to Japan's large foreign-exchange reserves and current account surplus.
Wednesday, 21 January 2009
Forex Market Update - Wed 21Jan09
Euro Loses Earlier Gains Vs Dollar
The euro weakened against the US dollar today, and actually hit a 7-year low against the JPY.
On Wall Street the DJI was up early doors, but pulled back after the initial rise. Investors and traders are moving back in to the dollar as it is now seen as safer, and the 'Obama factor' is also helping. The JPY is also seen as safe at the present time.
With the dollar seen as the world's reserve currency, it is being bought as considered a safe-haven. The JPY is also seen as safe due to the massive foreign-exchange reserves it has, together with its current account surplus. When stock markets fall these currencies usually gain.
The euro actually fell as low as $1.2880, still off the fresh 6-week low of $1.2845 that it hit overnight, and to its lowest level against the JPY since March 2002, JPY 112.92. It is currently seen as that any more dollar dips are actually an opportunity to top up on the US green back.
The euro has been declining on low global stock markets, worsened by the banking sector troubles across Europe, coupled with broad economic concerns. Germany announced its economy will see its worst performance in six decades this year due to a slump in exports and capital investment. Germany has always been seen as strong.
This morning the euro was at $1.2880, down from $1.2900 last night, whilst the US dollar was at JPY 88.04, down from JPY 89.71.
The euro was at JPY 113.39, down from Y115.72.
The £STG was at $1.3765, down from $1.3932.
And the dollar was at CHF 1.1484, up slightly from CHF 1.1470 last night.
The US dollar fell back against the JPY earlier to a 5-week low of JPY 87.90. The Japanese Yen is considered relatively safer. But these losses came before any significant move in the stock market. There had been large option expiry at 10am New York time for a JPY90.00 strike that looks like it was taken. There is usually alot of hedging going on when there are such large OTC options in play. These hedges were then unwound afterwards.
The euro weakened against the US dollar today, and actually hit a 7-year low against the JPY.
On Wall Street the DJI was up early doors, but pulled back after the initial rise. Investors and traders are moving back in to the dollar as it is now seen as safer, and the 'Obama factor' is also helping. The JPY is also seen as safe at the present time.
With the dollar seen as the world's reserve currency, it is being bought as considered a safe-haven. The JPY is also seen as safe due to the massive foreign-exchange reserves it has, together with its current account surplus. When stock markets fall these currencies usually gain.
The euro actually fell as low as $1.2880, still off the fresh 6-week low of $1.2845 that it hit overnight, and to its lowest level against the JPY since March 2002, JPY 112.92. It is currently seen as that any more dollar dips are actually an opportunity to top up on the US green back.
The euro has been declining on low global stock markets, worsened by the banking sector troubles across Europe, coupled with broad economic concerns. Germany announced its economy will see its worst performance in six decades this year due to a slump in exports and capital investment. Germany has always been seen as strong.
This morning the euro was at $1.2880, down from $1.2900 last night, whilst the US dollar was at JPY 88.04, down from JPY 89.71.
The euro was at JPY 113.39, down from Y115.72.
The £STG was at $1.3765, down from $1.3932.
And the dollar was at CHF 1.1484, up slightly from CHF 1.1470 last night.
The US dollar fell back against the JPY earlier to a 5-week low of JPY 87.90. The Japanese Yen is considered relatively safer. But these losses came before any significant move in the stock market. There had been large option expiry at 10am New York time for a JPY90.00 strike that looks like it was taken. There is usually alot of hedging going on when there are such large OTC options in play. These hedges were then unwound afterwards.
Live Room Trade Update - Wed 21Jan09
London Session
- 1 Live Room trade call today; 1 win
- 5 Intra-day calls; 4 wins, 1 breakeven
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3810
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3785, +25 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3835
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+80 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 116.20
Stop level: 117.20
Target level: 113.70
Closed: 115.40 (+80 pips)
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (+39 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2649
Stop level: 1.2730
Target level: 1.2320
Closed: 1.2610 (+39 pips)
Closed after several attempts to break 50MA failed.
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+159 pips), target reached.
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 115.29
Stop level: 116.30
Target level: 113.70
Closed: 113.70 (+159 pips)
Target reached
GBP/USD - Long trade closed (+88 pips)
Open Long: GBP/USD @ 1.3735
Stop level: 1.3665
Target level: 1.4290
Closed: 1.3823 (+88 pips)
The pair made a swing high of 1.3863, position closed after retracement and break below 50MA.
AUD/USD - Short trade closed (+0 pips)
Open Long: AUD/USD @ 0.6519
Stop level: 0.6440
Target level: 0.6760
Closed: 0.6519 (+0 pips)
- 1 Live Room trade call today; 1 win
- 5 Intra-day calls; 4 wins, 1 breakeven
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3810
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3785, +25 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3835
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+80 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 116.20
Stop level: 117.20
Target level: 113.70
Closed: 115.40 (+80 pips)
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (+39 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2649
Stop level: 1.2730
Target level: 1.2320
Closed: 1.2610 (+39 pips)
Closed after several attempts to break 50MA failed.
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+159 pips), target reached.
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 115.29
Stop level: 116.30
Target level: 113.70
Closed: 113.70 (+159 pips)
Target reached
GBP/USD - Long trade closed (+88 pips)
Open Long: GBP/USD @ 1.3735
Stop level: 1.3665
Target level: 1.4290
Closed: 1.3823 (+88 pips)
The pair made a swing high of 1.3863, position closed after retracement and break below 50MA.
AUD/USD - Short trade closed (+0 pips)
Open Long: AUD/USD @ 0.6519
Stop level: 0.6440
Target level: 0.6760
Closed: 0.6519 (+0 pips)
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Forex - Market Update - Tues 20Jan09
Dollar Rises As Inauguration Gets Under Way
The FTSE 100 closed down 17.07 points at 4,091.40, and the FTSE 250 closed down 73.43 at 6,142.06.
As expected, the US dollar continued its overnight rally into the New York session today, hitting a new 6-week high against the €uro as Wall Street ctocks actually fell. The fall back of the DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average is actually encouraging traders to reverse their riskier trades, which typically causes a boost of the US dollar against the €uro.
The Euro-zone currency was already under some pressure after Standard & Poor's recent downgrades to the credit ratings, and now another euro-zone member, Spain got it too. Negative headlines out of the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers were that the region's growth outlook was severely cut.
The €uro briefly dipped below the $1.2900 level to a 6-week low of $1.2893.
This morning the €uro was at $1.2908, down from $1.3125 last night, whilst the US dollar was at JPY 90.09, down from JPY 90.61.
The €uro was trading at JPY 116.35, down from JPY 119.01. The £STG was at $1.3943, down significantly from $1.4502, whilst the US dollar was at CHF 1.1447, up from CHF1.1311 last night.
The decline in stock prices also boosted the Japenese Yen versus currencies that the market sees at relatively riskier. The US dollar fell to an intraday low of JPY 90.05, whilst the €uro fell to a session low of JPY 116.14.
The FTSE 100 closed down 17.07 points at 4,091.40, and the FTSE 250 closed down 73.43 at 6,142.06.
As expected, the US dollar continued its overnight rally into the New York session today, hitting a new 6-week high against the €uro as Wall Street ctocks actually fell. The fall back of the DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average is actually encouraging traders to reverse their riskier trades, which typically causes a boost of the US dollar against the €uro.
The Euro-zone currency was already under some pressure after Standard & Poor's recent downgrades to the credit ratings, and now another euro-zone member, Spain got it too. Negative headlines out of the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers were that the region's growth outlook was severely cut.
The €uro briefly dipped below the $1.2900 level to a 6-week low of $1.2893.
This morning the €uro was at $1.2908, down from $1.3125 last night, whilst the US dollar was at JPY 90.09, down from JPY 90.61.
The €uro was trading at JPY 116.35, down from JPY 119.01. The £STG was at $1.3943, down significantly from $1.4502, whilst the US dollar was at CHF 1.1447, up from CHF1.1311 last night.
The decline in stock prices also boosted the Japenese Yen versus currencies that the market sees at relatively riskier. The US dollar fell to an intraday low of JPY 90.05, whilst the €uro fell to a session low of JPY 116.14.
Monday, 19 January 2009
Forex - Market Update - Mon 19Jan09
Dollar in Stronger - European Currencies Stutter
The FTSE 100 closed down 38.59 points at 4,108.47, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 34.11 points at 6,215.49, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 16.4 points lower at 1,849.21.
The US dollar was stronger against most European currencies this morning, with the US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Volume was lighetr than usual as a result, of course.
The US dollar's strongest move was against the €uro and £STG, both of which have fallen due to economic concerns and today's bank news in the UK causing more downbeat attitude. All this despite the UK Treasury announcing a 2nd rescue package for that the UK's banks by providing banks with an insurance scheme so to offload bad debts, which is aimed at easing conditions in the credit markets. This initially helped the Pound, but the gains soon faded as the full details of the package became clear, with investors working out that the banks could and will more than likely still pose a risk to the wider real economy. This frigtened investors and traders alike. So, with Obama moving in over the pond, the dollar looked more attarctive.
This morning the pound had fallen to $1.4541 from $1.4722 late Friday, according to EBS. The euro was at $1.3192 from $1.3290 late Friday, and at Y119.3 from Y120.31, while the dollar was at JPY 90.41 from JPY 90.59.
The dollar was at CHF 1.1248, up from CHF 1.1184 late on Friday.
The euro was weaker today as news that ratings agency, Standard & Poor's, cut Spain's sovereign debt rating to AA+ from AAA. This was part of the new European Union downgrades to the Euro-zone economic forecasts.
News is that the E.U. now sees Euro-zone economic growth falling 1.9% in 2009, which is a larger fall than the European Central Bank's official forecast. Whilst these developments have boosted the dollar at the expense of the €uro and the Pound, many currency watchers maintain that the dollar's relative performance will depend on how successful monetary authorities in the US, the UK and elsewhere are at trying to shore up the shaky global financial system.
But, to contradict somewaht, with Obama moving in the the White House, we could expect to see the dollar gaining some strength on tha back of the new President. Obama's inauguration is tomorrow, with the fact that he will command a strong position in Congress.
The Canadian dollar was down a little in narrow trading, which was due to the holiday in the US. The CAD was at C$1.2501 from C$1.2484 on Friday.
The FTSE 100 closed down 38.59 points at 4,108.47, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down 34.11 points at 6,215.49, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 16.4 points lower at 1,849.21.
The US dollar was stronger against most European currencies this morning, with the US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Volume was lighetr than usual as a result, of course.
The US dollar's strongest move was against the €uro and £STG, both of which have fallen due to economic concerns and today's bank news in the UK causing more downbeat attitude. All this despite the UK Treasury announcing a 2nd rescue package for that the UK's banks by providing banks with an insurance scheme so to offload bad debts, which is aimed at easing conditions in the credit markets. This initially helped the Pound, but the gains soon faded as the full details of the package became clear, with investors working out that the banks could and will more than likely still pose a risk to the wider real economy. This frigtened investors and traders alike. So, with Obama moving in over the pond, the dollar looked more attarctive.
This morning the pound had fallen to $1.4541 from $1.4722 late Friday, according to EBS. The euro was at $1.3192 from $1.3290 late Friday, and at Y119.3 from Y120.31, while the dollar was at JPY 90.41 from JPY 90.59.
The dollar was at CHF 1.1248, up from CHF 1.1184 late on Friday.
The euro was weaker today as news that ratings agency, Standard & Poor's, cut Spain's sovereign debt rating to AA+ from AAA. This was part of the new European Union downgrades to the Euro-zone economic forecasts.
News is that the E.U. now sees Euro-zone economic growth falling 1.9% in 2009, which is a larger fall than the European Central Bank's official forecast. Whilst these developments have boosted the dollar at the expense of the €uro and the Pound, many currency watchers maintain that the dollar's relative performance will depend on how successful monetary authorities in the US, the UK and elsewhere are at trying to shore up the shaky global financial system.
But, to contradict somewaht, with Obama moving in the the White House, we could expect to see the dollar gaining some strength on tha back of the new President. Obama's inauguration is tomorrow, with the fact that he will command a strong position in Congress.
The Canadian dollar was down a little in narrow trading, which was due to the holiday in the US. The CAD was at C$1.2501 from C$1.2484 on Friday.
Forex Live Room Trades Update - Mon 19Jan09
London Session
- No Live Room trade calls today.
- 4 Intra-day calls; 3 wins and 1 trade still open.
Intra-day trades
USD/JPY- Short trade closed (+18 pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 90.69
Stop level: 91.40
Target level: 89.60
Closed: 90.51 (+18 pips)
EUR/USD - Long trade closed (+23 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/USD @ 1.3308
Stop level: 1.3400
Target level: 1.3110
Closed: 1.3285 (+23 pips)
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+172 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4650
Stop level: 1.4770
Target level: 1.4480
Closed: 1.4480 (+172 pips)
Target reached.
AUD/USD - Short trade still open
Opened Short: AUD/USD @ 0.6722
Stop level: 0.6810
Target level: 0.6550
Still Open...
Come and join the REAL Traders - www.marketbytes.com
- No Live Room trade calls today.
- 4 Intra-day calls; 3 wins and 1 trade still open.
Intra-day trades
USD/JPY- Short trade closed (+18 pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 90.69
Stop level: 91.40
Target level: 89.60
Closed: 90.51 (+18 pips)
EUR/USD - Long trade closed (+23 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/USD @ 1.3308
Stop level: 1.3400
Target level: 1.3110
Closed: 1.3285 (+23 pips)
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+172 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4650
Stop level: 1.4770
Target level: 1.4480
Closed: 1.4480 (+172 pips)
Target reached.
AUD/USD - Short trade still open
Opened Short: AUD/USD @ 0.6722
Stop level: 0.6810
Target level: 0.6550
Still Open...
Come and join the REAL Traders - www.marketbytes.com
Friday, 16 January 2009
Forex Market Round Up - Fri 16Jan09
The US Dollar Gains To One Week High Vs Japense Yen. Stock Markets Positive.
The dollar rose to a one-week high against the JPY today, with positive US stock market performance helping investors's risk appetite. The US dollar recently rose as high as USD/JPY 90.88, which extended gains on more yet more US government aid for Wall Street.
Late Thursday, the US Senate voted to release the 2nd tranche of US$350 bln from the 'Troubled Asset Relief Program' funds to the US Treasury. House Democrats announced yesterday details of an US$825 bln economic stimulus package.
Early today, the US government said it will invest some US$20 bln in to Bank of America Corporation and said it will protect an asset pool worth US$118 bln. Also, it was said that Citigroup Inc. will be guaranteed on some US$301 bln of assets, which was actually an agreement previously announced this last November.
This all implies that the rumours today in London that more help will come from the UK government to British banking institutions will be forthcoming are correct. Barclays Bank was down some 25% today, with the bank declaring it had 'no idea' why.
Also helping the US dollar was the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer survey, which was released this morning. It showed that consumer confidence had reached a modest 4-month high this motnh. The sentiment index rose to 61.9 for January, up from 60.1 in December. Economists had actually expected a lower reading of 58.8.
This morning in New York the €uro was trading at $1.3246, up from $1.3145 last night. The dollar was trading at JPY 90.78, up from JPY 89.71.
The €uro was at JPY 120.25, up from JPY 118.00, whilst £STG was trading at $1.4823, up from $1.4651.
The US dollar was trading at CHF 1.1194, down from CHF 1.1225 last night.
Have a good weekend.
The dollar rose to a one-week high against the JPY today, with positive US stock market performance helping investors's risk appetite. The US dollar recently rose as high as USD/JPY 90.88, which extended gains on more yet more US government aid for Wall Street.
Late Thursday, the US Senate voted to release the 2nd tranche of US$350 bln from the 'Troubled Asset Relief Program' funds to the US Treasury. House Democrats announced yesterday details of an US$825 bln economic stimulus package.
Early today, the US government said it will invest some US$20 bln in to Bank of America Corporation and said it will protect an asset pool worth US$118 bln. Also, it was said that Citigroup Inc. will be guaranteed on some US$301 bln of assets, which was actually an agreement previously announced this last November.
This all implies that the rumours today in London that more help will come from the UK government to British banking institutions will be forthcoming are correct. Barclays Bank was down some 25% today, with the bank declaring it had 'no idea' why.
Also helping the US dollar was the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer survey, which was released this morning. It showed that consumer confidence had reached a modest 4-month high this motnh. The sentiment index rose to 61.9 for January, up from 60.1 in December. Economists had actually expected a lower reading of 58.8.
This morning in New York the €uro was trading at $1.3246, up from $1.3145 last night. The dollar was trading at JPY 90.78, up from JPY 89.71.
The €uro was at JPY 120.25, up from JPY 118.00, whilst £STG was trading at $1.4823, up from $1.4651.
The US dollar was trading at CHF 1.1194, down from CHF 1.1225 last night.
Have a good weekend.
Thursday, 15 January 2009
Forex Update - Thurs 15Jan09
Forex Update - Thurs 15Jan09
Pound gains some ground as ECB cuts interest rates by 0.5%.
Sterling edged up against the €uro today as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 0.5%, which was as expected. Some had hoped for more, but this does leave room for further easing of rates in coming months, although the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet did imply that the next rate change would not be until March.
This means that ECB cut rates to 2%, which equals its lowest ever rate. The ECB cut key interest rates to 2.0 percent, matching its lowest ever rate, and its president said that inflation risks continue to diminish as the Eurozone economy weakened. This caused some selling of the €uro as expectations that the ECB will continue with this rate lowering cycle. However, the €uro did recoup some losses after President Trichet said that the next important meeting would be in March (not February) as the ECB would have some 'fresh' economic forecasts then. This meant that if interest rates stay at 2% for February, then some more weight could come back in to the €uro, pushing it higher again. It was around the 90p level against £STG this afternoon.
The €uro did still remain under some pressure by the deepening recession and deteriorating fiscal position of some of the Eurozone countries. The UK economy is certainly not faring any better, with Britain slipping into recession for the first time since 1992. Nut as this has been on the cards for a while now, much of the bad news is already built in to Sterling, which has lost about 25% of its value against the US dollar last year.
GBP/USD reversed some of the earlier gains on profit taking, and was down about 0.3% to $1.4525. There was one large sell-order, which started more selling by others, who did some profit taking.
£STG remains weaker by the ongoing banking sector troubles and lower stock market. The FTSE was down another 1% today, with a negative session making 7 losses in a row. Wall Street and the Far East faired no better.
Concerns that HSBC may have to raise even more capital to help shore up its poor balance sheet gave worries, and the news from Barclays about their planned 2,100 job cuts earlier this week hasn't helped.
Some buying came in for £STG after the news that the UK government said it would provide some £20 bln to assist smaller firms refinance their debt so to prevent cash-tight foirms going to the wall did help. The UK government also said it would cover 50% of any bank business loans to entrepreneurs, although there is feeling that the banks are still being very careful with their cash.
Pound gains some ground as ECB cuts interest rates by 0.5%.
Sterling edged up against the €uro today as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 0.5%, which was as expected. Some had hoped for more, but this does leave room for further easing of rates in coming months, although the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet did imply that the next rate change would not be until March.
This means that ECB cut rates to 2%, which equals its lowest ever rate. The ECB cut key interest rates to 2.0 percent, matching its lowest ever rate, and its president said that inflation risks continue to diminish as the Eurozone economy weakened. This caused some selling of the €uro as expectations that the ECB will continue with this rate lowering cycle. However, the €uro did recoup some losses after President Trichet said that the next important meeting would be in March (not February) as the ECB would have some 'fresh' economic forecasts then. This meant that if interest rates stay at 2% for February, then some more weight could come back in to the €uro, pushing it higher again. It was around the 90p level against £STG this afternoon.
The €uro did still remain under some pressure by the deepening recession and deteriorating fiscal position of some of the Eurozone countries. The UK economy is certainly not faring any better, with Britain slipping into recession for the first time since 1992. Nut as this has been on the cards for a while now, much of the bad news is already built in to Sterling, which has lost about 25% of its value against the US dollar last year.
GBP/USD reversed some of the earlier gains on profit taking, and was down about 0.3% to $1.4525. There was one large sell-order, which started more selling by others, who did some profit taking.
£STG remains weaker by the ongoing banking sector troubles and lower stock market. The FTSE was down another 1% today, with a negative session making 7 losses in a row. Wall Street and the Far East faired no better.
Concerns that HSBC may have to raise even more capital to help shore up its poor balance sheet gave worries, and the news from Barclays about their planned 2,100 job cuts earlier this week hasn't helped.
Some buying came in for £STG after the news that the UK government said it would provide some £20 bln to assist smaller firms refinance their debt so to prevent cash-tight foirms going to the wall did help. The UK government also said it would cover 50% of any bank business loans to entrepreneurs, although there is feeling that the banks are still being very careful with their cash.
Forex Update - Thurs 15Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
Everyone poiled into the Yen again as it was seen as the safest haven. Risk averse was the order of the day. The Nikkei had a poor day, following on from Europe and Wall Street, falling some 4% on the day.
The Yen kicked off the session at around USD/JPY 88.88, but when news of poor Japanese Machinery Orders came in it pushed up to 89.24 high, before falling back under where it started. As we came to a close a session low had been reached at 88.77.
In fact, all the majors saw the Yen get stronger, with invetsors and traders looking for somwhere safe. EUR/JPY had moved from a New York low of just under the 1.3100 level to reach a high during the Asian session of 1.3219. It then settled and traded fairly even as the session progressed and we approached the London session.
With those rumours that Ireland has or is planning to go to the IMF with cap in hand for some emergency funding saw the Euro lose its popularity rather quickly. With the ECB's interest rate decision later today at 12:45, the expectation is at least a 0.5% cut to 2%, but twice this could be possible. With the recent S&P ratings being lowered for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, a cut of 1% could be the order of the day.
It is a US holiday weekend, with the US Presidential Inauguration next Tuesday to look forward to, amongst more US data, of course.
Everyone poiled into the Yen again as it was seen as the safest haven. Risk averse was the order of the day. The Nikkei had a poor day, following on from Europe and Wall Street, falling some 4% on the day.
The Yen kicked off the session at around USD/JPY 88.88, but when news of poor Japanese Machinery Orders came in it pushed up to 89.24 high, before falling back under where it started. As we came to a close a session low had been reached at 88.77.
In fact, all the majors saw the Yen get stronger, with invetsors and traders looking for somwhere safe. EUR/JPY had moved from a New York low of just under the 1.3100 level to reach a high during the Asian session of 1.3219. It then settled and traded fairly even as the session progressed and we approached the London session.
With those rumours that Ireland has or is planning to go to the IMF with cap in hand for some emergency funding saw the Euro lose its popularity rather quickly. With the ECB's interest rate decision later today at 12:45, the expectation is at least a 0.5% cut to 2%, but twice this could be possible. With the recent S&P ratings being lowered for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, a cut of 1% could be the order of the day.
It is a US holiday weekend, with the US Presidential Inauguration next Tuesday to look forward to, amongst more US data, of course.
Wednesday, 14 January 2009
Forex Update - Wed 14Jul09 - New York Session
New York Session
It looked fairly 'safe' during the New York session, with risk averse being the play. With Wall Street falling 3% after some rather poor US retail sales figures, every man and his dog was was looking for a safe haven. Sales figures showed another -2.7% headline decline for December, which whilst considered expected - no-one wanted to be told. The control number, which doesn't include auto dealers and house/construction building materials, fell to a rather worrying -22.3% annual rate for the 4Q. What this means is that a US GDP figure in the -7% can't be ruled out. Yes, minus 7%. Despite this confirmation for us realists that this is a significant major setback and that it is looking like a full 24 months before we can honestly say that things are looking better fundamentally, the green back was rather mixed. Does this mean that other nations are juist as bad, or that one doesn't know where to put his cash. The cynic in us technical guys is the latter.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell 248.42 points to 8,200.14, the S&P500 down 29.17 to 842.62, and the Nasdaq fell 56.82 points to 1,489.64.
EUR/USD didn't do much during the US session. Basically it settled at the 1.3180 level early doors and didn't do much at all. Didn't do much to the poijnt that we are still in that area as Asia kicks off. The 1.3100 level does look fairly imprtant, and please note that if we see a break under the 1.3080 then a short trade towarsd the 1.3000 level will be a decent play.
The Yen pairs fell back a little, with USD/JPY down some -50 pips to the 89.00 level, which swe see as a fairly stern support (so watch this), whilst the EUR/JPY fell some -65 pips to the 117.30/40 zone by the time Asia was kicking off.
Looking down under, the 'commodity currencies' took a hit as [alleged] inventories were better than expected and the weekly petroleum inventory builds saw the price of the black stuff fall to around US$37.40 by the end of the session. No point in mentioning the highs and the hype of the not so long ago summer prices of US$147 bbl, we suppose, but still - 37 bucks a barrel isn't a celebration for those taking the trouble to get the stuff out the ground.
USD/CAD leapt some +250 pips to something like 1.25000, or just short, settleing at the 1.2480/90 level as we ended the session.
AUD/USD fell some -90 pips to around the 0.6600/10 level by the time we reached the end of the session.
The ECB interest rate decision is with us tomoroow. Expect a minimum of 0.5% reduction, with 1% not seen as 'out of ther way'.
But - Be Careful...
It looked fairly 'safe' during the New York session, with risk averse being the play. With Wall Street falling 3% after some rather poor US retail sales figures, every man and his dog was was looking for a safe haven. Sales figures showed another -2.7% headline decline for December, which whilst considered expected - no-one wanted to be told. The control number, which doesn't include auto dealers and house/construction building materials, fell to a rather worrying -22.3% annual rate for the 4Q. What this means is that a US GDP figure in the -7% can't be ruled out. Yes, minus 7%. Despite this confirmation for us realists that this is a significant major setback and that it is looking like a full 24 months before we can honestly say that things are looking better fundamentally, the green back was rather mixed. Does this mean that other nations are juist as bad, or that one doesn't know where to put his cash. The cynic in us technical guys is the latter.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell 248.42 points to 8,200.14, the S&P500 down 29.17 to 842.62, and the Nasdaq fell 56.82 points to 1,489.64.
EUR/USD didn't do much during the US session. Basically it settled at the 1.3180 level early doors and didn't do much at all. Didn't do much to the poijnt that we are still in that area as Asia kicks off. The 1.3100 level does look fairly imprtant, and please note that if we see a break under the 1.3080 then a short trade towarsd the 1.3000 level will be a decent play.
The Yen pairs fell back a little, with USD/JPY down some -50 pips to the 89.00 level, which swe see as a fairly stern support (so watch this), whilst the EUR/JPY fell some -65 pips to the 117.30/40 zone by the time Asia was kicking off.
Looking down under, the 'commodity currencies' took a hit as [alleged] inventories were better than expected and the weekly petroleum inventory builds saw the price of the black stuff fall to around US$37.40 by the end of the session. No point in mentioning the highs and the hype of the not so long ago summer prices of US$147 bbl, we suppose, but still - 37 bucks a barrel isn't a celebration for those taking the trouble to get the stuff out the ground.
USD/CAD leapt some +250 pips to something like 1.25000, or just short, settleing at the 1.2480/90 level as we ended the session.
AUD/USD fell some -90 pips to around the 0.6600/10 level by the time we reached the end of the session.
The ECB interest rate decision is with us tomoroow. Expect a minimum of 0.5% reduction, with 1% not seen as 'out of ther way'.
But - Be Careful...
Forex - Live Room Update - Wed 14Jan09
London Session
- 1 Live Room trade call today; the trade was closed with a small loss.
- 4 Intra-day calls; 2 wins 1 loss, 1 still open.
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3220
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3226, -6 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3245
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
EUR/USD - Long trade closed (+37 pips)
Open Long: EUR/USD @ 1.3256
Stop level: 1.3125
Target level: 1.3430
Closed: 1.3293 (+37 pips)
GBP/USD - Long trade closed (+96 pips)
Open Long: GBP/USD @ 1.4587
Stop level: 1.4460
Target level: 1.4840
Closed: 1.4693 (+96 pips)
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (-96 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2139
Stop level: 1.2235
Target level: 1.1950
Closed: 1.2235 (-96 pips)
USD/JPY - Short trade still open
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 89.20
Stop level: 90.25
Target level: 87.20
Still open...
- 1 Live Room trade call today; the trade was closed with a small loss.
- 4 Intra-day calls; 2 wins 1 loss, 1 still open.
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3220
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3226, -6 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3245
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
EUR/USD - Long trade closed (+37 pips)
Open Long: EUR/USD @ 1.3256
Stop level: 1.3125
Target level: 1.3430
Closed: 1.3293 (+37 pips)
GBP/USD - Long trade closed (+96 pips)
Open Long: GBP/USD @ 1.4587
Stop level: 1.4460
Target level: 1.4840
Closed: 1.4693 (+96 pips)
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (-96 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2139
Stop level: 1.2235
Target level: 1.1950
Closed: 1.2235 (-96 pips)
USD/JPY - Short trade still open
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 89.20
Stop level: 90.25
Target level: 87.20
Still open...
Forex Update - Wed 14Jan09 - London session
London Session
Poor news from Eurozone didn't help the Euro this morning. Economic data continued to be very downbeat, with rumours now around that Ireland may go cap in hand to the IMF for some emergency funding. News that Eurozone industrial production had slowed to a fairly dismal -7.7% annual rate for November didn't help the Euro, as this was the biggest drop since December 1990.
EUR/USD was down some -80 pips and was around the 1.3220/30 level as we approached the New york session. We are looking at yesterday's low of 1.3140 being a significant level for support. The news on Ireland's possible visit to the IMF for some cash didn't give reason to be buying Euros.
The Yen pairs were moving lower as investors and traders saw the yen as a safe haven, and being risk averse, all amongst this latest bout of poor financial news. The Europoean Bourses were all down about 2% as well.
USD/JPY fell around -35 pips towards the 89.40/50 level, whilst EUR/JPY fell more than -120 pips to the 118.30/40 area. If we see breaks below 89.00 and 118.00 then we should see more downside.
USD/CAD was up around +70 pips to just above the 1.2200 level. This was after testing a low of 1.2120/30 early doors, which looked like a certain short trade. The price of oil being back under the US$39 bbl level helping the fall here.
Poor news from Eurozone didn't help the Euro this morning. Economic data continued to be very downbeat, with rumours now around that Ireland may go cap in hand to the IMF for some emergency funding. News that Eurozone industrial production had slowed to a fairly dismal -7.7% annual rate for November didn't help the Euro, as this was the biggest drop since December 1990.
EUR/USD was down some -80 pips and was around the 1.3220/30 level as we approached the New york session. We are looking at yesterday's low of 1.3140 being a significant level for support. The news on Ireland's possible visit to the IMF for some cash didn't give reason to be buying Euros.
The Yen pairs were moving lower as investors and traders saw the yen as a safe haven, and being risk averse, all amongst this latest bout of poor financial news. The Europoean Bourses were all down about 2% as well.
USD/JPY fell around -35 pips towards the 89.40/50 level, whilst EUR/JPY fell more than -120 pips to the 118.30/40 area. If we see breaks below 89.00 and 118.00 then we should see more downside.
USD/CAD was up around +70 pips to just above the 1.2200 level. This was after testing a low of 1.2120/30 early doors, which looked like a certain short trade. The price of oil being back under the US$39 bbl level helping the fall here.
Forex Update - Wed 14Jan09 - Asia Session
Forex Update - Asia Session
The Euro gaines some weight again during the Asian session, although we feel this may be short-lived. All this was despite Irlend and Spain getting S&P downgrades, with Greece in there too, as well as Portugal. The recent addition to the Euro zone has hardly added much weight, but still the Euro is strong.
The EUR/USD began the session near the session lows of 1.3169, not far off from the one month lows of 1.3140 earlier in New York trading, and never looked back as we touched just above 1.3300 in late Asian trading. Many look to the lack of interest in the Dollar due to tomorrow's upcoming December Retail Sales data in NY (13:30 GMT) which everyone assumes will be bleak at best.
There could be some strong anti-Euro action tomorow if the ECB doesn't take a hevy axe to interest rates, where 0.5% is seen as the absolute minimum to expect. Against the Yen the Euro made some gains, up over +200 pips as the Yen came under some pressure. At long last.
EUR/JPY jumped from a 117.14 late New York low, to a 119.50 late Asian high as the Nikkei made gains in the tune of almost 1%.
Cable shrugged off that nasty trade deficit figure from yesterday and moved up from a GBP/USD figure of 1.4491 to around the 1.4620 level.
GBP/JPY looked fairly stern and solid during the session, moving up from around 128.90 to near the 131.20 level.
USD/JPY saw Yen weakness rather than diollar strngth, as Yenw as sold off. The pair moved from around 88.95 to the 89.80 level. It appears the Bank of japoan's threat to intervene may be helping the Yen shed some of its recent unwanted strength.
The Euro gaines some weight again during the Asian session, although we feel this may be short-lived. All this was despite Irlend and Spain getting S&P downgrades, with Greece in there too, as well as Portugal. The recent addition to the Euro zone has hardly added much weight, but still the Euro is strong.
The EUR/USD began the session near the session lows of 1.3169, not far off from the one month lows of 1.3140 earlier in New York trading, and never looked back as we touched just above 1.3300 in late Asian trading. Many look to the lack of interest in the Dollar due to tomorrow's upcoming December Retail Sales data in NY (13:30 GMT) which everyone assumes will be bleak at best.
There could be some strong anti-Euro action tomorow if the ECB doesn't take a hevy axe to interest rates, where 0.5% is seen as the absolute minimum to expect. Against the Yen the Euro made some gains, up over +200 pips as the Yen came under some pressure. At long last.
EUR/JPY jumped from a 117.14 late New York low, to a 119.50 late Asian high as the Nikkei made gains in the tune of almost 1%.
Cable shrugged off that nasty trade deficit figure from yesterday and moved up from a GBP/USD figure of 1.4491 to around the 1.4620 level.
GBP/JPY looked fairly stern and solid during the session, moving up from around 128.90 to near the 131.20 level.
USD/JPY saw Yen weakness rather than diollar strngth, as Yenw as sold off. The pair moved from around 88.95 to the 89.80 level. It appears the Bank of japoan's threat to intervene may be helping the Yen shed some of its recent unwanted strength.
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
Forex Update - Tues 13Jan09 - New York Session
New York Session
Fed Chairman Bernanke made a fairly mediocre speech when New York opened, but it didn't cause much of a reaction other than to benmefit the dollar somewhat. His speech was to the point, and was fairly factual on how difficlut the US economy will be to turn round. Nothing we didn't know already. He said that 'toxic assets' remain a barrier to capital raising, adding that fiscal stimulus alone will not spur a lasting rebound in the US economy. He said that inflation is expected to continue to moderate in the coming months ahead. Basically, this fair assessment gave the US dollar some positive thoughts, really.
Wall Street saw stocks fairly even, with tomorrow's US retail sales report providing reasons to move the market one way or another.
EUR/USD fell around -100 pips to the 1.3180 level by the time the New York session came to an end. Th break of 1.3200 now gives reason to go to 1.3000. Let us see what the ECB does with interest rates on Thursday. Expect 0.5%, minimum.
EUR/JPY fell about -70 pips to under the 118.00 level, settling at 117.80/90 as we drew to a close.
USD/CAD jumped early doors in the NY session, running up to the 1.23 level, which proved to be a bit of a barrier, then pulled back to around 1.2240 as we approached the end of the session. With the price of oil rising, it affected the pair somewhat.
Fed Chairman Bernanke made a fairly mediocre speech when New York opened, but it didn't cause much of a reaction other than to benmefit the dollar somewhat. His speech was to the point, and was fairly factual on how difficlut the US economy will be to turn round. Nothing we didn't know already. He said that 'toxic assets' remain a barrier to capital raising, adding that fiscal stimulus alone will not spur a lasting rebound in the US economy. He said that inflation is expected to continue to moderate in the coming months ahead. Basically, this fair assessment gave the US dollar some positive thoughts, really.
Wall Street saw stocks fairly even, with tomorrow's US retail sales report providing reasons to move the market one way or another.
EUR/USD fell around -100 pips to the 1.3180 level by the time the New York session came to an end. Th break of 1.3200 now gives reason to go to 1.3000. Let us see what the ECB does with interest rates on Thursday. Expect 0.5%, minimum.
EUR/JPY fell about -70 pips to under the 118.00 level, settling at 117.80/90 as we drew to a close.
USD/CAD jumped early doors in the NY session, running up to the 1.23 level, which proved to be a bit of a barrier, then pulled back to around 1.2240 as we approached the end of the session. With the price of oil rising, it affected the pair somewhat.
Forex - Day's Summary - Tues 13Jan09
Pound Sterling hit its lowest level for almost 14 years against the Japanese Yen today as concerns on global economic health saw risk averse moves coming in to play.
The £pound also fell against the dollar, which had responded fairly positively to Ben Bernanke's speech oin the US economy this morning New York time.
£STG was also lower against the €uro, with some worrying losses from Citigroup & Sony causing markets to fall.
News that S&P is lowering its rating of Spain didn't help feeling, with Greece and Ireland already downgraded and New Zealand also likely to be. Intra-euro zone government bond spreads widened to their largest spread since the €uro launch, and investors decided that German Bunds looked the safest haven.
Risk aversion saw £STG fall to a low of 129.74 JPY, which we last saw back in April 1995, some 14 years ago. Bascially, the severity of the UK's situation is not good. The Office for National Statistics said the goods trade deficit grew to £8.33 bln in November, down from October's £7.63 bln, which was the biggest since records began in 1697. A negative growth situation will not help £STG, and the GBP/USD was down to 1.4580 as we approached the end of the London session. This was a 1.6% fall on the day.
EUR/GBP was up 0.5% at 90.65p, but thew €uro didn't win everywhere as the ECB will be almostr certainly cutting interest rates by 0.5% on Thursday.
The British Retail Consortium said that UK retail sales fell in December at the fastest pace on record for the key Christmas shopping month. The BRC said like-for-like retail sales fell for a 7th consecutive month and by 3.3% on a year ago in December, compared with a 2.6% drop in November. The British Chambers of Commerce said businesses are facing their toughest conditions in more than two decades.
Staying long on USD & JPY seems the safest bet at the moment.
The £pound also fell against the dollar, which had responded fairly positively to Ben Bernanke's speech oin the US economy this morning New York time.
£STG was also lower against the €uro, with some worrying losses from Citigroup & Sony causing markets to fall.
News that S&P is lowering its rating of Spain didn't help feeling, with Greece and Ireland already downgraded and New Zealand also likely to be. Intra-euro zone government bond spreads widened to their largest spread since the €uro launch, and investors decided that German Bunds looked the safest haven.
Risk aversion saw £STG fall to a low of 129.74 JPY, which we last saw back in April 1995, some 14 years ago. Bascially, the severity of the UK's situation is not good. The Office for National Statistics said the goods trade deficit grew to £8.33 bln in November, down from October's £7.63 bln, which was the biggest since records began in 1697. A negative growth situation will not help £STG, and the GBP/USD was down to 1.4580 as we approached the end of the London session. This was a 1.6% fall on the day.
EUR/GBP was up 0.5% at 90.65p, but thew €uro didn't win everywhere as the ECB will be almostr certainly cutting interest rates by 0.5% on Thursday.
The British Retail Consortium said that UK retail sales fell in December at the fastest pace on record for the key Christmas shopping month. The BRC said like-for-like retail sales fell for a 7th consecutive month and by 3.3% on a year ago in December, compared with a 2.6% drop in November. The British Chambers of Commerce said businesses are facing their toughest conditions in more than two decades.
Staying long on USD & JPY seems the safest bet at the moment.
Forex Update - Tues 13Jan09 - London Session
London Session
Not a good session thsi morning. A few false starts, which caught most of us out. Level breaks, which retraced to a negative position enough to assume a wrong way trade, and then after closing they proceeded to move the corret way. But all in all, a fairly lack-lustre session in London. Cable had a poor start as there was some poor economic figures out, with the UK trade deficit widening to a worse than expected -£4.5 bln for November, worsening from the -£3.9 bln in October.
This caused GBP/USD to to work its way down to about a -85 pip drop to around the 1.4580/90 area by the time the session wound down. London markets pulled back again, too, which didn't help.
EUR/USD was fairly even over the session, settled comfortably at the 1.3280 level by the time we approached the New York session.
The Yen didn't do much. USD/JPY was fairly steady at 89.20/30, whilst EUR/JPY was marking time around the 118.50/60 area.
As New York is kicking off, we hear Fed Chairman Bernanke giving a fairly expected summary of the US economic situation and outlook. He reckons that the US fiscal stimulus will not give the US economy the lift it needs by itself. But we do think the dollar will gain some strength as there is no panic on what Bernanke is saying.
Not a good session thsi morning. A few false starts, which caught most of us out. Level breaks, which retraced to a negative position enough to assume a wrong way trade, and then after closing they proceeded to move the corret way. But all in all, a fairly lack-lustre session in London. Cable had a poor start as there was some poor economic figures out, with the UK trade deficit widening to a worse than expected -£4.5 bln for November, worsening from the -£3.9 bln in October.
This caused GBP/USD to to work its way down to about a -85 pip drop to around the 1.4580/90 area by the time the session wound down. London markets pulled back again, too, which didn't help.
EUR/USD was fairly even over the session, settled comfortably at the 1.3280 level by the time we approached the New York session.
The Yen didn't do much. USD/JPY was fairly steady at 89.20/30, whilst EUR/JPY was marking time around the 118.50/60 area.
As New York is kicking off, we hear Fed Chairman Bernanke giving a fairly expected summary of the US economic situation and outlook. He reckons that the US fiscal stimulus will not give the US economy the lift it needs by itself. But we do think the dollar will gain some strength as there is no panic on what Bernanke is saying.
Forex Update - Tues 13Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
News in the US helped some action. With the S&P lowering Spain's credit rating to negative, and the ECB expected to lower interest rates another 0.5% on Thursday, the Euro was being sold across the board. The S&P also downgraded Ireland and Greece's ratings last week.
EUR/USD kicked off the session up near 1.3372 highs, but faded and faded until it took a leap lower and settled at around the 1.3250 level by the time London was waking up.
EUR/JPY was up at 119.59 early doors, but fell to 118.30 later on in the session. Risk averse and safe havens come to mind here.
AUD/JPY fell from 60.90 to close to 60.20 as well, which means that AUD/JPY has fallen a massive 8 cents already this year.
USD/JPY fell from the 90.00 level to 88.90 during the session, but settled up at 89.50 before London kicked off. It is worth noting that it has fallen from 94.60 as this year kicked off. The Nikkei 225 closed down some 5% on the back of the Japanese government's poor approval rating of 18%. The Bank of Japan doesn't help, with an almost standard statement saying the are monitoring the Forex markets.
The S&P also lowered New Zealand's rating to negative. The Kiwi dollar took a pasting as a result. NSD/USD fell like a stone from around 0.5770 down to around 0.5590, meaning a drop of about 2% on the day.
Everyone is waiting for the ECB interest rate decision on Thuirsday. We wonder whether they will only chop 0.5% off, as the UK surprised everyone with a massive 1.5% when only 0.5% was expected.
News in the US helped some action. With the S&P lowering Spain's credit rating to negative, and the ECB expected to lower interest rates another 0.5% on Thursday, the Euro was being sold across the board. The S&P also downgraded Ireland and Greece's ratings last week.
EUR/USD kicked off the session up near 1.3372 highs, but faded and faded until it took a leap lower and settled at around the 1.3250 level by the time London was waking up.
EUR/JPY was up at 119.59 early doors, but fell to 118.30 later on in the session. Risk averse and safe havens come to mind here.
AUD/JPY fell from 60.90 to close to 60.20 as well, which means that AUD/JPY has fallen a massive 8 cents already this year.
USD/JPY fell from the 90.00 level to 88.90 during the session, but settled up at 89.50 before London kicked off. It is worth noting that it has fallen from 94.60 as this year kicked off. The Nikkei 225 closed down some 5% on the back of the Japanese government's poor approval rating of 18%. The Bank of Japan doesn't help, with an almost standard statement saying the are monitoring the Forex markets.
The S&P also lowered New Zealand's rating to negative. The Kiwi dollar took a pasting as a result. NSD/USD fell like a stone from around 0.5770 down to around 0.5590, meaning a drop of about 2% on the day.
Everyone is waiting for the ECB interest rate decision on Thuirsday. We wonder whether they will only chop 0.5% off, as the UK surprised everyone with a massive 1.5% when only 0.5% was expected.
Monday, 12 January 2009
Forex Update - Tues 12Jan09 - New York Session
New York Session
Atlanta Fed President Lockhart's speech helped a little, but the markets fell 2% in the US. He indicated that the 1st quarter of this year economic growth will probably be as bad a Q4 of last year, with a -4% to -6% decline. There was news that the S&P will maybe cut Spain's AAA credit rating. Spain amounts to 12% of the eurozone economy, menaing the Euro was sold in New York trading.
EUR/USD fell around -70 pips to the 1.3360 level as we approached the Asian session. It did break 1.3300, but soon returned above.
EUR/JPY showed the move away from risk as a fall of -150 pips towards the 119.10/20 level confirmed.
USD/JPY fell about -75 points towards the 89.00 level.
USD/CAD was up some +200 pips as the price of the black stuff fell to under US$38 bbl. USD/CAD was near 1.2170 by the time the session was closing. Watch for a 1.2000 break on the upside.
Atlanta Fed President Lockhart's speech helped a little, but the markets fell 2% in the US. He indicated that the 1st quarter of this year economic growth will probably be as bad a Q4 of last year, with a -4% to -6% decline. There was news that the S&P will maybe cut Spain's AAA credit rating. Spain amounts to 12% of the eurozone economy, menaing the Euro was sold in New York trading.
EUR/USD fell around -70 pips to the 1.3360 level as we approached the Asian session. It did break 1.3300, but soon returned above.
EUR/JPY showed the move away from risk as a fall of -150 pips towards the 119.10/20 level confirmed.
USD/JPY fell about -75 points towards the 89.00 level.
USD/CAD was up some +200 pips as the price of the black stuff fell to under US$38 bbl. USD/CAD was near 1.2170 by the time the session was closing. Watch for a 1.2000 break on the upside.
Today's Intra-Day Trades - Mon 12Jan09
Here are today's intra-day trades. Please note that some of the intra-day trades were taken during the Live Room session, so were live calls.
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+107 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.5052
Stop level: 1.5140
Target level: 1.4895
Closed: 1.4945 (+107 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+32 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.70
Stop level: 121.85
Target level: 119.15
Closed: 120.38 (+32 pips)
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (-10 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1970
Stop level: 1.1870
Target level: 1.2200
Closed: 1.1960 (-10 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+119 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.00
Stop level: 121.25
Target level: 118.60
Closed: 118.81 (+119 pips)
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+92 pips)
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 89.97
Stop level: 90.35
Target level: 88.45
Closed: 89.05 (+92 pips)
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (+149 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2001
Stop level: 1.1870
Target level: 1.2200
Closed: 1.2150 (+149 pips)
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+107 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.5052
Stop level: 1.5140
Target level: 1.4895
Closed: 1.4945 (+107 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+32 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.70
Stop level: 121.85
Target level: 119.15
Closed: 120.38 (+32 pips)
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (-10 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1970
Stop level: 1.1870
Target level: 1.2200
Closed: 1.1960 (-10 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+119 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.00
Stop level: 121.25
Target level: 118.60
Closed: 118.81 (+119 pips)
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+92 pips)
Open Short: USD/JPY @ 89.97
Stop level: 90.35
Target level: 88.45
Closed: 89.05 (+92 pips)
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (+149 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.2001
Stop level: 1.1870
Target level: 1.2200
Closed: 1.2150 (+149 pips)
Live Room Trading Update - Mon 12Jan09
Live Room Roundup - 12th Jan 2009
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 loss.
- 3 intra-day calls during the Live Room session; 2 wins, 1 small loss.
- 3 Intra-day trades currently open; all showing profit at time of posting.
USD/CHF – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1188
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level: 1.1163, -25 (full position) (Although closed just as changed corect direction - room members kept open and closed +30 pips)
- Stop: 1.1163
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3370
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3346, +24 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3395
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+107 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.5052
Stop level: 1.5140
Target level: 1.4895
Closed: 1.4945 (+107 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+32 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.70
Stop level: 121.85
Target level: 119.15
Closed: 120.38 (+32 pips)
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (-10 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1970
Stop level: 1.1870
Target level: 1.2200
Closed: 1.1960 (-10 pips)
Intra-day trades still open at time of post;
USD/JPY - Short trade currently open +57 pips
USD/USD - Long trade currently open +21 pips
EUR/JPY - Short trade currently open + 82 pips
Come and join the Live Room - www.marketbytes.com
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 loss.
- 3 intra-day calls during the Live Room session; 2 wins, 1 small loss.
- 3 Intra-day trades currently open; all showing profit at time of posting.
USD/CHF – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1188
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level: 1.1163, -25 (full position) (Although closed just as changed corect direction - room members kept open and closed +30 pips)
- Stop: 1.1163
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3370
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3346, +24 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3395
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+107 pips)
Open Short: GBP/USD @ 1.5052
Stop level: 1.5140
Target level: 1.4895
Closed: 1.4945 (+107 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+32 pips)
Open Short: EUR/JPY @ 120.70
Stop level: 121.85
Target level: 119.15
Closed: 120.38 (+32 pips)
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (-10 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1970
Stop level: 1.1870
Target level: 1.2200
Closed: 1.1960 (-10 pips)
Intra-day trades still open at time of post;
USD/JPY - Short trade currently open +57 pips
USD/USD - Long trade currently open +21 pips
EUR/JPY - Short trade currently open + 82 pips
Come and join the Live Room - www.marketbytes.com
Forex Update - Mon 12Jan09 - London Session
London Session
After what seemed like a slow start, thinsg picked up and we managed 5 trades in the room. There is some settling and re-jigging of levels before this ECB interest rate decision due on Thursday. This helped London have some action.
EUR/USD was up about +30 pips towards the 1.3430/40 zone.
GBP/USD fell about -100 points and was sitting near the big 1.5000/10 level as we approcahed the New York kick off.
The major Yen crosses were maily lower: with USD/JPY down -30 pips, breaking the 90.00 level, whilst EUR/JPY was down -15 pips to the 120.60/70 area. With stock markets falling somewhat acroiss the board the yen crosses stayed heavy.
USD/CAD rallied about +35 pips towards the 1.1970/80 level, as the price of the black stuff fell back below US$40 bbl. Demand concerns affecting the price of a barrel there, despite OPEC threats of production cuts and the problems in Israel/Gaza still around.
There isn't much due over the pond during the New York session. There is a speech by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart that might be worth listening to, but we can expect the usual US economic outlook. Any bad news and opinion will likely be priced in to the dollar, so unless anything amazing is said we wouldn't expect much reaction in trading, with techncal breaks being the reaosn for breaks of pairs.
After what seemed like a slow start, thinsg picked up and we managed 5 trades in the room. There is some settling and re-jigging of levels before this ECB interest rate decision due on Thursday. This helped London have some action.
EUR/USD was up about +30 pips towards the 1.3430/40 zone.
GBP/USD fell about -100 points and was sitting near the big 1.5000/10 level as we approcahed the New York kick off.
The major Yen crosses were maily lower: with USD/JPY down -30 pips, breaking the 90.00 level, whilst EUR/JPY was down -15 pips to the 120.60/70 area. With stock markets falling somewhat acroiss the board the yen crosses stayed heavy.
USD/CAD rallied about +35 pips towards the 1.1970/80 level, as the price of the black stuff fell back below US$40 bbl. Demand concerns affecting the price of a barrel there, despite OPEC threats of production cuts and the problems in Israel/Gaza still around.
There isn't much due over the pond during the New York session. There is a speech by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart that might be worth listening to, but we can expect the usual US economic outlook. Any bad news and opinion will likely be priced in to the dollar, so unless anything amazing is said we wouldn't expect much reaction in trading, with techncal breaks being the reaosn for breaks of pairs.
Market Bytes Live Room & Intra-day Trade Performance
So far - from 04Jan09 through to 09Jan09 we have some decent returns:
Live Room Trades: Performance - Jan 2009
Live Room Trades performance summary - Jan 2009 (5th - 9th). Total profit +124 pips.
Intra-day Trades: Performance - Jan 2009
Intra-day Trades performance summary - Jan 2009 (5th - 9th). Total profit +537 pips.
Quite a good start to the Year. Full break down of each trade on members' blog.
Live Room Trades: Performance - Jan 2009
Live Room Trades performance summary - Jan 2009 (5th - 9th). Total profit +124 pips.
Intra-day Trades: Performance - Jan 2009
Intra-day Trades performance summary - Jan 2009 (5th - 9th). Total profit +537 pips.
Quite a good start to the Year. Full break down of each trade on members' blog.
Forex Update - Mon 12Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
It was another Japanese holiday, so not much action, although the US Dollar did make some gains against most majors whilst it was so quiet. USD/JPY didn't do much, though, channeling in a 35 pip range. The US non-farm payroll figures on Friday caused the markets to fall, with some realisation settling in rather quickly that the fresh Obama isn't going to sort the mess out over night, despite printing dollars like there is no tomorrow.
EUR/USD started the week around 1.3470, then fell off down to 1.3380 area, before picking up a little but settling back on 1.3380 again. There is not much data this week in Europe, so whether we see some decent break outs and level breaks we shall have to wait and see. There is the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday, where a following of the BoE 0.5% cut looks to be expected. There is some data out of the US this week, though, so maybe action there.
USD/JPY just seemed th channel in a range between 90.25 and 89.91, as we said above, and EUR/JPY drifted down to 120.40. It wasn't so long ago we were at almost 141.50.
AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY were both sold off, with AUD/JPY down to the 62.15 low, and NZD/JPY itting a low of about 52.58. This is ually associated with some risk averse trading.
AUD/USD was down today in Asian trading, finishing at 0.7025, up from the session's low of just under 0.6900.
GBP/USD fell from the kick off and then channeled in that 35 pip range between 1.5150 and 1.5050.
As mentioned above, it is just really the ECB interest rate decision news in Europe this week, but there is a fair amount of data and figures coming from over the pond this week that may help us take some decent trades.
It was another Japanese holiday, so not much action, although the US Dollar did make some gains against most majors whilst it was so quiet. USD/JPY didn't do much, though, channeling in a 35 pip range. The US non-farm payroll figures on Friday caused the markets to fall, with some realisation settling in rather quickly that the fresh Obama isn't going to sort the mess out over night, despite printing dollars like there is no tomorrow.
EUR/USD started the week around 1.3470, then fell off down to 1.3380 area, before picking up a little but settling back on 1.3380 again. There is not much data this week in Europe, so whether we see some decent break outs and level breaks we shall have to wait and see. There is the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday, where a following of the BoE 0.5% cut looks to be expected. There is some data out of the US this week, though, so maybe action there.
USD/JPY just seemed th channel in a range between 90.25 and 89.91, as we said above, and EUR/JPY drifted down to 120.40. It wasn't so long ago we were at almost 141.50.
AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY were both sold off, with AUD/JPY down to the 62.15 low, and NZD/JPY itting a low of about 52.58. This is ually associated with some risk averse trading.
AUD/USD was down today in Asian trading, finishing at 0.7025, up from the session's low of just under 0.6900.
GBP/USD fell from the kick off and then channeled in that 35 pip range between 1.5150 and 1.5050.
As mentioned above, it is just really the ECB interest rate decision news in Europe this week, but there is a fair amount of data and figures coming from over the pond this week that may help us take some decent trades.
Friday, 9 January 2009
Forex Update - Fri 09Jan09 - London Session
London Session
It was a fairly dull morning in London, and we don't just mean the weather. Price action was virtually stagnant, with an eye watching and waiting for the non-farm payroll figure after lunch. With -500k expected looking to be beaten, some action should appear soon. The DDP report came in at -693K for December, so it doesn't look to be good news. Unemployment is more than likely to hit 7%, bip from 6.7% last month. Expect a weaker dollar if this is the case, but if the figure isn't as bad then the reverse is likely, and the dollar will rally.
Back to morning trading in London, where EUR/USD was up only about +15 pips, sitting around the 1.3700 level as we approached New York kick off.
GBP/USD was up about +70 pips at the 1.5300 zone. We saw thgis level yesterday, but fell back through. he non-farm payroll figure will see movememt here, one way or the other.
USD/CAD was fairly even, sitting around the 1.1850/60 level despite the Canadian employment report coming in weaker than expected at -34k jobs in December. This figure wasn't the true picture, though, as full time employment fell -70Km whilst part-time employment was up 36K, which gives the figure of -36k job when added together.
Depending on the non-farm figure, USD/CAD could easily test that low for the week at 1.1750 again.
It was a fairly dull morning in London, and we don't just mean the weather. Price action was virtually stagnant, with an eye watching and waiting for the non-farm payroll figure after lunch. With -500k expected looking to be beaten, some action should appear soon. The DDP report came in at -693K for December, so it doesn't look to be good news. Unemployment is more than likely to hit 7%, bip from 6.7% last month. Expect a weaker dollar if this is the case, but if the figure isn't as bad then the reverse is likely, and the dollar will rally.
Back to morning trading in London, where EUR/USD was up only about +15 pips, sitting around the 1.3700 level as we approached New York kick off.
GBP/USD was up about +70 pips at the 1.5300 zone. We saw thgis level yesterday, but fell back through. he non-farm payroll figure will see movememt here, one way or the other.
USD/CAD was fairly even, sitting around the 1.1850/60 level despite the Canadian employment report coming in weaker than expected at -34k jobs in December. This figure wasn't the true picture, though, as full time employment fell -70Km whilst part-time employment was up 36K, which gives the figure of -36k job when added together.
Depending on the non-farm figure, USD/CAD could easily test that low for the week at 1.1750 again.
Forex Update - Thurs 09Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
The US dollar felt like fighting back a little, and picked up some of the losses against the Euro, which was after seeing a high up at almost 1.3800. As Asia kicked off the EUR/USD pair was around the 1.3720 level, and subsequently fell back as the session went on, hitting a of 1.3631 before calming down and settling around 1.3650.
The US dollar also did ok against Cable and the Swissy as well.
With UK interest rates cut by 0.5% to 1.5% as expected, Cable gained some strength, probably in that the economy may get a boost. GBP/USD in Asia trading reversed these gains, falling from a 1.5248 high to a low of 1.5165, before settling about 30 pips higher at 1.5195 level. The 0.50% interest rate cut wasn't that exciting, with nearly every prediction being just that, but it is worth nothing that the 1.5% interst rate level is the lowest on record, since kick off in 1694.
EUR/GBP drifted down from 0.9011 to around 0.8985, around -26 pips on the session.
USD/CHF drifted up from a session kick off at about 1.0924 up to a high at the close of the session on the 1.0970 level, a rise of about +46 pips.
USD/JPY wasn't as calm, but did end up exactly where it started, which was around the 91.15 level. This was after a high of almost 92.00 and a low of 91.09.
During the London session this morning there is much data due. This includes German Industrial Production and Retail Sales, French Trade Balance and Industrial Production, and the Euro Zone Retail Sales. Later on, just as the USD session wakes up we get the US as NFP figures, which expect to be poor. A loss of 495K is expected. Watch for this at 13:30. Happy Trading
The US dollar felt like fighting back a little, and picked up some of the losses against the Euro, which was after seeing a high up at almost 1.3800. As Asia kicked off the EUR/USD pair was around the 1.3720 level, and subsequently fell back as the session went on, hitting a of 1.3631 before calming down and settling around 1.3650.
The US dollar also did ok against Cable and the Swissy as well.
With UK interest rates cut by 0.5% to 1.5% as expected, Cable gained some strength, probably in that the economy may get a boost. GBP/USD in Asia trading reversed these gains, falling from a 1.5248 high to a low of 1.5165, before settling about 30 pips higher at 1.5195 level. The 0.50% interest rate cut wasn't that exciting, with nearly every prediction being just that, but it is worth nothing that the 1.5% interst rate level is the lowest on record, since kick off in 1694.
EUR/GBP drifted down from 0.9011 to around 0.8985, around -26 pips on the session.
USD/CHF drifted up from a session kick off at about 1.0924 up to a high at the close of the session on the 1.0970 level, a rise of about +46 pips.
USD/JPY wasn't as calm, but did end up exactly where it started, which was around the 91.15 level. This was after a high of almost 92.00 and a low of 91.09.
During the London session this morning there is much data due. This includes German Industrial Production and Retail Sales, French Trade Balance and Industrial Production, and the Euro Zone Retail Sales. Later on, just as the USD session wakes up we get the US as NFP figures, which expect to be poor. A loss of 495K is expected. Watch for this at 13:30. Happy Trading
Thursday, 8 January 2009
Forex Update - Thurs 08Jan09 - New York Session
New York Session
There was some rollercoastering after New York kicked off, with some swift movements and action, as poor data gave reason. It all seemed to recoved later on as it was felt that housing problems are (sort of) being sorted out. Initial jobless claims came in much lower than expected at 467K, but there was a distinct feeling that the figure had been manip[ulated, or wasn't showing the real picture, possibly due to the Christmas holiday season. This just made the total ongoing continuing claims being at 4.6m now, up from 4.5m, which is worrying.
Obama gave a message saying that the US will spend its way out of this recession (depression?). This didn't help the stock markets, with share prices falling back immediately to lows for the day. Later during Wall Street there was news that one of the major US investment house has sorted out and agreed a plan with US Senators to modify mortgages, as has happened in the UK, where there should now be far less foreclosures (reposessions). This helped the Wall Street, which was up about 0.3%.
The US dollar didn't do so well, though, with more and more money being printed. Obama can't print enough.
EUR/USD jumped around +100 pips, sitting around the 1.3710 level as the session wound down. The 1.3800 level was the resistance today, but expect a break if the Non-Farm Payroll figures are poor tomorrow. But be careful, though.
GBP/USD ended the session just about where it had started, near the 1.5240 level. Initially we saw a drive for the 1.5370 resistance level, but the push didn't hold. We feel we could still tend higher, with 1.5100 being significant support.
USD/CAD fell back, despite oil not doing much. The price of the black stuff was a little down at US$42.40 bbl. CAD fell more than -200 pips, after an attempt at the 1.1200 level failed. The room call of intra-day short was excellent. The pair ended the session near the massive 1.1800 level, with a break seeing 1.1750 nudged if that is the case.
There was some rollercoastering after New York kicked off, with some swift movements and action, as poor data gave reason. It all seemed to recoved later on as it was felt that housing problems are (sort of) being sorted out. Initial jobless claims came in much lower than expected at 467K, but there was a distinct feeling that the figure had been manip[ulated, or wasn't showing the real picture, possibly due to the Christmas holiday season. This just made the total ongoing continuing claims being at 4.6m now, up from 4.5m, which is worrying.
Obama gave a message saying that the US will spend its way out of this recession (depression?). This didn't help the stock markets, with share prices falling back immediately to lows for the day. Later during Wall Street there was news that one of the major US investment house has sorted out and agreed a plan with US Senators to modify mortgages, as has happened in the UK, where there should now be far less foreclosures (reposessions). This helped the Wall Street, which was up about 0.3%.
The US dollar didn't do so well, though, with more and more money being printed. Obama can't print enough.
EUR/USD jumped around +100 pips, sitting around the 1.3710 level as the session wound down. The 1.3800 level was the resistance today, but expect a break if the Non-Farm Payroll figures are poor tomorrow. But be careful, though.
GBP/USD ended the session just about where it had started, near the 1.5240 level. Initially we saw a drive for the 1.5370 resistance level, but the push didn't hold. We feel we could still tend higher, with 1.5100 being significant support.
USD/CAD fell back, despite oil not doing much. The price of the black stuff was a little down at US$42.40 bbl. CAD fell more than -200 pips, after an attempt at the 1.1200 level failed. The room call of intra-day short was excellent. The pair ended the session near the massive 1.1800 level, with a break seeing 1.1750 nudged if that is the case.
Forex Update - Thurs 08Jan09 - London Session
London Session
It was actually the end of the London session that saw some decent action today, as the Bank of England cut interest rates by the expected 0.5% to 1.5% gave cable a bit of a rally. It seems that the MPC report basically says the the UK economy won't be gaetting any better for some time, and that the weak STG GBP is actually doing the country some good. In fact, the MPC said that the weak Quid will helkp exports, and thus help the country back to some sort of normailty all that sooner. With all this, the inevitable happened and Cable rallied stronger.
In fact, GBP/USD leapt some +270 pips during the session, and was around the 1.5240/50 level as we approached the US New York session. Note that the 1.5300 level is a heavy resistance level, and a break would be significant. If cable falls, then a break under the 1.5150/00 level would be a big breach, with further downside if that occurs.
With cable in the limelight, EUR/USD didn't do much at all. In fact, the Euro ended the session pretty much where it bagan, sitting around the 1.3570/80 area.
USD/JPY was pretty much steady as well, despite earlier action, finishing the London session a little lower around the 91.70 level.
EUR/JPY was also down a little, sitting near the 124.40/50 area.
It was actually the end of the London session that saw some decent action today, as the Bank of England cut interest rates by the expected 0.5% to 1.5% gave cable a bit of a rally. It seems that the MPC report basically says the the UK economy won't be gaetting any better for some time, and that the weak STG GBP is actually doing the country some good. In fact, the MPC said that the weak Quid will helkp exports, and thus help the country back to some sort of normailty all that sooner. With all this, the inevitable happened and Cable rallied stronger.
In fact, GBP/USD leapt some +270 pips during the session, and was around the 1.5240/50 level as we approached the US New York session. Note that the 1.5300 level is a heavy resistance level, and a break would be significant. If cable falls, then a break under the 1.5150/00 level would be a big breach, with further downside if that occurs.
With cable in the limelight, EUR/USD didn't do much at all. In fact, the Euro ended the session pretty much where it bagan, sitting around the 1.3570/80 area.
USD/JPY was pretty much steady as well, despite earlier action, finishing the London session a little lower around the 91.70 level.
EUR/JPY was also down a little, sitting near the 124.40/50 area.
Forex Live Room Trades - Thurs 08Jan09
Live Room Round Up - 8th Jan 2009
Whilst there were 2 or 3 other sucessful trades by room members this morning, the official calls are explained below.
London Session
- 3 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 small loss and 1 breakeven.
- 5 intra-day calls; 2 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven, 1 still open.
EUR/JPY – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 125.17
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 124.79, +38 (full position)
- Stop: 125.67
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3558
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1.3563, -5 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3583
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/JPY – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 91.77
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 91.77, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 92.02
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come and join the Live Room - www.marketbytes.com. There are intra-day trade alerts sent out during the afternoon as well.
Come and see the Real Traders...
Whilst there were 2 or 3 other sucessful trades by room members this morning, the official calls are explained below.
London Session
- 3 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 small loss and 1 breakeven.
- 5 intra-day calls; 2 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven, 1 still open.
EUR/JPY – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 125.17
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 124.79, +38 (full position)
- Stop: 125.67
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3558
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1.3563, -5 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3583
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/JPY – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 91.77
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 91.77, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 92.02
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come and join the Live Room - www.marketbytes.com. There are intra-day trade alerts sent out during the afternoon as well.
Come and see the Real Traders...
Forex Update - Thurs 08Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
The US Dollar fought back a little during the Asian session, with many thinking maybe the green back was oversold. The US dollar made some claw back against the Euro in early Far East trading, despite the poor unemployment figures from thr US.
The EUR/USD fell from the early high of 1.3670 down to 1.3558, the strongest the dollar made, then some Euro buying came back in and pair was around the 1.3620 area by the time the session was coming to a close.
It is worth nothing that the EUR/USD has been all over the place this week, from a low of 1.3312 to up near 1.3960 at the top end. Quite volatile, but nice for trading.
USD/JPY couldn't make its mind up what to do. It was up and down from 92.90 to 92.46, looking like it was confused. The Yen has seemed to baulk near the 92.50 level after that move from the 94.60 area yesterday.
EUR/JPY was channeling along, too, moving up and down between 126.46 and 125.77. This after moves up from the 128.50 level earlier this week. Asian stock markets pulled back from gains this last few days after the US and London had done the same yesterday.
AUD/USD continued falling from its recent high of 0.7240, reaching a low of about 0.7025 during the Asian session. This was in-line with the fall of soemthuing like 12% in the price of the black stuff, which we mentioned last night. Other commodities were all down, too.
News from Eurozone during the London session will be fairly busy. German Trade Balance, Current Account and Factory Orders, Swiss CPI and Employment, and Euro Zone Employment and GDP are all due, as well as the Bank of England interest rate decision, which is annouced at lunchtime. We expect another 0.5% cut in interest rates to the 1.5% level there.
The US Dollar fought back a little during the Asian session, with many thinking maybe the green back was oversold. The US dollar made some claw back against the Euro in early Far East trading, despite the poor unemployment figures from thr US.
The EUR/USD fell from the early high of 1.3670 down to 1.3558, the strongest the dollar made, then some Euro buying came back in and pair was around the 1.3620 area by the time the session was coming to a close.
It is worth nothing that the EUR/USD has been all over the place this week, from a low of 1.3312 to up near 1.3960 at the top end. Quite volatile, but nice for trading.
USD/JPY couldn't make its mind up what to do. It was up and down from 92.90 to 92.46, looking like it was confused. The Yen has seemed to baulk near the 92.50 level after that move from the 94.60 area yesterday.
EUR/JPY was channeling along, too, moving up and down between 126.46 and 125.77. This after moves up from the 128.50 level earlier this week. Asian stock markets pulled back from gains this last few days after the US and London had done the same yesterday.
AUD/USD continued falling from its recent high of 0.7240, reaching a low of about 0.7025 during the Asian session. This was in-line with the fall of soemthuing like 12% in the price of the black stuff, which we mentioned last night. Other commodities were all down, too.
News from Eurozone during the London session will be fairly busy. German Trade Balance, Current Account and Factory Orders, Swiss CPI and Employment, and Euro Zone Employment and GDP are all due, as well as the Bank of England interest rate decision, which is annouced at lunchtime. We expect another 0.5% cut in interest rates to the 1.5% level there.
Wednesday, 7 January 2009
Forex Update - Wed 07Jan09 - New York Session
New York Session
The weaker dollar continued in to the New York session, with most other major currencies taking advantage of the poor data from the US. The ADP employment figures were much higher than the -476k in November, down -693K jobs in December. Bad news. Add on the surge in jobless claims and we can assume that the Non-Farm Payroll figure on Friday will be a bad one. The expected figure for the NFP is a -615k drop for December, which is on the back of a -533K for November. More bad news. This will be worse than the market consensus of a -500K figure, and smacks us all in the face that there is serious downside risk here. Exp, and be careful on Friday.
Back to the New York session pairs, where EUR/USD was up about +50 pips towards the 1.3640/50 area. Note that the 1.3750 level provided a good resistance to upside, with obvious selling in to 1.3720/40 arena noted. A break of the 1.3600 level looks to be a big break for more downside, so watch for further falls.
On to Cable, where GBP/USD was up about +40 pips near the 1.5090/95 area, staying well above the now broken 1.5000 level, but the maybe premature rush towards the 1.5300 level was short-lived. Although our Cable Sterling does not look tired, and we think has more energy in its reserves to push through the 1.53 level, especially with the poor job figures over the pond. Mind you, just to sit on the fence a little, be careful if there is a break down back through that 1.500 level as it could see more downside. After all, it isn't all roses here in the UK, don't forget.
On to the black stuff, where a surprising drop of some 12% in the price of a barrel of crude oil saw a price at just above the US$42 bbl level. The weekly inventory numbers were far higher than expected, with the expected +900K barrels for the week actually coming in at a staggering +6.7m barrels. Can't complain. This saw the USD/CAD pair move up about +120 pips to the 1.1940 area during the session, depsite all the jobless figure gloom and doom. The USD/CAD 1.2000 level was a strong resistance again, and looks to be the level to break, especially if the problems in Israel/Gaza do clam down.
The weaker dollar continued in to the New York session, with most other major currencies taking advantage of the poor data from the US. The ADP employment figures were much higher than the -476k in November, down -693K jobs in December. Bad news. Add on the surge in jobless claims and we can assume that the Non-Farm Payroll figure on Friday will be a bad one. The expected figure for the NFP is a -615k drop for December, which is on the back of a -533K for November. More bad news. This will be worse than the market consensus of a -500K figure, and smacks us all in the face that there is serious downside risk here. Exp, and be careful on Friday.
Back to the New York session pairs, where EUR/USD was up about +50 pips towards the 1.3640/50 area. Note that the 1.3750 level provided a good resistance to upside, with obvious selling in to 1.3720/40 arena noted. A break of the 1.3600 level looks to be a big break for more downside, so watch for further falls.
On to Cable, where GBP/USD was up about +40 pips near the 1.5090/95 area, staying well above the now broken 1.5000 level, but the maybe premature rush towards the 1.5300 level was short-lived. Although our Cable Sterling does not look tired, and we think has more energy in its reserves to push through the 1.53 level, especially with the poor job figures over the pond. Mind you, just to sit on the fence a little, be careful if there is a break down back through that 1.500 level as it could see more downside. After all, it isn't all roses here in the UK, don't forget.
On to the black stuff, where a surprising drop of some 12% in the price of a barrel of crude oil saw a price at just above the US$42 bbl level. The weekly inventory numbers were far higher than expected, with the expected +900K barrels for the week actually coming in at a staggering +6.7m barrels. Can't complain. This saw the USD/CAD pair move up about +120 pips to the 1.1940 area during the session, depsite all the jobless figure gloom and doom. The USD/CAD 1.2000 level was a strong resistance again, and looks to be the level to break, especially if the problems in Israel/Gaza do clam down.
Trade Update - Afternoon Trades - Wed 07Jan09
Afternoon Forex Roundup – 07 January 2009
Two intra-day (afternoon) trades today.
This trade was sent before the set up appeared, as a 'heads up'...
USD/CAD - Long trade setup
I will be looking to go long on USD/CAD on the break of 1.1865.
The current price is 1.1846, trade is not opened yet.
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1865
Stop level: 1.1750
Target level: 1.1990
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (+70 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1865
Stop level: 1.1750
Target level: 1.1990
Closed: 1.1935 (+70 pips)
AUD/USD - Short trade closed (+35 pips)
Open Short: AUD/USD @ 0.7181
Stop level: 0.7290
Target level: 0.7030
Closed: 0.7146 (+35 pips)
That's +105 pips this afternoon in two trades.
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Two intra-day (afternoon) trades today.
This trade was sent before the set up appeared, as a 'heads up'...
USD/CAD - Long trade setup
I will be looking to go long on USD/CAD on the break of 1.1865.
The current price is 1.1846, trade is not opened yet.
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1865
Stop level: 1.1750
Target level: 1.1990
USD/CAD - Long trade closed (+70 pips)
Open Long: USD/CAD @ 1.1865
Stop level: 1.1750
Target level: 1.1990
Closed: 1.1935 (+70 pips)
AUD/USD - Short trade closed (+35 pips)
Open Short: AUD/USD @ 0.7181
Stop level: 0.7290
Target level: 0.7030
Closed: 0.7146 (+35 pips)
That's +105 pips this afternoon in two trades.
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Live Room Trade Update - Wed 07Jan09
Live Room Trades - London Session
- 4 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 loss and 2 breakeven trades. Although there were two or three other 'not officially called' trades taken by some subscribers, namely a successful 45 pip CHF trade, a 35 pip CHF trade, and a similar level on the Euro.
Details of the Live Room Call Trades:
EUR/USD – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3542
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1.3542, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3517
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4862
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4862, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4887
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1135
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1135, +35 (full position)
- Stop: 1.1160
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1070
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1080, -10 (full position)
- Stop: 1.1095
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
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- 4 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 loss and 2 breakeven trades. Although there were two or three other 'not officially called' trades taken by some subscribers, namely a successful 45 pip CHF trade, a 35 pip CHF trade, and a similar level on the Euro.
Details of the Live Room Call Trades:
EUR/USD – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3542
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1.3542, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3517
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4862
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4862, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4887
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1135
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1135, +35 (full position)
- Stop: 1.1160
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CHF – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1070
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.1080, -10 (full position)
- Stop: 1.1095
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come and join the REAL Traders at www.marketbytes.com.
Forex Update - Wed 07Jan09 - London Session
London Session
It was a fairly non-volatile session this morning in London trading, although the US dollar was the one under pressure, mainly due to the poor data figures released yesterday across the pond.
News from the Eurozone was that the German unemployment rate came in higher than expected at 7.6% for December, with news that 18,000 jobs were lost during the month. Also from Eurozone was news that producer prices fell a worrying -1.9% in November, which was the worst decline in 27 years. However, what this did was give more weight to the speculation that the ECB will reduce interest rates again later this month.
back to trading this morning, where EUR/USD was up about 30 pips near the 1.3610 level as we approached the New York kick off. Note that the 1.3550 level was briefly tested this morning, so it does remain a level to watch as a pivot point.
GBP/USD was up some +80 pips as the dollar took a small beating from Cable, up into the 1.50 resistance area. A break of the 1.50 level would see more upseide, we feel.
The yen was fairly flat this morning, really, with USD/JPY down a -20 pips to the 93.20/30 level, and EUR/JPY just hovering flat at the 127 pivot point level.
Not much news from the US during the New York session today, but we will all be watching the ADP employment figures out in a short while. A drop of -493k is expected for December, expect to see US dollar heading lower again.
It was a fairly non-volatile session this morning in London trading, although the US dollar was the one under pressure, mainly due to the poor data figures released yesterday across the pond.
News from the Eurozone was that the German unemployment rate came in higher than expected at 7.6% for December, with news that 18,000 jobs were lost during the month. Also from Eurozone was news that producer prices fell a worrying -1.9% in November, which was the worst decline in 27 years. However, what this did was give more weight to the speculation that the ECB will reduce interest rates again later this month.
back to trading this morning, where EUR/USD was up about 30 pips near the 1.3610 level as we approached the New York kick off. Note that the 1.3550 level was briefly tested this morning, so it does remain a level to watch as a pivot point.
GBP/USD was up some +80 pips as the dollar took a small beating from Cable, up into the 1.50 resistance area. A break of the 1.50 level would see more upseide, we feel.
The yen was fairly flat this morning, really, with USD/JPY down a -20 pips to the 93.20/30 level, and EUR/JPY just hovering flat at the 127 pivot point level.
Not much news from the US during the New York session today, but we will all be watching the ADP employment figures out in a short while. A drop of -493k is expected for December, expect to see US dollar heading lower again.
Forex Update - Wed 07Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
The US Dollar gained on the Yen and some temporary gains on the Euro before pretty much marking time for the rest of the session. With Japan's Nikkei 225 up for the 9the consecutive session, news that the Japanese Government would be more than likely abolish the 40% capital gains tax for (CGT) that foreigners pay when holding Japanese companies in funds this year.
USD/JPY was up from a early low of 93.26 to reach a high of 94.13 before falling a little to finish the session around the 94.00 level.
EUR/JPY was busier, hitting a 125.78 low and breaking a 27.00 high.
EUR/USD fell back down to around 1.3431 but climbed back up to a high of about 1.3540, before retracing to about the 1.3500 level as we approached the London session.
It seems that Obama's plan for economy stimulous has given the US dollar some strength, but we are not sure how long this elation will be hanging around. Things don't get better over night.
In the London session there will be data including German employment and the Euro Zone PPI figures.
The US Dollar gained on the Yen and some temporary gains on the Euro before pretty much marking time for the rest of the session. With Japan's Nikkei 225 up for the 9the consecutive session, news that the Japanese Government would be more than likely abolish the 40% capital gains tax for (CGT) that foreigners pay when holding Japanese companies in funds this year.
USD/JPY was up from a early low of 93.26 to reach a high of 94.13 before falling a little to finish the session around the 94.00 level.
EUR/JPY was busier, hitting a 125.78 low and breaking a 27.00 high.
EUR/USD fell back down to around 1.3431 but climbed back up to a high of about 1.3540, before retracing to about the 1.3500 level as we approached the London session.
It seems that Obama's plan for economy stimulous has given the US dollar some strength, but we are not sure how long this elation will be hanging around. Things don't get better over night.
In the London session there will be data including German employment and the Euro Zone PPI figures.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
Forex Update - Tues 06Jan09 - New York Session
New York Session
The dollar fell back during the New York session after some poor economic data from the US and the FOMC meeting minutes didn't help as they were to the point. The ISM services index came in a little better but still at a poor 40.6 for December, after a 37.3 figure for November. Factory orders for November were worse at -4.6% key capital expenditure gave a revised GDP to a terrible 3-month annual rate of -28.0%. News that pending home sales were -4.0% in November doesnt't paint a good picture for Q1 2009.
Then the FOMC meeting minutes added to the woe, with its members reminding everyone of the significant downside risks to US economic growth, whilst confirming continued lowering of inflation, and some members saying this contraction in activity will be rather prolonged. Seeing as the Fed can't really reduce rates from zero (!), it just leaves the option of pumping even more cash in to the very troubled US economy.
EUR/USD ran up some +200 pips as the New York session kicked off and was up at around the 1.3530 level as the session closed. The next resistence looks to be the 1.3570/80 level, which is a trend break. This would see a target of around 1.3650.
GBP/USD had a even better run, up some +350 pips to the 1.4920/30 area, even hitting a high of near 1.50 level, with that being a significant break if it occurs. Don't forget that the Bank of England meets later this week and further cuts in UK interest rates could be on the cards.
The dollar fell back during the New York session after some poor economic data from the US and the FOMC meeting minutes didn't help as they were to the point. The ISM services index came in a little better but still at a poor 40.6 for December, after a 37.3 figure for November. Factory orders for November were worse at -4.6% key capital expenditure gave a revised GDP to a terrible 3-month annual rate of -28.0%. News that pending home sales were -4.0% in November doesnt't paint a good picture for Q1 2009.
Then the FOMC meeting minutes added to the woe, with its members reminding everyone of the significant downside risks to US economic growth, whilst confirming continued lowering of inflation, and some members saying this contraction in activity will be rather prolonged. Seeing as the Fed can't really reduce rates from zero (!), it just leaves the option of pumping even more cash in to the very troubled US economy.
EUR/USD ran up some +200 pips as the New York session kicked off and was up at around the 1.3530 level as the session closed. The next resistence looks to be the 1.3570/80 level, which is a trend break. This would see a target of around 1.3650.
GBP/USD had a even better run, up some +350 pips to the 1.4920/30 area, even hitting a high of near 1.50 level, with that being a significant break if it occurs. Don't forget that the Bank of England meets later this week and further cuts in UK interest rates could be on the cards.
Forex Update - Tues 06Jan09 - London Session
London Session
It was almsot like yesterday repeated, with the €uro taking a bit of a hammering again. With the eurozone consumer price estimate for December coming out just below expectations at 1.6%, down from the 2.1% figure for November. We can expect more ECB interest rate cuts this month, we think, with inflation worries moving to a less important position.
EUR/USD was smashed some -150 pips during the London session, settling at around the 1.3310/20 level by the time New York was getting ready for kick off. If we break 1.3250 level expect some more downside.
EUR/JPY was also lower, down more than -70 pips towards the 1.2520/30 level.
The price of the black stuff continued up, breaking the US$50 bbl level. This caused USD/CAD to fall off some -80 pips to around the 1.1890 level. We see a break of 1.1820 being an important level. Tension in the Israel/Gaza region also adding to concerns, but be careful the price doesn't fall back again fairly swiftly if all the problems subside and clam down.
It was almsot like yesterday repeated, with the €uro taking a bit of a hammering again. With the eurozone consumer price estimate for December coming out just below expectations at 1.6%, down from the 2.1% figure for November. We can expect more ECB interest rate cuts this month, we think, with inflation worries moving to a less important position.
EUR/USD was smashed some -150 pips during the London session, settling at around the 1.3310/20 level by the time New York was getting ready for kick off. If we break 1.3250 level expect some more downside.
EUR/JPY was also lower, down more than -70 pips towards the 1.2520/30 level.
The price of the black stuff continued up, breaking the US$50 bbl level. This caused USD/CAD to fall off some -80 pips to around the 1.1890 level. We see a break of 1.1820 being an important level. Tension in the Israel/Gaza region also adding to concerns, but be careful the price doesn't fall back again fairly swiftly if all the problems subside and clam down.
Forex Update - Tues 06Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
It was fairly quiet in Asia early doors, especially after such moves during the London & New York sessions, but then the US dollar set off again. The 100 pip channel was breached when the EUR/USD fell from around the 1.3610 level to around 1.3500 in under an hour. The dollar still looking attarctive on the back of Obama's US$775 bln stimulous package. The Italian Bond 'fiasco' probably didn't help the €uro, either.
GBP/USD did similar, falling from the session high of around 1.4722 to hit a low of 1.4570, with EUR/GBP remaining failry steady between 0.9291 and 0.9255 after the big fall yesterday.
EUR/JPY saw big falls from the early highs of 127.40 to a low later in the day around 125.75. This in effect neutralised the moves in USD/JPY, which was fairly downbeat but quiet, falling from an early high of 93.58 to a low of about 92.85. It ended the session around the 93.10 level.
There is some UK & Euro zone data out today, so be careful. This includes the PMI composite and consumer price estimate.
It was fairly quiet in Asia early doors, especially after such moves during the London & New York sessions, but then the US dollar set off again. The 100 pip channel was breached when the EUR/USD fell from around the 1.3610 level to around 1.3500 in under an hour. The dollar still looking attarctive on the back of Obama's US$775 bln stimulous package. The Italian Bond 'fiasco' probably didn't help the €uro, either.
GBP/USD did similar, falling from the session high of around 1.4722 to hit a low of 1.4570, with EUR/GBP remaining failry steady between 0.9291 and 0.9255 after the big fall yesterday.
EUR/JPY saw big falls from the early highs of 127.40 to a low later in the day around 125.75. This in effect neutralised the moves in USD/JPY, which was fairly downbeat but quiet, falling from an early high of 93.58 to a low of about 92.85. It ended the session around the 93.10 level.
There is some UK & Euro zone data out today, so be careful. This includes the PMI composite and consumer price estimate.
Monday, 5 January 2009
Forex Update - Mon 05Jan09 - New York Session
New York Session
The US dollar was lower against most of the big pairs in New York trading, this after the stock fell back and some poor economic data, helped some big technical level and set up breaks. On the stock market the S&P 500 fell about -0.5%, which was helped by a reported weak November construction spending report, coupled with very poor auto vehicle sales for December.
EUR/USD was up over 50 pips, sitting near the 1.3610/20 level by the time the session was nearing its end. A break up of 1.3650 will see further upside, we feel.
GBP/USD did better and was up over 200 pips around the 1.4710/20 zone.
On to the black stuff, where we seem to have well and truly come off the floor. Oil was up over 5% to trying to get through the massive US$50 bbl level. Current trouble in the middle East, namely Israel/Gaza, was causing tensions and concerns in the oil market. This cuased the London rise in USD/CAD to be reversed, with a -230 pip fallback to around the 1.1870 level, which was an intraday low, by the time the session came to a close. A break of the 1.20 level appears to be a massive break. If we break back above a long trade would be on the cards for us.
Happy Trading.
The US dollar was lower against most of the big pairs in New York trading, this after the stock fell back and some poor economic data, helped some big technical level and set up breaks. On the stock market the S&P 500 fell about -0.5%, which was helped by a reported weak November construction spending report, coupled with very poor auto vehicle sales for December.
EUR/USD was up over 50 pips, sitting near the 1.3610/20 level by the time the session was nearing its end. A break up of 1.3650 will see further upside, we feel.
GBP/USD did better and was up over 200 pips around the 1.4710/20 zone.
On to the black stuff, where we seem to have well and truly come off the floor. Oil was up over 5% to trying to get through the massive US$50 bbl level. Current trouble in the middle East, namely Israel/Gaza, was causing tensions and concerns in the oil market. This cuased the London rise in USD/CAD to be reversed, with a -230 pip fallback to around the 1.1870 level, which was an intraday low, by the time the session came to a close. A break of the 1.20 level appears to be a massive break. If we break back above a long trade would be on the cards for us.
Happy Trading.
Today's Called Trades - Mon 05Jan09
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 1 big win and 1 closed at breakeven.
- Currently looking at USD/CAD as a possible intra-day trading opportunity.
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3838
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3772, +66 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3863
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2178
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level: 1.2178, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2153
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (+135 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2015
Stop level: 1.2125-30 region
Target level: 1.1870
Closed: 1.1880 (+135 pips)
Close to target
AUD/USD - Long trade closed (+0 pips)
Open Long: AUD/USD @ 0.7162
Stop level: 0.7050
Target level: 0.7280
Closed: 0.7162 (+0 pips)
That's +201 pips in one day from called trades, and doesn't count the level breaks sent out early this morning that would have netted 100s more during the London session.
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- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 1 big win and 1 closed at breakeven.
- Currently looking at USD/CAD as a possible intra-day trading opportunity.
EUR/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.3838
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.3772, +66 (full position)
- Stop: 1.3863
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2178
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- 1st Level: 1.2178, +0 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2153
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
USD/CAD - Short trade closed (+135 pips)
Open Short: USD/CAD @ 1.2015
Stop level: 1.2125-30 region
Target level: 1.1870
Closed: 1.1880 (+135 pips)
Close to target
AUD/USD - Long trade closed (+0 pips)
Open Long: AUD/USD @ 0.7162
Stop level: 0.7050
Target level: 0.7280
Closed: 0.7162 (+0 pips)
That's +201 pips in one day from called trades, and doesn't count the level breaks sent out early this morning that would have netted 100s more during the London session.
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Forex Update - Mon 05Jan09 - London Session
London Session
After what looked like a quiet start, the London session became a place to make some cash, which we managed in the Live Room. One or two guys made even more as they took a long USD/CHF trade. The dollar looked strong this morning. The news that Obama may be giving some US$310 bln in tax cuts, which is part of a US$775 bln stimulous package, saw the dollar become attractive. This level of input to the US economy could, and probably would see the US recover quicker than other world economies.
EUR/USD got hammered. Battered. A -350 pip fall was a lovely trade, with the marketbytes level call broken early on its fall at 1.3838. It continued down to the 1.3580 area.
GBP/USD didn't do so bad. About a -35 pip fall towards the 1.4510 level was probably down to the UK construction PMI figure, which came in at a weaker than expected 29.3 for December, down from a 31.8 figure for November.
The yen pairs showed reaction to €uro weakness and US dollar strength. USD/JPY leapt about +140 pips towards 93.40/50 zone, whilst the EUR/JPY fell back a similar amount, down -120 pips into the 126.90/95 zone.
Nice trading, all the same.
After what looked like a quiet start, the London session became a place to make some cash, which we managed in the Live Room. One or two guys made even more as they took a long USD/CHF trade. The dollar looked strong this morning. The news that Obama may be giving some US$310 bln in tax cuts, which is part of a US$775 bln stimulous package, saw the dollar become attractive. This level of input to the US economy could, and probably would see the US recover quicker than other world economies.
EUR/USD got hammered. Battered. A -350 pip fall was a lovely trade, with the marketbytes level call broken early on its fall at 1.3838. It continued down to the 1.3580 area.
GBP/USD didn't do so bad. About a -35 pip fall towards the 1.4510 level was probably down to the UK construction PMI figure, which came in at a weaker than expected 29.3 for December, down from a 31.8 figure for November.
The yen pairs showed reaction to €uro weakness and US dollar strength. USD/JPY leapt about +140 pips towards 93.40/50 zone, whilst the EUR/JPY fell back a similar amount, down -120 pips into the 126.90/95 zone.
Nice trading, all the same.
Forex Update - Mon 05Jan09 - Asian Session
Asia Session
We think the stockmarkets are having some positive action due to the US Presidency change, with Obama bringing in some of his own policies, which are expected to be positive.
Forex trading is picking up volume again today, with normality returning after the Festive holiday season.
EUR/USD jumped, peaking at 1.3941 before falling a full cent to 1.3841, then levelled off around the 1.3890 level towards the end of the Asian session.
EUR/JPY also rose, with a high around 128.55 before falling back to around 127.35, then pulling up again to 127.90 at the end of the session.
Note that Euro Zone GDP is due later this week, on Thursday, so be ready for some decetn action then. But be careful.
USD/JPY didn't do much today during the Asian session, staying around the 91.90 level, channeling along in a 20-25 pip range.
AUD did well, up to a 3-month high against USD, opened up 20 pips at 0.7115, then ran up to a high of 0.7163, then pulled back to 0.7140 as the Asian session closed.
We think the stockmarkets are having some positive action due to the US Presidency change, with Obama bringing in some of his own policies, which are expected to be positive.
Forex trading is picking up volume again today, with normality returning after the Festive holiday season.
EUR/USD jumped, peaking at 1.3941 before falling a full cent to 1.3841, then levelled off around the 1.3890 level towards the end of the Asian session.
EUR/JPY also rose, with a high around 128.55 before falling back to around 127.35, then pulling up again to 127.90 at the end of the session.
Note that Euro Zone GDP is due later this week, on Thursday, so be ready for some decetn action then. But be careful.
USD/JPY didn't do much today during the Asian session, staying around the 91.90 level, channeling along in a 20-25 pip range.
AUD did well, up to a 3-month high against USD, opened up 20 pips at 0.7115, then ran up to a high of 0.7163, then pulled back to 0.7140 as the Asian session closed.
Friday, 2 January 2009
Forex Update - Friday 02Jan08 - London Session
London Session
It was a fairly active session today despite volume still being then. The stock markets were doing well all around the globe as well, being up some 2% so far in Europe. This despite economic data released being fairly poor, with Eurozone PMI manufacturing down to 33.9 in December, down from 34.5, which was worse than expected.
EUR/USD was up, though, ignoring all that, and fighting back from the fall last night. It was trading near 1.3930, up 30 pips by the time New York was getting ready for kick off. The 1.3880 level looks like the short-term support level, with a break of this seeing more downside. A break of 1.38 would see some volatile trading.
The yen wasn't as busy. USD/JPY was fairly even during the session and stayed just above the 91.00 level. This looks a strong support. A break of 91.50 on the upside would be seen as a break.
EUR/JPY was up about 20 pips during the session, hovering at the 127.00 level.
USD/CAD fell over -70 pips towards the 1.2190 level, even with the price of the black stuff pulling back. Oil was just under the US$42 bbl level, but there was feeling that the jump on Wednesday was a bit much for one day. We see the US dollar gaining more, and a break of the 1.2280/90 level woudl see more upside.
It was a fairly active session today despite volume still being then. The stock markets were doing well all around the globe as well, being up some 2% so far in Europe. This despite economic data released being fairly poor, with Eurozone PMI manufacturing down to 33.9 in December, down from 34.5, which was worse than expected.
EUR/USD was up, though, ignoring all that, and fighting back from the fall last night. It was trading near 1.3930, up 30 pips by the time New York was getting ready for kick off. The 1.3880 level looks like the short-term support level, with a break of this seeing more downside. A break of 1.38 would see some volatile trading.
The yen wasn't as busy. USD/JPY was fairly even during the session and stayed just above the 91.00 level. This looks a strong support. A break of 91.50 on the upside would be seen as a break.
EUR/JPY was up about 20 pips during the session, hovering at the 127.00 level.
USD/CAD fell over -70 pips towards the 1.2190 level, even with the price of the black stuff pulling back. Oil was just under the US$42 bbl level, but there was feeling that the jump on Wednesday was a bit much for one day. We see the US dollar gaining more, and a break of the 1.2280/90 level woudl see more upside.
Forex Update - Fri 02Jan09 - Asia Session
Asia Session
Welcome to 2009!
The New Year kicked off in the Far East with trading aimed at weakening the Euro. The upcoming PMI manufacturing data is expected to show Europe is suffering somewhat, and that the recession deepens. Not a good celebration for 10 years of the Euro currency, and also that Slovakia joined the ranks of the Euro today, making it the 16th member.
The EUR/USD kicked off around the 1.4000, then ran to 1.4027 before the big drop occurred, with the pair falling 180 pips from there to a 1.3850 low. The PMI data will be released in stages over 10mins this morning from France, Germany and then Euro Zone, starting with the French at 08:50 Lodnon time. Poor news and further interest rate cuts are expected.
GBP opened up a little, then dropped from its 1.4764 high to near the 1.4615 area. as sellers swooped in to take advantage of the higher levels. EUR/GBP fell from 0.9427 from a high of 0.9590 during the Asian session.
USD/JPY pushed higher from around 90.62 to up near 91.17 as the US Dollar opened the year with some stregnth.
Other Dollar pairs saw the Aussie fall from 0.7040 to 0.6940 and the USD/CHF lifting from 1.0623 to just over 1.0770.
We feel the dollar strength will weaken, though, as interst rates at 0% to 0.25% don't attract investors.
Welcome to 2009!
The New Year kicked off in the Far East with trading aimed at weakening the Euro. The upcoming PMI manufacturing data is expected to show Europe is suffering somewhat, and that the recession deepens. Not a good celebration for 10 years of the Euro currency, and also that Slovakia joined the ranks of the Euro today, making it the 16th member.
The EUR/USD kicked off around the 1.4000, then ran to 1.4027 before the big drop occurred, with the pair falling 180 pips from there to a 1.3850 low. The PMI data will be released in stages over 10mins this morning from France, Germany and then Euro Zone, starting with the French at 08:50 Lodnon time. Poor news and further interest rate cuts are expected.
GBP opened up a little, then dropped from its 1.4764 high to near the 1.4615 area. as sellers swooped in to take advantage of the higher levels. EUR/GBP fell from 0.9427 from a high of 0.9590 during the Asian session.
USD/JPY pushed higher from around 90.62 to up near 91.17 as the US Dollar opened the year with some stregnth.
Other Dollar pairs saw the Aussie fall from 0.7040 to 0.6940 and the USD/CHF lifting from 1.0623 to just over 1.0770.
We feel the dollar strength will weaken, though, as interst rates at 0% to 0.25% don't attract investors.
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