The FTSE closed down over 85 points at 3,830.09 today, whilst the FTSE 250 closed down nearly 75 points at 6,049.14, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down over 11 points at 1,708.37.
Over the pond, by the time London stock market closed the DJI was down nearly 60 points at 7,124, whilst the S&P500 was down nearly 10 points at 743, and the Nasdaq down 5 points at 1,386. News that the US government would be raising its stake in Citigroup to 36% sent some shockwaves around Wall Street.
Here in London Lloyds Banking Group said they'd be making a loss next year. The major UK banks all fell 17% to 22%.
Tullow Oil are looking for partners in Uganda. But Xstrata may struggle to get its $5.85 bln rights issue away, as shareholders may boycott it, and will be voting against the plans on Monday.
Betting Group William Hill announced plans of a £350m rights issue after faoiling to refinance its debt. It scrapped its final dividend as well, which was expected.
Friday, 27 February 2009
Forex Live Room Update - Fri 27Feb09
Forex Live Room Roundup - 27th Feb 2009
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins.
- No Intra-day trade calls.
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4230
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4196, +34 pips (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 1.4190, +40 pips (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4255
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
AUD/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6430
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6423, +7 pips (full position)
- Stop: 0.6455
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins.
- No Intra-day trade calls.
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4230
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4196, +34 pips (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 1.4190, +40 pips (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4255
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
AUD/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6430
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6423, +7 pips (full position)
- Stop: 0.6455
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Forex Market Update - London Session - Fri 27Feb09
Forex this morning in London saw some risk aversion across the board, really. The stock markets were down, as mentioned above, and the US dollar was far more attractive to investors.
The Euro zone data wasn't good. The unemployment rate was up more than expected for January, reaching a 2-year high of 8.2%, worse than the 8.1% for December. Consumer prices slowed to 1.1% for Januray, whichw as well below the ECB target of 2.0%.
EUR/USD was down about -40 pips around the 1.2660 level as we approached the New York open. The 1.2630/20 lows reached overnight will continue to be support, but a break could see a fall to the 1.2550/00 level next.
On to the Yen. USD/JPY was down -30 pips to 97.50, whilst EUR/JPY was hit harder, down some -80 pips to the 123.50 area. Some long awaited profit taking on USD/JPY seems to be causing this pulle back. It's been quite a run.
USD/CAD was up some +60 pips to break the 1.2600 level.
As New York comes closer, we will be hearing some fairly important economic data that will affect the markets. The 2nd cut on US Q4 GDP is expected to show a downward revision to -5.4% from -3.8%, confirming that the doom and gloom is not only continuing, but worse than hoped. News from Canada due shortly at 1.30pm UK time could see USD/CAD move further, especially if the figure comes in below the anticipated -5.1B decline for Q4. Also, Chicago PMI is due at 2.45pm UK time, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator at 2.55pm UK time. Watch closely.
The Euro zone data wasn't good. The unemployment rate was up more than expected for January, reaching a 2-year high of 8.2%, worse than the 8.1% for December. Consumer prices slowed to 1.1% for Januray, whichw as well below the ECB target of 2.0%.
EUR/USD was down about -40 pips around the 1.2660 level as we approached the New York open. The 1.2630/20 lows reached overnight will continue to be support, but a break could see a fall to the 1.2550/00 level next.
On to the Yen. USD/JPY was down -30 pips to 97.50, whilst EUR/JPY was hit harder, down some -80 pips to the 123.50 area. Some long awaited profit taking on USD/JPY seems to be causing this pulle back. It's been quite a run.
USD/CAD was up some +60 pips to break the 1.2600 level.
As New York comes closer, we will be hearing some fairly important economic data that will affect the markets. The 2nd cut on US Q4 GDP is expected to show a downward revision to -5.4% from -3.8%, confirming that the doom and gloom is not only continuing, but worse than hoped. News from Canada due shortly at 1.30pm UK time could see USD/CAD move further, especially if the figure comes in below the anticipated -5.1B decline for Q4. Also, Chicago PMI is due at 2.45pm UK time, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator at 2.55pm UK time. Watch closely.
Thursday, 26 February 2009
Forex Live Room Update - Thurs 26Feb09
Live Room Roundup - 26th Feb 2009
Not such a great day today, but still finished up.
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 loss.
- No Intra-day trade calls.
USD/CHF – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1660
- Trade: Break of support level
- Closed: 1.1626, +34 pips (full position)
- Stop: 1.1687
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4172
- Trade: Break of support level
- Closed: 1.4198, -26 pips (full position)
- Stop: 1.4198
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Not such a great day today, but still finished up.
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 1 win, 1 loss.
- No Intra-day trade calls.
USD/CHF – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.1660
- Trade: Break of support level
- Closed: 1.1626, +34 pips (full position)
- Stop: 1.1687
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4172
- Trade: Break of support level
- Closed: 1.4198, -26 pips (full position)
- Stop: 1.4198
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Wednesday, 25 February 2009
Live Room Round-up - Wed 25Feb09
Live Room Roundup - Wed 25 Feb 2009
It was a slow start this morning, with internet problems causing access to the Live Room hard for our top trader. No official Live Room calls were made during the session, but two intra-day trades were made.
London Session
- No Live Room trade calls today.
- 2 Intra-day trade calls; 2 winners, with as many as +233 pips on one of the trades.
Intra-day trades
GBP/JPY - Short trade closed (overall +190pips, for the records +95pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 140.48
Stop level: 141.90
Target level: 135.60
Closed: 138.15 (+233 pips)
1/2 closed at 139.01 (+147) and 1/2 at 138.15 (+233), overall +190 average. Traded half size so +95 pips (for the records)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+33 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/JPY @ 123.85
Stop level: 124.65
Target level: 121.40
Closed: 123.52 (+33 pips)
Come and trade with the Pros. E-mail Alerts & SMS Alerts for intra-day trades.
www.marketbytes.com
It was a slow start this morning, with internet problems causing access to the Live Room hard for our top trader. No official Live Room calls were made during the session, but two intra-day trades were made.
London Session
- No Live Room trade calls today.
- 2 Intra-day trade calls; 2 winners, with as many as +233 pips on one of the trades.
Intra-day trades
GBP/JPY - Short trade closed (overall +190pips, for the records +95pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 140.48
Stop level: 141.90
Target level: 135.60
Closed: 138.15 (+233 pips)
1/2 closed at 139.01 (+147) and 1/2 at 138.15 (+233), overall +190 average. Traded half size so +95 pips (for the records)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+33 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/JPY @ 123.85
Stop level: 124.65
Target level: 121.40
Closed: 123.52 (+33 pips)
Come and trade with the Pros. E-mail Alerts & SMS Alerts for intra-day trades.
www.marketbytes.com
Forex market Update - London - Wed 26Feb09
Forex Market Update - London Session
Internet problems gave us an unusual start, with the Room kicking off properly late, but just in time for some short trades and the USD became popular after the decent US stock market session yesterday. European markets were up 0.5% to 1%, but this still seemed rather lack-lustre. We expect the US to pull back on opening, as Obama's promises to use the 'full force of government' will see some risk averse investment.
News from mainland Europe were the comments from some EU officials who said they are 'concerned' with the recent weakness in £STG, and how its negative implications will affect the Euro Zone and the €uro as a result. They said in a report that the recent fall of the Pound raises concerns about the actal state of the UK economy. Whilst we can see that, we can also point out that the US economy isn't doing too good, and Spain and others in Europe are struggling, and Eastern Europe hasn't even really shown much reaction to all this so far. But that's by the by.
Anyway, after a false 20 pip edge up, Cable took a plunge. Our beraish stance on Cable was right, with that 1.46 level reached a 2nd time before a heavy drop. A couple of decent short trades, which are still running, are doing well.
GBP/USD was down some -175 pips and sitting near 1.4380/90 as we approach the New York session.
EUR/USD was down some -100 pips to the 1.2760/70 area, with the 1.2760 area looking fairly important as a support level, with the 100 MA nearby. We could see a break of 1.2700, then further to fall from there if we break below.
JPY got stronger, and has been edging up on the quiet. It had been weaker, but the Japanese trade figures were better than expected, which helped the Yen. The overall bias for USD/JPY still looks higher, though, and we think that a break of 96.30/00 would see a further +100 from there.
Internet problems gave us an unusual start, with the Room kicking off properly late, but just in time for some short trades and the USD became popular after the decent US stock market session yesterday. European markets were up 0.5% to 1%, but this still seemed rather lack-lustre. We expect the US to pull back on opening, as Obama's promises to use the 'full force of government' will see some risk averse investment.
News from mainland Europe were the comments from some EU officials who said they are 'concerned' with the recent weakness in £STG, and how its negative implications will affect the Euro Zone and the €uro as a result. They said in a report that the recent fall of the Pound raises concerns about the actal state of the UK economy. Whilst we can see that, we can also point out that the US economy isn't doing too good, and Spain and others in Europe are struggling, and Eastern Europe hasn't even really shown much reaction to all this so far. But that's by the by.
Anyway, after a false 20 pip edge up, Cable took a plunge. Our beraish stance on Cable was right, with that 1.46 level reached a 2nd time before a heavy drop. A couple of decent short trades, which are still running, are doing well.
GBP/USD was down some -175 pips and sitting near 1.4380/90 as we approach the New York session.
EUR/USD was down some -100 pips to the 1.2760/70 area, with the 1.2760 area looking fairly important as a support level, with the 100 MA nearby. We could see a break of 1.2700, then further to fall from there if we break below.
JPY got stronger, and has been edging up on the quiet. It had been weaker, but the Japanese trade figures were better than expected, which helped the Yen. The overall bias for USD/JPY still looks higher, though, and we think that a break of 96.30/00 would see a further +100 from there.
Tuesday, 24 February 2009
Forex Market Update - London Tues24Feb09
Forex Market Update - London 24Feb09
It was fairly mixed this morning, with eyes and ears looking for the Fed Res statement in a while in the US. Bernanke will will give his semi-annual tetimony to Congress later today. It will be a very bleak assessment, we are sure, but much of the bad news is probably already in the prices. But he will be availble for Qs and As afterw ards, so that could be interesting, possibly causing some spikes and volatile price action.
Here in London and in Euro Zone, the various stock markets were all down, albeit not as much as the 3.7% drop over the pond last night. As mentioined in yesterday's summary, US market future prices were at their worst levels for 12 years. Some trough feeders will be around, but can the bottom be called? the US has always had higher P/E ratios, and investors are looking at fundamentals more now. The DJI is at just above 7k, whcih is now at 50% of its peak at over 14,000 some 18 months ago. This assessment from Ben Bernanke is not expected to show any help to the wall Street.
During the London Session the pairs were mixed.
EUR/USD pushed up some +30 pips and was recently sitting near 1.2770/80, before New York kicks off. Boycey and one or two others took a EUR-USD trade in the Live Room this morning on a level break, netting a nice gain.
USD/JPY was up +50 pips, carrying on from gains in the Asian session, and was at around the 95.80/90 area. Continued deterioration of the Japanese economy is now taking its toll on the 'safe haven' stance of the Yen. There were trades taken on the JPY in the room this moving, with a long trade taken on published level break being closed in two tranches.
EUR/JPY was up some +100 pips, sitting up at 122.50, with trades taken in the Live Room on the €uro being closed in two tranches, with one at +9 pips and the other up at +34, being closed too early at 1.2200.
USD-CHF was a good call in the Live Room, with a nice short trade proving to be succesful for Daps, adding to his 5 positive calls made yesterday.
Happy Trading.
It was fairly mixed this morning, with eyes and ears looking for the Fed Res statement in a while in the US. Bernanke will will give his semi-annual tetimony to Congress later today. It will be a very bleak assessment, we are sure, but much of the bad news is probably already in the prices. But he will be availble for Qs and As afterw ards, so that could be interesting, possibly causing some spikes and volatile price action.
Here in London and in Euro Zone, the various stock markets were all down, albeit not as much as the 3.7% drop over the pond last night. As mentioined in yesterday's summary, US market future prices were at their worst levels for 12 years. Some trough feeders will be around, but can the bottom be called? the US has always had higher P/E ratios, and investors are looking at fundamentals more now. The DJI is at just above 7k, whcih is now at 50% of its peak at over 14,000 some 18 months ago. This assessment from Ben Bernanke is not expected to show any help to the wall Street.
During the London Session the pairs were mixed.
EUR/USD pushed up some +30 pips and was recently sitting near 1.2770/80, before New York kicks off. Boycey and one or two others took a EUR-USD trade in the Live Room this morning on a level break, netting a nice gain.
USD/JPY was up +50 pips, carrying on from gains in the Asian session, and was at around the 95.80/90 area. Continued deterioration of the Japanese economy is now taking its toll on the 'safe haven' stance of the Yen. There were trades taken on the JPY in the room this moving, with a long trade taken on published level break being closed in two tranches.
EUR/JPY was up some +100 pips, sitting up at 122.50, with trades taken in the Live Room on the €uro being closed in two tranches, with one at +9 pips and the other up at +34, being closed too early at 1.2200.
USD-CHF was a good call in the Live Room, with a nice short trade proving to be succesful for Daps, adding to his 5 positive calls made yesterday.
Happy Trading.
Monday, 23 February 2009
Forex Live Room & Intra-Day Update - Mon 23Feb09
Forex Live Room & Intra-Day Update - Mon 23Feb09
As usual, we had some good trades today. It was a little worrying when hotcomm failed during the Live Room session, but we were in two trades at that point, which were in positive territory. SMS and e-mail alerts helped show where profit was to be taken, just in case you hadn't closed in profit already.
Live Room Trades - +38 & +37 pips.
Intra-day Trades - +48, +74 and +14 pips.
We call our trades here at Market Bytes Forex Live Room. We stand by our performance.
Come and join the Pros. www.marketbytes.com
As usual, we had some good trades today. It was a little worrying when hotcomm failed during the Live Room session, but we were in two trades at that point, which were in positive territory. SMS and e-mail alerts helped show where profit was to be taken, just in case you hadn't closed in profit already.
Live Room Trades - +38 & +37 pips.
Intra-day Trades - +48, +74 and +14 pips.
We call our trades here at Market Bytes Forex Live Room. We stand by our performance.
Come and join the Pros. www.marketbytes.com
Forex Live Room Trades - London Session - Mon 23Feb09
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins.
- 1 Intra-day trade call; 1 win.
GBP/USD – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4542
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- Closed: 1.4580, +38 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4517
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2415
- Trade: Break of support level
- Closed: 1.2378, +37 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2440
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+48 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/USD @ 1.2918
Stop level: 1.2970
Target level: 1.2740
Closed: 1.2870 (+48 pips)
3 Trades so far today. Watch for those SMS messages and e-mails. www.marketbytes.com
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins.
- 1 Intra-day trade call; 1 win.
GBP/USD – Long Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4542
- Trade: Break of resistance level
- Closed: 1.4580, +38 (full position)
- Stop: 1.4517
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
USD/CAD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.2415
- Trade: Break of support level
- Closed: 1.2378, +37 (full position)
- Stop: 1.2440
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
EUR/USD - Short trade closed (+48 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/USD @ 1.2918
Stop level: 1.2970
Target level: 1.2740
Closed: 1.2870 (+48 pips)
3 Trades so far today. Watch for those SMS messages and e-mails. www.marketbytes.com
Forex Market Update - Monday 23Feb09
Pound Sterling Reaches the 1.46 Level As Forecasted - But Turns Back on Peak.
Last week in our forecasts we mentioned that the gap after the G7 would close and that we could see a rteurn to the 1.4602 level before a breaish pull back. Well that's what happened this morning.
Whlst we had a technical problem when the US-based hotcomm softrware failed, we did see the levels reached before the interruption. One we retraced from that level we saw it become the expected turn. The US dollar soon recovered, with news that the US government will take an even larger stake in a major financial institution than had been rumoured helping the green back.
EUR/USD fell some -120 pips to just above the 1.28 mark. The pair came close to taking out the 1.30 resistance level, which does look to be a big medium term pivot point now. The 1.2765 low from last night looks to be a big support now. With weakness, a break under 1.27 could be seen as well.
USD/JPY was up about +130 pips, taking out the January 94.65 barrier during this session. A daily close above 95.00 should see further advancing of the greenback this coming week, but do be careful for any hammer candle 'stoploss-checkers'.
Wall Street futures continue to show signs of investmnet returning, with the latest government financial input news helping here. Well, for the moment, anyway. London doesn't look as positive as we type, and we expect a close down over here today. Bailing out these massive institutions could give the wrong impression, really - almost rewarding failure. The reaction to the banks' bosses and staff bonuses has already been met with some serious comments, as we are aware. But don't worry about the market reactions as the USD is still seen as risk averse, don't forget. We still remain bearish for Cable and the €uro.
This afernoon we see the Canadian retail sales figures for December, with a mark down expected. A fall of -2.7% for December, after a -2.4% month in November is expected. Any worse than that would see some short-term strength in USD-CAD, with that all-important 1.25 barrier coming in to play.
Last week in our forecasts we mentioned that the gap after the G7 would close and that we could see a rteurn to the 1.4602 level before a breaish pull back. Well that's what happened this morning.
Whlst we had a technical problem when the US-based hotcomm softrware failed, we did see the levels reached before the interruption. One we retraced from that level we saw it become the expected turn. The US dollar soon recovered, with news that the US government will take an even larger stake in a major financial institution than had been rumoured helping the green back.
EUR/USD fell some -120 pips to just above the 1.28 mark. The pair came close to taking out the 1.30 resistance level, which does look to be a big medium term pivot point now. The 1.2765 low from last night looks to be a big support now. With weakness, a break under 1.27 could be seen as well.
USD/JPY was up about +130 pips, taking out the January 94.65 barrier during this session. A daily close above 95.00 should see further advancing of the greenback this coming week, but do be careful for any hammer candle 'stoploss-checkers'.
Wall Street futures continue to show signs of investmnet returning, with the latest government financial input news helping here. Well, for the moment, anyway. London doesn't look as positive as we type, and we expect a close down over here today. Bailing out these massive institutions could give the wrong impression, really - almost rewarding failure. The reaction to the banks' bosses and staff bonuses has already been met with some serious comments, as we are aware. But don't worry about the market reactions as the USD is still seen as risk averse, don't forget. We still remain bearish for Cable and the €uro.
This afernoon we see the Canadian retail sales figures for December, with a mark down expected. A fall of -2.7% for December, after a -2.4% month in November is expected. Any worse than that would see some short-term strength in USD-CAD, with that all-important 1.25 barrier coming in to play.
Friday, 20 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Friday 20Feb09
Forex Market Update - Friday 20Feb09
US dollar gains on safe-haven bid as stock markets tumble
The FTSE clsoed down over 129 points today at 3,889, whilst the FTSE closed down 209 points at 6,000, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 34 points at 1,735.
Over the pond Wall Street fell on opening, whilst the shiny stuff was shosing that Gold futures are at US$1,000 oz for April. Moving as we predicted months ago, slowly edging up. It will be a good year for gold.
The price of the blck stuff was still sub US$40 bbl, around the $39.40 bbl level.
On to Forex, where the US dollar rose this afternoon and looks like finsihing the week up 1% on where it started. After this morning's fall the dollar picked up as the risk-averse feeling returned. Worries about the world's banks and the global economy in general saw the USD become the safe-haven again.
The US dollar has benefited from extreme risk aversion in recent months, with investors looking for the relative safety in dollar-denominated assets, such as US 'T' Bonds/Treasuries.
This rather subdued risk appetite returning this afternoon also kept the Japanese Yen in fashion as well, although we believe the Yen is still too strong and has some falling to do, almost certainly against the US greenback.
This said, though, the USD was last little changed at around JPY 94.30, whilst the €uro was down 0.3% at JPY 119.15.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said today that a deterioration in corporate profits had now gathered pace and that economic conditions were deteriorating rapidly. Join the club, came to mind, there.
The USD did briefly erase losses against the JPY after a government report showed a rise in US consumer prices for January, which was in-line with expectations, but any good feeling on the news was soon forgotten and the pair settled again around where they started.
The €uro pulled back after strong gains in the previous session as concerns over the damage to Euro Zone banks from a several recession in Eastern Europe persisted. This all created a knock-on effect to £STG as well. This could continue for some time, we feel.
The €uro was down 0.2% this afternoon, at around $1.2640, although it had recovered from session lows on faint hopes of a solution to alleviate the Euro Zone's problems and strife. It hit a nearly 3-month low at $1.2511 on Wednesday, don't forget.
Germany's foreign minister said today that a process had begun to consider how financially strong Euro Zone nations could help weaker members of the currency union, though it was too early to say what measures might be taken. Errr, Germany taking over Europe might be the answer they want. Only joking. WE can add that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is also vice-chancellor in the ruling coalition, made his comments after a report by Germany's Der Spiegel magazine stated that the German finance ministry was looking at possible rescue measures for other Euro Zone states. He said the article didn't really represent the facts, and was inaccurate.
Have a good weekend, guys.
US dollar gains on safe-haven bid as stock markets tumble
The FTSE clsoed down over 129 points today at 3,889, whilst the FTSE closed down 209 points at 6,000, and for those that are interested the FTSE Small Caps closed down 34 points at 1,735.
Over the pond Wall Street fell on opening, whilst the shiny stuff was shosing that Gold futures are at US$1,000 oz for April. Moving as we predicted months ago, slowly edging up. It will be a good year for gold.
The price of the blck stuff was still sub US$40 bbl, around the $39.40 bbl level.
On to Forex, where the US dollar rose this afternoon and looks like finsihing the week up 1% on where it started. After this morning's fall the dollar picked up as the risk-averse feeling returned. Worries about the world's banks and the global economy in general saw the USD become the safe-haven again.
The US dollar has benefited from extreme risk aversion in recent months, with investors looking for the relative safety in dollar-denominated assets, such as US 'T' Bonds/Treasuries.
This rather subdued risk appetite returning this afternoon also kept the Japanese Yen in fashion as well, although we believe the Yen is still too strong and has some falling to do, almost certainly against the US greenback.
This said, though, the USD was last little changed at around JPY 94.30, whilst the €uro was down 0.3% at JPY 119.15.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said today that a deterioration in corporate profits had now gathered pace and that economic conditions were deteriorating rapidly. Join the club, came to mind, there.
The USD did briefly erase losses against the JPY after a government report showed a rise in US consumer prices for January, which was in-line with expectations, but any good feeling on the news was soon forgotten and the pair settled again around where they started.
The €uro pulled back after strong gains in the previous session as concerns over the damage to Euro Zone banks from a several recession in Eastern Europe persisted. This all created a knock-on effect to £STG as well. This could continue for some time, we feel.
The €uro was down 0.2% this afternoon, at around $1.2640, although it had recovered from session lows on faint hopes of a solution to alleviate the Euro Zone's problems and strife. It hit a nearly 3-month low at $1.2511 on Wednesday, don't forget.
Germany's foreign minister said today that a process had begun to consider how financially strong Euro Zone nations could help weaker members of the currency union, though it was too early to say what measures might be taken. Errr, Germany taking over Europe might be the answer they want. Only joking. WE can add that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is also vice-chancellor in the ruling coalition, made his comments after a report by Germany's Der Spiegel magazine stated that the German finance ministry was looking at possible rescue measures for other Euro Zone states. He said the article didn't really represent the facts, and was inaccurate.
Have a good weekend, guys.
Forex Live Room Update - Friday 20Feb09
Forex Live Room Update - Friday 20Feb09
Whilst the FTSE was down some 2% this morning, the Forex pairs were showing us signs of profit opportunities.
A short Cable (£STG) was closed too early at break even by Daps, but most just held a few more minutes to see some positive movement, with +20, +18 and +17 being taken in the room. With the subsequent break back above the 1.4205 level, a break above the 1.4245 highs was the long trade to take before the next resistance level break.
USD-CAD was taken short on the break of 1.2604, which coupled a set level and pennant lower break. This was slow but there were numerous opportunities for a small profit before it has settled back on the level again as I type.
EUR-USD long trade was taken in the room but closed at break even due boredom. Shame, though as there is still some possible drive in this one.
USD-JPY was not taken in the room, but the level break was the perfect opportunity. As no set orders were in play, it was missed. We still believe a break down could be on the cards here, but wait for the set up again.
USD-CHF was also taken in the room, with two levels broken. A nice profit for the guys who took that.
Watch for the intra-day call alerts.
Have a good weekend.
Whilst the FTSE was down some 2% this morning, the Forex pairs were showing us signs of profit opportunities.
A short Cable (£STG) was closed too early at break even by Daps, but most just held a few more minutes to see some positive movement, with +20, +18 and +17 being taken in the room. With the subsequent break back above the 1.4205 level, a break above the 1.4245 highs was the long trade to take before the next resistance level break.
USD-CAD was taken short on the break of 1.2604, which coupled a set level and pennant lower break. This was slow but there were numerous opportunities for a small profit before it has settled back on the level again as I type.
EUR-USD long trade was taken in the room but closed at break even due boredom. Shame, though as there is still some possible drive in this one.
USD-JPY was not taken in the room, but the level break was the perfect opportunity. As no set orders were in play, it was missed. We still believe a break down could be on the cards here, but wait for the set up again.
USD-CHF was also taken in the room, with two levels broken. A nice profit for the guys who took that.
Watch for the intra-day call alerts.
Have a good weekend.
Thursday, 19 February 2009
Forex Market Update - PM Thurs 19Feb09
Forex Market Update - New York Session - Thurs 19Feb09
The New York Session saw the USD recover from the hits taken this morning. The US stock markets fell by -1%, seeing the DJI hit a low of 7,465. Take note - or let me refresh your memory - that about 18 months ago the DJI went through 14,000.
US Bonds were also sold as producer prices rose higher than expected at +0.8% for January, after falling -1.9% in December. With deflation risks now obviously no longer in the forefront, US 10-year yields leapt some 10bps to 2.85%.
US economic data continued to disappoint as well. Initial jobless claims jumped 627K this last week, which matches the previous week's increase. This is actually a fresh cycle high, too. This gives the prospect of a possible -700K non-farm payroll (NFP) decline quite reachable. Other fairly notable data to digest was the Philly Fed manufacturing index for February, which was absolutely decimated to -41.3, down from -24.3. Add this to the poor NY Empire results, and we can easily conclude a rather bleak ISM print figure will be on the cards.
Forex.
EUR/USD fell about -50 pips during the New York session, and settled around the 1.3640 level, a decent support.
USD/JPY jumped some +60 pips despite the pull back in the stock markets. This shows that the USD is still considered a safe haven.
£STG. Cable, after such a promising push this morning, fell some -120 pips after clsing the weekend's 'G7' gap this morning and trying for 1.4450, but failed.
Oh, and of course there was the Bank of England (BOE) member Gieve that made some fairly heavy comments that the risk of a UK depression is not trivial. Errr, state the obvious. Still, no-one likes to be told.
US Dollar strength was also there with the Loonie. USD/CAD rallied over +100 pips to 1.2570/80, despite the 12% leap in the price of the black stuff to near US$39 bbl.
The New York Session saw the USD recover from the hits taken this morning. The US stock markets fell by -1%, seeing the DJI hit a low of 7,465. Take note - or let me refresh your memory - that about 18 months ago the DJI went through 14,000.
US Bonds were also sold as producer prices rose higher than expected at +0.8% for January, after falling -1.9% in December. With deflation risks now obviously no longer in the forefront, US 10-year yields leapt some 10bps to 2.85%.
US economic data continued to disappoint as well. Initial jobless claims jumped 627K this last week, which matches the previous week's increase. This is actually a fresh cycle high, too. This gives the prospect of a possible -700K non-farm payroll (NFP) decline quite reachable. Other fairly notable data to digest was the Philly Fed manufacturing index for February, which was absolutely decimated to -41.3, down from -24.3. Add this to the poor NY Empire results, and we can easily conclude a rather bleak ISM print figure will be on the cards.
Forex.
EUR/USD fell about -50 pips during the New York session, and settled around the 1.3640 level, a decent support.
USD/JPY jumped some +60 pips despite the pull back in the stock markets. This shows that the USD is still considered a safe haven.
£STG. Cable, after such a promising push this morning, fell some -120 pips after clsing the weekend's 'G7' gap this morning and trying for 1.4450, but failed.
Oh, and of course there was the Bank of England (BOE) member Gieve that made some fairly heavy comments that the risk of a UK depression is not trivial. Errr, state the obvious. Still, no-one likes to be told.
US Dollar strength was also there with the Loonie. USD/CAD rallied over +100 pips to 1.2570/80, despite the 12% leap in the price of the black stuff to near US$39 bbl.
Forex Market Update - London Session - Thurs 19Feb09
Forex Market Update - AM Thurs 19Feb09
Risk returned this morning, with £STG and the €uro doing well against both the USD & JPY. News reports said that Germany is prepared to take over the world... no, sorry, errr, I mean Germany is prepared to assist with the current looming financial meltdown in the Euro Zone region, which seems to have boosted European confidence somewhat. The European markets seem to be ok this morning, althought FTSE was sub 4k again, but not drastcically. US futures show that the US could open up, but we'll have to see if that is the case, or whether it holds.
EUR/USD was up some +95 pips during the session, settling to near the 1.27 level as we approach lunchtime.
EUR/JPY was up about +100 pips to the 119.00 area. Two decent Live Room trades taken by Boycey on this one.
USD/JPY didn't do much, and was almost unchanged around the 93.60/70 zone. Other pairs were active, but not very volatile.
£STG. Cable was up about +50 pips towards the 1.44 area, which gave a few of the guys in the Live Room some healthy trades. That gap from the wekend that we were all talking about was finally closed, netting some +50 % +75 pips trades in the Live Room.
USD/CAD fell some -30 pips into 1.25, partly due to oil rallying above US$36 bbl.
We expect a fight back from the USD this afternoon, as the £STG has now closed that gap from the weekend and we sense some weakness. There is some serious US economic data coming, though, so we will have to wait and see. We don't expect the €uro to go even higher, but the market is crazy at the moment.
The shiny stuff, Gold, is only down 5 bucks an ounce to US$980 oz, thus suggesting that risk aversion is still the flavour at the moment. We see some dollar strngth returning today. Data coming from the US includes the US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. If the data is poor then expect to see risk aversion return.
Risk returned this morning, with £STG and the €uro doing well against both the USD & JPY. News reports said that Germany is prepared to take over the world... no, sorry, errr, I mean Germany is prepared to assist with the current looming financial meltdown in the Euro Zone region, which seems to have boosted European confidence somewhat. The European markets seem to be ok this morning, althought FTSE was sub 4k again, but not drastcically. US futures show that the US could open up, but we'll have to see if that is the case, or whether it holds.
EUR/USD was up some +95 pips during the session, settling to near the 1.27 level as we approach lunchtime.
EUR/JPY was up about +100 pips to the 119.00 area. Two decent Live Room trades taken by Boycey on this one.
USD/JPY didn't do much, and was almost unchanged around the 93.60/70 zone. Other pairs were active, but not very volatile.
£STG. Cable was up about +50 pips towards the 1.44 area, which gave a few of the guys in the Live Room some healthy trades. That gap from the wekend that we were all talking about was finally closed, netting some +50 % +75 pips trades in the Live Room.
USD/CAD fell some -30 pips into 1.25, partly due to oil rallying above US$36 bbl.
We expect a fight back from the USD this afternoon, as the £STG has now closed that gap from the weekend and we sense some weakness. There is some serious US economic data coming, though, so we will have to wait and see. We don't expect the €uro to go even higher, but the market is crazy at the moment.
The shiny stuff, Gold, is only down 5 bucks an ounce to US$980 oz, thus suggesting that risk aversion is still the flavour at the moment. We see some dollar strngth returning today. Data coming from the US includes the US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. If the data is poor then expect to see risk aversion return.
Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Live Room Trades - Wed 18Feb09
Live Room Trades - Wed 18Feb09
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins.
AUD/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6412
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6376, +36 (full position)
- Stop: 0.6440
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4185
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4155, +30 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 1.4111, +74 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4210
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come & Join the Pros. www.marketbytes.com
London Session
- 2 Live Room trade calls today; 2 wins.
AUD/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6412
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6376, +36 (full position)
- Stop: 0.6440
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
GBP/USD – Short Call
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 1.4185
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 1.4155, +30 (1/2 position)
- 2nd Level: 1.4111, +74 (1/2 position)
- Stop: 1.4210
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Come & Join the Pros. www.marketbytes.com
Forex Market Update - Morning Wed 18Feb09
Forex Market Update - Wed 18Feb09
£STG fell back this morning agsinst the US Dollar as concerns over the UK finance sector continued.
£STG fell to a session low against the USD and €uro on concerns over the state of UK public financing, whilst investors awaited the Bank of England minutes to be released. Traders cited an unsourced report in The Daily Telegraph newspaper of the risks to Britain's AAA credit rating posed by the scale of public money needed for all the bank bailouts and guarantees. Quite concerning. This just fuelled the already nervous climate after recent downgrades or threats of downgrades by rating agencies on a number of European countries. The current market is rather sensitive to concerns about rising sovereign debt levels.
Mind you, such a downgrade is still seen as quite unlikely, but traders and analysts said it was enough to take the shine off the Pound.
By 9am the pound had fallen 0.6% to US$1.4160, whilst the €uro recovered ground against the Pound from the focused selling yesterday, and was up 0.6% at 88.88p.
Across the board the trading was fairly cautious as investors awaited the release of the Bank of England minutes of its February interest rate decision. Bank of England policymakers have been following the US on a fairly aggressive path of monetary easing, with UK interst rates now at a record low of 1%.
£STG fell back this morning agsinst the US Dollar as concerns over the UK finance sector continued.
£STG fell to a session low against the USD and €uro on concerns over the state of UK public financing, whilst investors awaited the Bank of England minutes to be released. Traders cited an unsourced report in The Daily Telegraph newspaper of the risks to Britain's AAA credit rating posed by the scale of public money needed for all the bank bailouts and guarantees. Quite concerning. This just fuelled the already nervous climate after recent downgrades or threats of downgrades by rating agencies on a number of European countries. The current market is rather sensitive to concerns about rising sovereign debt levels.
Mind you, such a downgrade is still seen as quite unlikely, but traders and analysts said it was enough to take the shine off the Pound.
By 9am the pound had fallen 0.6% to US$1.4160, whilst the €uro recovered ground against the Pound from the focused selling yesterday, and was up 0.6% at 88.88p.
Across the board the trading was fairly cautious as investors awaited the release of the Bank of England minutes of its February interest rate decision. Bank of England policymakers have been following the US on a fairly aggressive path of monetary easing, with UK interst rates now at a record low of 1%.
Tuesday, 17 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Tues 17Feb09
Forex Market Update - Tues 17Feb09
This morning the US dollar strengthened early doors, only for the Pound to take a batetring after the 9.30 figures. The poull back surprised us all, as to how far it went. We had expected a recoivery again, with the dollar maintaining its stregnth. The Yen had also shown some strength early doors, as risk averse returned again. The USD & JPY both being seen as safe havens in times of woe.
As the session moved on, the €uro fell to session lows versus the US dollar today after Standard & Poor's said it may review ratings on banks in emerging Europe as the credit crisis worsens.
The €uro traded as low as $1.2574, which was the lowest level since early December. The €uro was recently down 1.5% against the USD & £STG.
S&P said that the growing difficulties faced by Western banks in supplying their subsidiaries in emerging Europe with funding could prompt an overall ratings review for the region's banks. This news from S&P followed a similar announcement from Moody's Investors Service earlier that it may downgrade European banks with that are heavily exposed to Eastern Europe. Eateern Europe has, until now, been far less affected by the global economic situation. Worse to come there, then.
This morning the US dollar strengthened early doors, only for the Pound to take a batetring after the 9.30 figures. The poull back surprised us all, as to how far it went. We had expected a recoivery again, with the dollar maintaining its stregnth. The Yen had also shown some strength early doors, as risk averse returned again. The USD & JPY both being seen as safe havens in times of woe.
As the session moved on, the €uro fell to session lows versus the US dollar today after Standard & Poor's said it may review ratings on banks in emerging Europe as the credit crisis worsens.
The €uro traded as low as $1.2574, which was the lowest level since early December. The €uro was recently down 1.5% against the USD & £STG.
S&P said that the growing difficulties faced by Western banks in supplying their subsidiaries in emerging Europe with funding could prompt an overall ratings review for the region's banks. This news from S&P followed a similar announcement from Moody's Investors Service earlier that it may downgrade European banks with that are heavily exposed to Eastern Europe. Eateern Europe has, until now, been far less affected by the global economic situation. Worse to come there, then.
Monday, 16 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Mon 16Feb09
Forex Market Update - Monday 16Feb09
US Dollar pushes up as Risk Aversion Returns After G7 Meeting
Concern over a sharp slowdown in Japanese growth, disappointment over the G7 finance ministers meeting at the weekend and continued concern about major banks helped to boost risk aversion and leave the dollar well supported in Europe Monday.
With US markets closed today it wasn't a fantastic trading morning, which was expected. But as the day wore on, £STG had the worst day, falling by more than 2 cents at one stage, with the state of the UK banks once again became a focus of investor concern.
The final passage of the US$787 bln stimulus package through the Senate late Friday, and expectations that it will be signed off by President Barack Obama later Monday, failed to inject any enthusiasm into financial markets.
Japan jumoed in with its own comments - reminding the world of the risks to growth. You don't say? Earlier this morning it reported that GDP contracted 3.3% in the Q4 of 2008, which was even more than the 3.2% decline that had been forecast.
For the JPY, this proved to be positive rather than negative news as a rise in risk aversion as well as expectations of increased repatriation of overseas holdings by Japanese corporations supported the currency.
The stock markets remained in negative territory, with Japan's Nikkei following the US DJIA 1.0% loss on Friday with a 0.4% fall of its own.
In Europe, most markets were off about 0.5%. Both the US and Canadian markets are shut for public holidays today, as we mentioned earlier.
Analysts said market sentiment wasn't helped by the failure of finance ministers from the G7 group of industrial nations to come up with anything more concrete on currencies after their weekend meeting in Rome. Maybe the Milan derby was more attractive?
About the only development to affect the markets was the softer line the US took with China over the issue of currency manipulation. This may help avert a trade war between the US & China, whilst helps the dollar.
The €uro came under selling pressure as a high-yielder, helped by reports that Ireland is more at risk from debt default.
But, it was the Pound that had the worst day, with investors more than concerned over the UK bank situation. Lloyds Banking Group fell again on opening, but clawed most back by lunchtime. Fears that Lloyds could be nationalised, together with reports that Moody's Investors Service had downgraded the bank's rating, drove its share price down sharply.
Although a short squeeze helped to lift the currency from a low of $1.4154, it still attracted only limited support.
About an hour ago the pairs were like this:
The USD was down to about JPY91.71, down from JPY91.91 at the tail end of the US session on Friday.
The €uro was lower, sitting at $1.2797, down from $1.2897.
The €uro was at JPY117.40, down from JPY118.50.
The USD was at CHF1.1605, up from CHF1.1593.
£STG was down to $1.4290, off from the big resistance level of 1.4400.
US Dollar pushes up as Risk Aversion Returns After G7 Meeting
Concern over a sharp slowdown in Japanese growth, disappointment over the G7 finance ministers meeting at the weekend and continued concern about major banks helped to boost risk aversion and leave the dollar well supported in Europe Monday.
With US markets closed today it wasn't a fantastic trading morning, which was expected. But as the day wore on, £STG had the worst day, falling by more than 2 cents at one stage, with the state of the UK banks once again became a focus of investor concern.
The final passage of the US$787 bln stimulus package through the Senate late Friday, and expectations that it will be signed off by President Barack Obama later Monday, failed to inject any enthusiasm into financial markets.
Japan jumoed in with its own comments - reminding the world of the risks to growth. You don't say? Earlier this morning it reported that GDP contracted 3.3% in the Q4 of 2008, which was even more than the 3.2% decline that had been forecast.
For the JPY, this proved to be positive rather than negative news as a rise in risk aversion as well as expectations of increased repatriation of overseas holdings by Japanese corporations supported the currency.
The stock markets remained in negative territory, with Japan's Nikkei following the US DJIA 1.0% loss on Friday with a 0.4% fall of its own.
In Europe, most markets were off about 0.5%. Both the US and Canadian markets are shut for public holidays today, as we mentioned earlier.
Analysts said market sentiment wasn't helped by the failure of finance ministers from the G7 group of industrial nations to come up with anything more concrete on currencies after their weekend meeting in Rome. Maybe the Milan derby was more attractive?
About the only development to affect the markets was the softer line the US took with China over the issue of currency manipulation. This may help avert a trade war between the US & China, whilst helps the dollar.
The €uro came under selling pressure as a high-yielder, helped by reports that Ireland is more at risk from debt default.
But, it was the Pound that had the worst day, with investors more than concerned over the UK bank situation. Lloyds Banking Group fell again on opening, but clawed most back by lunchtime. Fears that Lloyds could be nationalised, together with reports that Moody's Investors Service had downgraded the bank's rating, drove its share price down sharply.
Although a short squeeze helped to lift the currency from a low of $1.4154, it still attracted only limited support.
About an hour ago the pairs were like this:
The USD was down to about JPY91.71, down from JPY91.91 at the tail end of the US session on Friday.
The €uro was lower, sitting at $1.2797, down from $1.2897.
The €uro was at JPY117.40, down from JPY118.50.
The USD was at CHF1.1605, up from CHF1.1593.
£STG was down to $1.4290, off from the big resistance level of 1.4400.
Friday, 13 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Friday 13th February 2009
FOREX Market Update Friday 13Feb09
US Dollar rises against Yen. G7 meeting on Global Crisis Looms.
The USD climbed against the JPY today, boosted by some significant bets that the G7 Finance Chiefs will point to the Japanese currency for excessive strength at this weekend's meeting.
The green back was also helped by some new optimism about a US government program to subsidise mortgages for homeowners. Reposessions (foreclosures) have reached very high levels, so the government is stepping in. This news, announced last night, helped the stock markets and commodoties alike. Wall Street opened well, but did pull back. Gap traders note.
With the G7 meeting in Rome looming, investors are looking that way and feel that the Yen may be subject of topic as being far too strong. With this in mind the Yen is being dumped, we feel, with a decent run with £STG this morning giving MarketBytes Live Room guys a decent long trade.
Let us remind ourselves that earlier in the week the Japanese Finance Minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, said Japan will 'act decisively against excessive currency moves', but did suggest that singling out the strong JPY at this G7 meeting wouldn't really work whilst the current damage from the global economic crisis is spreading.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair 'what the hell shall I do?' Darling, said earlier today that he believed any discussion of foreign exchange would only be in 'general terms'. Probably a guess. No-one listened, and the Yen was being sold. The JPY has fallen so far this year, now down nearly 1.5%. But let us not forget that last year the Yen actually rallied nearly 19%.
By this afternoon the USD was up about 1% on the JPY at 91.80.
The €uro was up 1.3% at 118.35.
There was also talk on the boards that some analysts believe that the bleak Euro zone GDP figures had also raised concerns that G7 leaders may bring up the £STG's recent weakness against the €uro. There is a lot of bad news still in the Pound, we feel.
In fact, Pound Sterling rallied, with a decent run against both the USD & JPY, but did pull back again after falls in the UK banking stocks, with Lloyds Banking Group (Lloyds TSB, Halifax & Bank of Scotland, in case anyone has forgotten) announced a very heavy loss related to its recently acquired HBOS subsidiary.
Lloyds said HBOS had lost about £8.5 bln last year, which promptly sent Lloyds shares falling like sa stone, dragging other UK banks' share prices with it. The FTSE went in to the red.
£STG was at about US$1.4430, up 1.2%.
The €uro rose about 0.2% against the USD to around $1.2890, which was actually against the poor data from the euro zone economy, whcih showed a deeper recession than expected.
We feel that it will be the outcome of the G7 that will affect which way the stock markets go, and it will be the stock markets that then give the Forex market direction as well. Investors tend to sell the USD & JPY ('safe currencies') with increased optimism for global economic prospects. Also, Obama's mortgage help announcement for home owners also gave the markets a boost.
US Dollar rises against Yen. G7 meeting on Global Crisis Looms.
The USD climbed against the JPY today, boosted by some significant bets that the G7 Finance Chiefs will point to the Japanese currency for excessive strength at this weekend's meeting.
The green back was also helped by some new optimism about a US government program to subsidise mortgages for homeowners. Reposessions (foreclosures) have reached very high levels, so the government is stepping in. This news, announced last night, helped the stock markets and commodoties alike. Wall Street opened well, but did pull back. Gap traders note.
With the G7 meeting in Rome looming, investors are looking that way and feel that the Yen may be subject of topic as being far too strong. With this in mind the Yen is being dumped, we feel, with a decent run with £STG this morning giving MarketBytes Live Room guys a decent long trade.
Let us remind ourselves that earlier in the week the Japanese Finance Minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, said Japan will 'act decisively against excessive currency moves', but did suggest that singling out the strong JPY at this G7 meeting wouldn't really work whilst the current damage from the global economic crisis is spreading.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair 'what the hell shall I do?' Darling, said earlier today that he believed any discussion of foreign exchange would only be in 'general terms'. Probably a guess. No-one listened, and the Yen was being sold. The JPY has fallen so far this year, now down nearly 1.5%. But let us not forget that last year the Yen actually rallied nearly 19%.
By this afternoon the USD was up about 1% on the JPY at 91.80.
The €uro was up 1.3% at 118.35.
There was also talk on the boards that some analysts believe that the bleak Euro zone GDP figures had also raised concerns that G7 leaders may bring up the £STG's recent weakness against the €uro. There is a lot of bad news still in the Pound, we feel.
In fact, Pound Sterling rallied, with a decent run against both the USD & JPY, but did pull back again after falls in the UK banking stocks, with Lloyds Banking Group (Lloyds TSB, Halifax & Bank of Scotland, in case anyone has forgotten) announced a very heavy loss related to its recently acquired HBOS subsidiary.
Lloyds said HBOS had lost about £8.5 bln last year, which promptly sent Lloyds shares falling like sa stone, dragging other UK banks' share prices with it. The FTSE went in to the red.
£STG was at about US$1.4430, up 1.2%.
The €uro rose about 0.2% against the USD to around $1.2890, which was actually against the poor data from the euro zone economy, whcih showed a deeper recession than expected.
We feel that it will be the outcome of the G7 that will affect which way the stock markets go, and it will be the stock markets that then give the Forex market direction as well. Investors tend to sell the USD & JPY ('safe currencies') with increased optimism for global economic prospects. Also, Obama's mortgage help announcement for home owners also gave the markets a boost.
Forex Live Room Summary - Friday 13Feb09
It wasn't a Friday the 13th to complain about in the Live Room this morning. Far from it, in fact.
After a slow start, and after Head Trader Daps had to leave to go to the hospital for an appointment that couldn't get moved, things picked up.
Boycey took the floor,talking through 4 trades:
GBP-JPY (long), GBP-USD (long x 2), and USD-CAD (short).
First was a GBP-USD long from the break of the 1.4313 level, which was closed in stages up to 1.4460. (max +47)
Then there was a GBP-JPY long on the break of the previous high at 132.00 level, which was closed (far too early) by 132.28. (max +28)
Then we had the USD-CAD short on a 1.2345 level break which was closed in stages down to a healthy 1.2290. Nice trade. (max +55)
At about the same time there was the 2nd Cable trade, with a GBP-USD long on the break of 1.4507, which was closed at 1.4600, a very nice trade. (max +93)
Add the pips up, guys. A nice Friday morning.
Join the Pros at www.marketbytes.com
After a slow start, and after Head Trader Daps had to leave to go to the hospital for an appointment that couldn't get moved, things picked up.
Boycey took the floor,talking through 4 trades:
GBP-JPY (long), GBP-USD (long x 2), and USD-CAD (short).
First was a GBP-USD long from the break of the 1.4313 level, which was closed in stages up to 1.4460. (max +47)
Then there was a GBP-JPY long on the break of the previous high at 132.00 level, which was closed (far too early) by 132.28. (max +28)
Then we had the USD-CAD short on a 1.2345 level break which was closed in stages down to a healthy 1.2290. Nice trade. (max +55)
At about the same time there was the 2nd Cable trade, with a GBP-USD long on the break of 1.4507, which was closed at 1.4600, a very nice trade. (max +93)
Add the pips up, guys. A nice Friday morning.
Join the Pros at www.marketbytes.com
Thursday, 12 February 2009
Forex Market Report - London Session - Thurs 12Feb09
£ Sterling Falls Again on anticipated UK Economy Issues
Sterling weakened accross the board this morning, providing some decent trading opportunities which were exploited in the Live Room. Concerns seem to be afoot after the Bank of England said it was 'ready to take unconventional monetary easing measures' to revive the ailing UK economy.
This was taken to mean further cuts in interest rates, down towards the zero level, as well as other significant cash inputs. The lowering of interest rates will further erode the Pound's yield and interest rate advantage over the US dollar, and will also help the €uro become more attractive as ECB rates are still at 2%.
Playing safe seemed to be the order again this morning, with risk aversion also adding weight to the £STG.
On to the stock markets, where both European and Asian markets pulled back after some fairly downbeat feeling after the lack of detail about US planned economy bail-outs, and in particular the proposed US$2 trillion bank rescue plan, which may take longer than hoped to finalise.
Investors remained cautious, boosting perceived safer currencies such as the Japanese yen, despite U.S. congressional negotiators reaching a deal on Wednesday on $789 billion in emergency spending and tax cuts aimed at pulling the economy out of a deepening recession.
The BoE report put £STG under pressure and although EUR/STG fell back below 90p last night, this morning it is back under some pressure as a poor reception to the US bail-out plans seem to have caused a move towards risk aversion.
An hour or so after London stock market opened the €uro was up nealry 1% on STG at 90.4p. The £STG was down 1.3% against the US dollar at $1.4195. This put STG back to its week's lows again. We think that in the longer term STG may benefit from the low interest rates, as these initiatives will help pave the way for eventual recovery. Those currencies currently suffering will reap the rewards later this year, we think.
Sterling weakened accross the board this morning, providing some decent trading opportunities which were exploited in the Live Room. Concerns seem to be afoot after the Bank of England said it was 'ready to take unconventional monetary easing measures' to revive the ailing UK economy.
This was taken to mean further cuts in interest rates, down towards the zero level, as well as other significant cash inputs. The lowering of interest rates will further erode the Pound's yield and interest rate advantage over the US dollar, and will also help the €uro become more attractive as ECB rates are still at 2%.
Playing safe seemed to be the order again this morning, with risk aversion also adding weight to the £STG.
On to the stock markets, where both European and Asian markets pulled back after some fairly downbeat feeling after the lack of detail about US planned economy bail-outs, and in particular the proposed US$2 trillion bank rescue plan, which may take longer than hoped to finalise.
Investors remained cautious, boosting perceived safer currencies such as the Japanese yen, despite U.S. congressional negotiators reaching a deal on Wednesday on $789 billion in emergency spending and tax cuts aimed at pulling the economy out of a deepening recession.
The BoE report put £STG under pressure and although EUR/STG fell back below 90p last night, this morning it is back under some pressure as a poor reception to the US bail-out plans seem to have caused a move towards risk aversion.
An hour or so after London stock market opened the €uro was up nealry 1% on STG at 90.4p. The £STG was down 1.3% against the US dollar at $1.4195. This put STG back to its week's lows again. We think that in the longer term STG may benefit from the low interest rates, as these initiatives will help pave the way for eventual recovery. Those currencies currently suffering will reap the rewards later this year, we think.
Wednesday, 11 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Wed 11Feb09
London Session
£ Sterling Falls after Weak Job Data and BoE Report
£STG was down against other major currencies this morning, with the expectation of some poor jobs data weighing with some concern on the Bank of England's Inflation Report later this morning.
The UK pound was also under pressure on renewed concerns about the UK banking sector after the US latest bank bailout package announced yesterday disappointed investors.
This morning, before 9am, £STG was down 0.5% against the USD at $1.4442.
The €uro was up nearly 1% against £STG 89.68p.
£STG was down over 1% against the Japanese Yen at JPY129.82.
yesterday over the pond the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said that the US government was considering ways to set up a 'public/private fund' that could absorb up to US$1 trillion in bad assets from various banks' books, thus creating a massive 'Crap Bank'. The US government would obviously be backing the Crap Bank, guranteeing loans etc. However, full details of the plan were fairly short, thus prompting concerns that the whole thing could take quite a long time. The whole negative feeling flew to this side of the pond to give the UK banks a headache, becoming less attractive all of a sudden.
This morning we get the BoE Inflation Report, which is expected to show downgraded projections for GDP and inflation. This will pave the way for more monetary easing. But with rates already at a record low 1%, there is much debate whether the BoE will lower rates toward zero, as in the US, or rather embark on unconventional measures such as buying assets directly. The BoE will want to drive the longer-dated borrowing costs lower by delivering the central message that rates will remain low for a considerable time. This will be possible by showing that inflation may undershoot its 2-year target with current interest rates.
Data later today is also expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3% for December, up from 6.1 percent in November, meaning a rise of 90k in numbers. Higher unemployment will possibly push the BoE into lowering rates again, even if it isn't this month.
£ Sterling Falls after Weak Job Data and BoE Report
£STG was down against other major currencies this morning, with the expectation of some poor jobs data weighing with some concern on the Bank of England's Inflation Report later this morning.
The UK pound was also under pressure on renewed concerns about the UK banking sector after the US latest bank bailout package announced yesterday disappointed investors.
This morning, before 9am, £STG was down 0.5% against the USD at $1.4442.
The €uro was up nearly 1% against £STG 89.68p.
£STG was down over 1% against the Japanese Yen at JPY129.82.
yesterday over the pond the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said that the US government was considering ways to set up a 'public/private fund' that could absorb up to US$1 trillion in bad assets from various banks' books, thus creating a massive 'Crap Bank'. The US government would obviously be backing the Crap Bank, guranteeing loans etc. However, full details of the plan were fairly short, thus prompting concerns that the whole thing could take quite a long time. The whole negative feeling flew to this side of the pond to give the UK banks a headache, becoming less attractive all of a sudden.
This morning we get the BoE Inflation Report, which is expected to show downgraded projections for GDP and inflation. This will pave the way for more monetary easing. But with rates already at a record low 1%, there is much debate whether the BoE will lower rates toward zero, as in the US, or rather embark on unconventional measures such as buying assets directly. The BoE will want to drive the longer-dated borrowing costs lower by delivering the central message that rates will remain low for a considerable time. This will be possible by showing that inflation may undershoot its 2-year target with current interest rates.
Data later today is also expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3% for December, up from 6.1 percent in November, meaning a rise of 90k in numbers. Higher unemployment will possibly push the BoE into lowering rates again, even if it isn't this month.
Tuesday, 10 February 2009
Forex Live Room Trades - Tues 10Feb09
London Session
- 1 Live Room trade call today; 1 win.
- 6 Intra-day trade calls; 5 wins, 1 breakeven.
Live Room Call
AUD/USD – Short Call (+28 pips)
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6668
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6640, +28 (full position)
- Stop: 0.6693
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
USD/CHF - Short trade closed (+0 pips)
Opened Short: USD/CHF @ 1.1675
Stop level: 1.1775
Target level: 1.1510
Closed: 1.1675 (+0 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+92 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/JPY @ 118.04
Stop level: 119.30
Target level: 115.30
Closed: 117.12 (+92 pips)
The pair made a low of 116.62 before retracing.
GBP/JPY - Short trade closed (+140 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/JPY @ 136.32
Stop level: 137.50
Target level: 132.00
Closed: 134.92 (+140 pips)
The pair made a low of 134.49. Trade closed on retracement.
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+82 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4690
Stop level: 1.4755
Target level: 1.4480
Closed: 1.4608 (+82 pips)
The pair made a low of 1.4577. The trade was closed on retracement.
GBP/JPY - Short trade closed (+75 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/JPY @ 132.74
Stop level: 134.85
Target level: 128.30
Closed: 131.99 (+75 pips)
The pair made a low of 131.62. The trade was closed on retracement.
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+33 pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 90.85
Stop level: 91.45
Target level: 89.30
Closed: 90.52 (+33 pips)
The pair made a low of 90.29. The trade was closed on retracement.
Come and Join the REAL Pros. We don't sit on the fence - we tell you when we trade - as it happens. www.marketbytes.com.
- 1 Live Room trade call today; 1 win.
- 6 Intra-day trade calls; 5 wins, 1 breakeven.
Live Room Call
AUD/USD – Short Call (+28 pips)
- Live Room Call: Entry on the break of 0.6668
- Trade: Break of support level
- 1st Level: 0.6640, +28 (full position)
- Stop: 0.6693
- (Allow few pips for slippage on entry/exit levels)
Intra-day trades
USD/CHF - Short trade closed (+0 pips)
Opened Short: USD/CHF @ 1.1675
Stop level: 1.1775
Target level: 1.1510
Closed: 1.1675 (+0 pips)
EUR/JPY - Short trade closed (+92 pips)
Opened Short: EUR/JPY @ 118.04
Stop level: 119.30
Target level: 115.30
Closed: 117.12 (+92 pips)
The pair made a low of 116.62 before retracing.
GBP/JPY - Short trade closed (+140 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/JPY @ 136.32
Stop level: 137.50
Target level: 132.00
Closed: 134.92 (+140 pips)
The pair made a low of 134.49. Trade closed on retracement.
GBP/USD - Short trade closed (+82 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/USD @ 1.4690
Stop level: 1.4755
Target level: 1.4480
Closed: 1.4608 (+82 pips)
The pair made a low of 1.4577. The trade was closed on retracement.
GBP/JPY - Short trade closed (+75 pips)
Opened Short: GBP/JPY @ 132.74
Stop level: 134.85
Target level: 128.30
Closed: 131.99 (+75 pips)
The pair made a low of 131.62. The trade was closed on retracement.
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+33 pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 90.85
Stop level: 91.45
Target level: 89.30
Closed: 90.52 (+33 pips)
The pair made a low of 90.29. The trade was closed on retracement.
Come and Join the REAL Pros. We don't sit on the fence - we tell you when we trade - as it happens. www.marketbytes.com.
Forex Market Update - Tues 10Feb09
Pound Sterling Falls Back After Recent Drive Upwards
£STG weakened against the US dollar today, with investors looking again for the supposed safe haven of the green back. The US government's plans to boost the economy was now in the spotlight.
US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, will be outlining its plan just about now, with the expectation that it will be using public and private funds to take US$500 bln of bad assets off stricken banks' balance sheets and dumping them all in to one new bad bank.
New President Barack Obama presented his case for an US$800 bln economic stimulus package, which was directed at the recession-weary American public yesterday, as he urged Congress to approve a final bill before the recession worsened even more.
The bill is expected to be passed by the Senate later today. But uncertainty about the timing and detail of both plans kept investors on edge, pulling buyers towards the US dollar and Japanese Yen, considered safe havens, which saw £STG being deserted somewhat.
The global stock markets pulled back as well. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell, with the banks taking a hit. But we feel that if US Treasury Secretary Geithner's testimony being quite upbeat and market-friendly, the the stock markets will turn up, and this will give strength to the £STG again, which we feel can rise again to the $1.4975 high again, then breaking the all-important $1.50 level, and maybe drive to something like $1.53. There is a lot of bad news already built in to Sterling. The pull back today could also be attributed to some profit taking after its recent run, let's not forget.
The Pound was down about 1% today, sitting recently at the $1.4745 area, up from the session low of $1.4708. Note that it hit a 3-week high against the dollar yesterday at $1.4984.
EUR-GBP - The €uro strengthened over 1% to 88.37p. It had hit a 2-month low at 86.40p during Asian trading after a report in Japan's Nikkei business daily that Russia would negotiate with European and other foreign banks to postpone repayment of up to US$400 bln of private sector debt. But this soon reversed after the head of Russia's regional banks association, Anatoly Aksakov, said the report was just rumour and had no foundation.
UK economic data was mixed with housing figures showing the pace of price falls had quickened, while retail sales surprised to the upside and Britain's goods trade deficit narrowed. Some good news, for a change. The likelihood of further monetary easing will also be on investors' minds with the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report due tomorrow. It is expected to show the economy shrinking fast this year, with inflation undershooting the target, thus opening the way for further rate cuts. Zero here we come...?
£STG weakened against the US dollar today, with investors looking again for the supposed safe haven of the green back. The US government's plans to boost the economy was now in the spotlight.
US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, will be outlining its plan just about now, with the expectation that it will be using public and private funds to take US$500 bln of bad assets off stricken banks' balance sheets and dumping them all in to one new bad bank.
New President Barack Obama presented his case for an US$800 bln economic stimulus package, which was directed at the recession-weary American public yesterday, as he urged Congress to approve a final bill before the recession worsened even more.
The bill is expected to be passed by the Senate later today. But uncertainty about the timing and detail of both plans kept investors on edge, pulling buyers towards the US dollar and Japanese Yen, considered safe havens, which saw £STG being deserted somewhat.
The global stock markets pulled back as well. The UK's FTSE 100 index fell, with the banks taking a hit. But we feel that if US Treasury Secretary Geithner's testimony being quite upbeat and market-friendly, the the stock markets will turn up, and this will give strength to the £STG again, which we feel can rise again to the $1.4975 high again, then breaking the all-important $1.50 level, and maybe drive to something like $1.53. There is a lot of bad news already built in to Sterling. The pull back today could also be attributed to some profit taking after its recent run, let's not forget.
The Pound was down about 1% today, sitting recently at the $1.4745 area, up from the session low of $1.4708. Note that it hit a 3-week high against the dollar yesterday at $1.4984.
EUR-GBP - The €uro strengthened over 1% to 88.37p. It had hit a 2-month low at 86.40p during Asian trading after a report in Japan's Nikkei business daily that Russia would negotiate with European and other foreign banks to postpone repayment of up to US$400 bln of private sector debt. But this soon reversed after the head of Russia's regional banks association, Anatoly Aksakov, said the report was just rumour and had no foundation.
UK economic data was mixed with housing figures showing the pace of price falls had quickened, while retail sales surprised to the upside and Britain's goods trade deficit narrowed. Some good news, for a change. The likelihood of further monetary easing will also be on investors' minds with the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report due tomorrow. It is expected to show the economy shrinking fast this year, with inflation undershooting the target, thus opening the way for further rate cuts. Zero here we come...?
Monday, 9 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Mon 09Feb09
Pound at 3-wk high against US Dollar
£STG hit its highest in three weeks against the US dollar today, pushing to near the big $1.50 level, reaching $1.4977 at one stage. News and figures from Barclays Bank, which were stronger than expected, helped inevstors' confidence. But let us not all get too bullish, as there is still a very hard time ahead. A survey of UK firms confirmed they are bracing for worsening credit conditions, this despite the government banking bail-out bucket.
Shares in Barclays jumped some 10% after it reported a profit of £6.1 bln for last year. Whilst this was down 14% on last year, mainly due to the £5.4 bln write-downs, it was still ahead of analyst forecasts.
£STG ran some more once the $1.49 level was broken, many trades automated.
Reflecting broader €uro strength versus the USD, the €uro reversed early losses and rose 0.3 percent against STG to 87.63p, compared to a 2-month low last Friday of 86.61p.
Back to that survey we mentioned, which was carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, which showed nearly half of British companies had trouble getting access to new finance at the end of last year. The surevey also showed that the same proportion expected conditions to get worse in the next few months as the credit crunch tightens its grip. The BoE cut interest rates to 1% last week to try and help the economy, but it will be a hard slog. The BoE's quarterly inflation report is due later this week, which is expected to show the economy shrinking fast this year, as well as inflation undershooting the target. This will open the door for further rate cuts as well as other measures like 'quantitative easing', which is where central banks flood the banking system with money to keep official rates low.
£STG hit its highest in three weeks against the US dollar today, pushing to near the big $1.50 level, reaching $1.4977 at one stage. News and figures from Barclays Bank, which were stronger than expected, helped inevstors' confidence. But let us not all get too bullish, as there is still a very hard time ahead. A survey of UK firms confirmed they are bracing for worsening credit conditions, this despite the government banking bail-out bucket.
Shares in Barclays jumped some 10% after it reported a profit of £6.1 bln for last year. Whilst this was down 14% on last year, mainly due to the £5.4 bln write-downs, it was still ahead of analyst forecasts.
£STG ran some more once the $1.49 level was broken, many trades automated.
Reflecting broader €uro strength versus the USD, the €uro reversed early losses and rose 0.3 percent against STG to 87.63p, compared to a 2-month low last Friday of 86.61p.
Back to that survey we mentioned, which was carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, which showed nearly half of British companies had trouble getting access to new finance at the end of last year. The surevey also showed that the same proportion expected conditions to get worse in the next few months as the credit crunch tightens its grip. The BoE cut interest rates to 1% last week to try and help the economy, but it will be a hard slog. The BoE's quarterly inflation report is due later this week, which is expected to show the economy shrinking fast this year, as well as inflation undershooting the target. This will open the door for further rate cuts as well as other measures like 'quantitative easing', which is where central banks flood the banking system with money to keep official rates low.
Sunday, 8 February 2009
Intra-day Trades - Performance - 02-06Feb09
Intra-day Trades performance summary - Feb 2009 (2nd - 6th).
Total profit +345 pips.
Number of Trades: 16
Wins: 11
Losses: 3
Total Pips: +345 (in 5 trading days)
Remember - We Call Our Trades.
We tell you when we trade. We do not sit on the fence or wait for you to decide to trade on a break out. We have calculated levels, sent out in the morning, which are a mixture of many trading-related items (pivot points, Fibonacci, Elliot, Highs, Lows, Tech set ups, breaks, plus more). No-one else does this. We send you these important levels at the start of each day for all major currency pairs. We also have a 3-hour Live Room. We also send e-mail alerts throughout the day as set ups occur and we make trades. We do not sit on the fence letting you call the shots. Do you currently get that service?
www.marketbytes.com
Total profit +345 pips.
Number of Trades: 16
Wins: 11
Losses: 3
Total Pips: +345 (in 5 trading days)
Remember - We Call Our Trades.
We tell you when we trade. We do not sit on the fence or wait for you to decide to trade on a break out. We have calculated levels, sent out in the morning, which are a mixture of many trading-related items (pivot points, Fibonacci, Elliot, Highs, Lows, Tech set ups, breaks, plus more). No-one else does this. We send you these important levels at the start of each day for all major currency pairs. We also have a 3-hour Live Room. We also send e-mail alerts throughout the day as set ups occur and we make trades. We do not sit on the fence letting you call the shots. Do you currently get that service?
www.marketbytes.com
Friday, 6 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Fri 06Feb09
£STG Drives to a 2-week High - Risk Returns...?
The dollar was feeling some pressure today after the US job report was not a good one. This did give some hope of Obama's stimulous package gettig through ok, but the dollar did fall back. News that 598k jobs were lost in Jnauary was not taken well. This is the largest cut in payroll figures in some 34 years.
£STG was at a 2-week high, with news that UK borrowing costs are now at or very near a trough as interest rates are now at 1% after the 0.5% cut yesterday. Both the £STG & €uro were stronger against the USD as a more pro-risk attitude returns.
GBP-EUR. As we type the €uro was around the 87.35p level, up from an earlier 86.64p level, its worse level since December.
GBP-USD. Against the USD the £STG was up 0.8% on the day at $1.4735, which isn't too far away from an earlier 2-week high of $1.4767.
Strength against the major other currencies helped the Pound to a 7-week peak against a basket of currencies of 79.9.
The £STG has seen some help from the BoE rate cut, which shows that they are being quite proactive on getting the economy rolling again.
In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its rates unchanged at 2% this week, which has raised some concerns as to how the Euro zone will find a way to get the region out of its downturn. The €uro looks to get weaker, we feel.
It wasn't all good news in the UK as news that the biggest annual fall in UK industrial production since 1981 was taken as a realisty check. Industrial output fell by 9.4% year-on-year in December. In Q4 alone production fell 4.5%. This is very weak indeed. The GDP figure may need revising. Company liquidations are up 50% this year as well, to their highest level since 1994.
Howeverm we feel there is alot of bad news priced into the £STG, with a 23-year low against the USD last month and an almost parity agisnt the €uro last month showing the Pound to be oversold, in our opinion. There is more bad news coming from the Euro zone, we are sure of that.
Looking at the stock markets, UK and US share prices were also up some 1.7% and 2.4% today, with trading being fairly volatile all week.
The dollar was feeling some pressure today after the US job report was not a good one. This did give some hope of Obama's stimulous package gettig through ok, but the dollar did fall back. News that 598k jobs were lost in Jnauary was not taken well. This is the largest cut in payroll figures in some 34 years.
£STG was at a 2-week high, with news that UK borrowing costs are now at or very near a trough as interest rates are now at 1% after the 0.5% cut yesterday. Both the £STG & €uro were stronger against the USD as a more pro-risk attitude returns.
GBP-EUR. As we type the €uro was around the 87.35p level, up from an earlier 86.64p level, its worse level since December.
GBP-USD. Against the USD the £STG was up 0.8% on the day at $1.4735, which isn't too far away from an earlier 2-week high of $1.4767.
Strength against the major other currencies helped the Pound to a 7-week peak against a basket of currencies of 79.9.
The £STG has seen some help from the BoE rate cut, which shows that they are being quite proactive on getting the economy rolling again.
In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its rates unchanged at 2% this week, which has raised some concerns as to how the Euro zone will find a way to get the region out of its downturn. The €uro looks to get weaker, we feel.
It wasn't all good news in the UK as news that the biggest annual fall in UK industrial production since 1981 was taken as a realisty check. Industrial output fell by 9.4% year-on-year in December. In Q4 alone production fell 4.5%. This is very weak indeed. The GDP figure may need revising. Company liquidations are up 50% this year as well, to their highest level since 1994.
Howeverm we feel there is alot of bad news priced into the £STG, with a 23-year low against the USD last month and an almost parity agisnt the €uro last month showing the Pound to be oversold, in our opinion. There is more bad news coming from the Euro zone, we are sure of that.
Looking at the stock markets, UK and US share prices were also up some 1.7% and 2.4% today, with trading being fairly volatile all week.
Thursday, 5 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Thurs 05Feb09
UK Interest Rates down to 1%, Euro Zone Stay at 2%
The US Pushes Above JPY91.00. The Euro Above JPY117.0
The Japanese Yen continued to be sold this afternoon after New York opened. The Dow Jones opened fairly briskly, up nearly 50 points, and some breakouts on key levels saw the Yen being sold. Invetsors became less risk-averse and the safe haven of the Yen became less important. The US dollar and the €uro's rise continued each time the USD hit key levels such as JPY90.0, JPY90.30 and JPY90.50.
The USD moved to a 2-week high of JPY91.25, whilst the €uro hit a one-week high of JPY117.08. We expect a pull back as the session moves on.
As New York settled the €uro was at US$1.2827, up from $1.2852 last night, whilst the USD was at JPY91.09, up from JPY89.39.
The €uro was at JPY116.85, up significantly from JPY114.91.
The £STG was at $1.4666, up from $1.4455, whilst the USD was at CHF1.1655, up from CHF1.1580 last night.
The €uro had fallen to a session low earlier on after the US January jobless claims report showed a break of the 600k level, the highest since 1982 recession, whilst comments by the ECB (European Central Bank) chief confirmed the interest rate was staying at 2% in the Euro zone. German economic data wasn't good, either.
The €uro fell as low as $1.2760 and GBP0.8734 after the interest rate news. The BoE, on the other nad, moved interest rates down another 50 poiints to 1.0%.
The pound was also boosted by the first increase in UK home prices in a year. Halifax reported a 1.9% rise in January.
The US Pushes Above JPY91.00. The Euro Above JPY117.0
The Japanese Yen continued to be sold this afternoon after New York opened. The Dow Jones opened fairly briskly, up nearly 50 points, and some breakouts on key levels saw the Yen being sold. Invetsors became less risk-averse and the safe haven of the Yen became less important. The US dollar and the €uro's rise continued each time the USD hit key levels such as JPY90.0, JPY90.30 and JPY90.50.
The USD moved to a 2-week high of JPY91.25, whilst the €uro hit a one-week high of JPY117.08. We expect a pull back as the session moves on.
As New York settled the €uro was at US$1.2827, up from $1.2852 last night, whilst the USD was at JPY91.09, up from JPY89.39.
The €uro was at JPY116.85, up significantly from JPY114.91.
The £STG was at $1.4666, up from $1.4455, whilst the USD was at CHF1.1655, up from CHF1.1580 last night.
The €uro had fallen to a session low earlier on after the US January jobless claims report showed a break of the 600k level, the highest since 1982 recession, whilst comments by the ECB (European Central Bank) chief confirmed the interest rate was staying at 2% in the Euro zone. German economic data wasn't good, either.
The €uro fell as low as $1.2760 and GBP0.8734 after the interest rate news. The BoE, on the other nad, moved interest rates down another 50 poiints to 1.0%.
The pound was also boosted by the first increase in UK home prices in a year. Halifax reported a 1.9% rise in January.
Wednesday, 4 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Wed 04Feb09
This morning, Sterling extended gains against the euro and Britain's top stock index rose further on Wednesday after data showed an improvement in UK service sector activity.
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/Market purchasing managers' index rose to 42.5 in January from 40.2 in the previous month, and higher than market forecasts of 40.4.
The €uro fell to a session low of 89.70 pence from around 89.85 pence before the data .
Britain's FTSE 100 extended gains after the data, up 0.6 percent at 4189.93 points. "We're still in deep contraction territory in terms of historical activity levels but at least we're seeing a small rebound which is slightly encouraging," said Brown Brothers Harriman senior FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman.
The UK service sector appears to outperform the euro zone index, thus helping £STG gain some on the back of that, although this doesn't change the overall picture for the UK. The BoE is still likely to cut interest rates from 1.5% again tomorrow
Then this aftrenoon, the €uro gained ground against the US dollar after the non-mfg ISM. After retreating in overnight trading on increased risk aversion, the €uro regained ground in mid-morning trading on Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected report on the US service sector.
The €uro pushed to a high of early $1.30 after news that Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index for January was 42.9 from 40.1 in December and stronger than the expected 39.0.
It was still lower on the session as a whole. The €uro had dropped to a sessional low at $1.2813 in earlier trading as stock market futures came under pressure.
A stronger performance in stock markets as US trading progressed also contributed to a reduction in risk aversion and buoyed the €uro.
The US dollar rallied against the JPY after the data release, although its net change from Tuesday was small.
Today the €uro was at $1.2913, down from $1.3039 last night, whilst the US dollar was at JPY89.54, up from Y89.30. The €uro was at JPY115.64, up from JPYY116.45. The £STG was at US$1.4551, up from $1.4458, and the US dollar was at CHF1.1568, up from CHF1.1428 last night.
The US dollar showed only a muted reaction to earlier news that private sector jobs fell 522k in the US in January, according to a revamped national employment report published Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.
It also didn't move much after the news that the US Treasury will sell $67 bln of new securities in its quarterly refunding next week to refund $36.3 bln in maturing issues and raise about $30.7 bln.
Stock markets continued to affect Forex markets, with the fluctuations causing similar behaviour with the currency crosses.
The €uro was also pressured in earlier trading by news that Fitch Ratings lowered its currency ratings on Russia one notch closer to junk territory. Fitch said ailing commodities prices and Forex reserves will make it more difficult for corporations, as well as the government, to refinance their foreign debt. The financial system in Western Europe is more leveraged to Eastern Europe than to the rest of the world, in fact. Liquidity being fairly thin hasn't helped, causing moves to be sharper. The JPY seems to have done well after the Russian downgrade.
In European trading, a late withdrawal by Japanese investors from high-risk currencies also lifted the US dollar against most majors in Europe. However, a continued positive performance by European equity markets suggested some risk appetite remains following better liquidity and housing market news out of the US on Tuesday.
The Canadian dollar was higher in choppy trading today after they opened, with movements in the Loonie currency continuing to reflect general market attitudes toward risk. The currency has drawn some support from stronger commodity prices and a more constructive tone for stock prices and futures so far today, at the time of writing. The Canadian dollar is trading at C$1.2233, down from C$1.2307 last night.
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/Market purchasing managers' index rose to 42.5 in January from 40.2 in the previous month, and higher than market forecasts of 40.4.
The €uro fell to a session low of 89.70 pence from around 89.85 pence before the data .
Britain's FTSE 100 extended gains after the data, up 0.6 percent at 4189.93 points. "We're still in deep contraction territory in terms of historical activity levels but at least we're seeing a small rebound which is slightly encouraging," said Brown Brothers Harriman senior FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman.
The UK service sector appears to outperform the euro zone index, thus helping £STG gain some on the back of that, although this doesn't change the overall picture for the UK. The BoE is still likely to cut interest rates from 1.5% again tomorrow
Then this aftrenoon, the €uro gained ground against the US dollar after the non-mfg ISM. After retreating in overnight trading on increased risk aversion, the €uro regained ground in mid-morning trading on Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected report on the US service sector.
The €uro pushed to a high of early $1.30 after news that Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index for January was 42.9 from 40.1 in December and stronger than the expected 39.0.
It was still lower on the session as a whole. The €uro had dropped to a sessional low at $1.2813 in earlier trading as stock market futures came under pressure.
A stronger performance in stock markets as US trading progressed also contributed to a reduction in risk aversion and buoyed the €uro.
The US dollar rallied against the JPY after the data release, although its net change from Tuesday was small.
Today the €uro was at $1.2913, down from $1.3039 last night, whilst the US dollar was at JPY89.54, up from Y89.30. The €uro was at JPY115.64, up from JPYY116.45. The £STG was at US$1.4551, up from $1.4458, and the US dollar was at CHF1.1568, up from CHF1.1428 last night.
The US dollar showed only a muted reaction to earlier news that private sector jobs fell 522k in the US in January, according to a revamped national employment report published Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.
It also didn't move much after the news that the US Treasury will sell $67 bln of new securities in its quarterly refunding next week to refund $36.3 bln in maturing issues and raise about $30.7 bln.
Stock markets continued to affect Forex markets, with the fluctuations causing similar behaviour with the currency crosses.
The €uro was also pressured in earlier trading by news that Fitch Ratings lowered its currency ratings on Russia one notch closer to junk territory. Fitch said ailing commodities prices and Forex reserves will make it more difficult for corporations, as well as the government, to refinance their foreign debt. The financial system in Western Europe is more leveraged to Eastern Europe than to the rest of the world, in fact. Liquidity being fairly thin hasn't helped, causing moves to be sharper. The JPY seems to have done well after the Russian downgrade.
In European trading, a late withdrawal by Japanese investors from high-risk currencies also lifted the US dollar against most majors in Europe. However, a continued positive performance by European equity markets suggested some risk appetite remains following better liquidity and housing market news out of the US on Tuesday.
The Canadian dollar was higher in choppy trading today after they opened, with movements in the Loonie currency continuing to reflect general market attitudes toward risk. The currency has drawn some support from stronger commodity prices and a more constructive tone for stock prices and futures so far today, at the time of writing. The Canadian dollar is trading at C$1.2233, down from C$1.2307 last night.
Tuesday, 3 February 2009
Forex Live Room Trades - Tues 03Feb09
Forex Live Room Trades. Tues 03Feb09.
Live Room Calls.
None made today. Quite a boring morning, in fact.
Intra-day Round-up.
3 trades made. 3 winning trades.
EUR/USD - Long trade closed (+115 pips)
Opened Long: EUR/USD @ 1.2897
Stop level: 1.2790
Target level: 1.3080
Closed: 1.3012 (+115 pips)
Trade closed after the pair pulled back from the high of 1.3032. Closed below the 1.3017 resistance level.
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+39 pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 89.26
Stop level: 90.20
Target level: 87.30
Closed: 88.87 (+39 pips)
The pair made a low of 88.57, the trade was closed on the pullback through the 88.80 level.
USD/CHF - Short trade closed (+136 pips)
Open Long: USD/CHF @ 1.1545
Stop level: 1.1655
Target level: 1.1311
Closed: 1.1409 (+136 pips)
Trade closed near the 1.1405 support level.
Live Room Calls.
None made today. Quite a boring morning, in fact.
Intra-day Round-up.
3 trades made. 3 winning trades.
EUR/USD - Long trade closed (+115 pips)
Opened Long: EUR/USD @ 1.2897
Stop level: 1.2790
Target level: 1.3080
Closed: 1.3012 (+115 pips)
Trade closed after the pair pulled back from the high of 1.3032. Closed below the 1.3017 resistance level.
USD/JPY - Short trade closed (+39 pips)
Opened Short: USD/JPY @ 89.26
Stop level: 90.20
Target level: 87.30
Closed: 88.87 (+39 pips)
The pair made a low of 88.57, the trade was closed on the pullback through the 88.80 level.
USD/CHF - Short trade closed (+136 pips)
Open Long: USD/CHF @ 1.1545
Stop level: 1.1655
Target level: 1.1311
Closed: 1.1409 (+136 pips)
Trade closed near the 1.1405 support level.
Forex Market Update - Tues 03Feb09
€uro Under Selling Pressure
It is expected that the European Central Bank will not change interest rates later this week. There are growing worries about the European banks in general being unable to increase lending, which is also now adding to investors' concerns.
With the current global risk aversion also remaining high, the €uro will continue to be subject of the reaction to investment flows into safe-haven currencies, such as the USD & JPY.
It seems that the ECB are reluctant to cut interest rates this month whilst they still wait for a more detailed update of economic data for the Euro Zone, despite the evidence being there that growth is slowing and inflation pressures are abating. We can add the fact that figures from last week showed unemployment for the Euro Zone region up at 8.0%, whilst inflation was down at 1.1%.
Let us remind ourselves that higher rates in the past have helped the €uro currency, but in this current climate it is a differnt story. It is all about stimulating growth and commerce now - a completely different story.
To add to this situation is the current concern about the European banking system in general. This week has seen Moody's Investors Service Inc. downgrade Barclays Bank long-term credit rating, which has raised some concerns about the credit ratings of other European banks. Note that the Germans plan to hive off their banks' bad debts, which hasn't really been met with applause from the rest of Europe and beyond. The plan involves taking all the bad debts and pushing them all into more than one or two 'bad banks', which is not how the US are doing it, as they are forming one single national 'bad bank', which will hold all the bad debts, being guaranteed by the Fed Res, bascially. This may help banks' balance sheets, but whether this all helps banks to up their lending, we are not so sure. It is the freeing up of the credit system that will help boost recovery, so the banks definietly need to sort this lending situation out.
The €uro is already coming under pressure from reports that there are fears that various individual European central banks are at risk from defaulting on currency swap lines. This comes as European banks struggle to deal with the ongoing and building deteriorating market conditions, together with exposure to bad assets, which all continue to weigh on the financial sector as a whole.
We believe that alot of the bad news is already priced in to the €uro, though, so whether there is still so much downside we are not so sure.
This morning in trading it was a rather boring session. Most major currencies basically didn't do much at all, with the Forex Live Room at Market Bytres almost falling asleep. News that the Bank of Japan plans to buy JPY 1 trillion of shares from financial institutions didn't help much, either.
With stock markets pulling back for another reality check, the market is taking stock, so to speak. The unexpected decline in German retail sales, which fell 0.2% instead of rising 0.5% as expected, didn't help overall sentiment either.
Early doors this morning saw the US dollar up a smidge to JPY89.60, up from JPY89.60 last night.
The €uro was at US$1.2841, down from $1.2847. The €uro was also at JPY115.02, down from JPY115.13.
The £STG was at US$1.4209, down from around US$1.4275.
Things were pretty much near there by lunchtime. Let's hope the intra-day trades come alive...
Happy Trading. www.marketbytes.com.
It is expected that the European Central Bank will not change interest rates later this week. There are growing worries about the European banks in general being unable to increase lending, which is also now adding to investors' concerns.
With the current global risk aversion also remaining high, the €uro will continue to be subject of the reaction to investment flows into safe-haven currencies, such as the USD & JPY.
It seems that the ECB are reluctant to cut interest rates this month whilst they still wait for a more detailed update of economic data for the Euro Zone, despite the evidence being there that growth is slowing and inflation pressures are abating. We can add the fact that figures from last week showed unemployment for the Euro Zone region up at 8.0%, whilst inflation was down at 1.1%.
Let us remind ourselves that higher rates in the past have helped the €uro currency, but in this current climate it is a differnt story. It is all about stimulating growth and commerce now - a completely different story.
To add to this situation is the current concern about the European banking system in general. This week has seen Moody's Investors Service Inc. downgrade Barclays Bank long-term credit rating, which has raised some concerns about the credit ratings of other European banks. Note that the Germans plan to hive off their banks' bad debts, which hasn't really been met with applause from the rest of Europe and beyond. The plan involves taking all the bad debts and pushing them all into more than one or two 'bad banks', which is not how the US are doing it, as they are forming one single national 'bad bank', which will hold all the bad debts, being guaranteed by the Fed Res, bascially. This may help banks' balance sheets, but whether this all helps banks to up their lending, we are not so sure. It is the freeing up of the credit system that will help boost recovery, so the banks definietly need to sort this lending situation out.
The €uro is already coming under pressure from reports that there are fears that various individual European central banks are at risk from defaulting on currency swap lines. This comes as European banks struggle to deal with the ongoing and building deteriorating market conditions, together with exposure to bad assets, which all continue to weigh on the financial sector as a whole.
We believe that alot of the bad news is already priced in to the €uro, though, so whether there is still so much downside we are not so sure.
This morning in trading it was a rather boring session. Most major currencies basically didn't do much at all, with the Forex Live Room at Market Bytres almost falling asleep. News that the Bank of Japan plans to buy JPY 1 trillion of shares from financial institutions didn't help much, either.
With stock markets pulling back for another reality check, the market is taking stock, so to speak. The unexpected decline in German retail sales, which fell 0.2% instead of rising 0.5% as expected, didn't help overall sentiment either.
Early doors this morning saw the US dollar up a smidge to JPY89.60, up from JPY89.60 last night.
The €uro was at US$1.2841, down from $1.2847. The €uro was also at JPY115.02, down from JPY115.13.
The £STG was at US$1.4209, down from around US$1.4275.
Things were pretty much near there by lunchtime. Let's hope the intra-day trades come alive...
Happy Trading. www.marketbytes.com.
Monday, 2 February 2009
Forex Market Update - Mon 02Feb09
The US dollar took advantage of Moody's downgrade on the UK bank Barclays, which worried investors. £STG fell against both the US dollar and €uro on Monday, which was also helped by some more weak UK data. It is also felt that the BoE will lower interest rates this week, taking it towards or to 1%, down from the current 1.5%. We shall see.
The fall in £STG reversed the strong gains of last week, which had seen its largest weekly percentage gain against the greenback in 20 years.
By 3pm the £STG pound was at about $1.42, down 2%. Quite a fall. It had actually hit a session low of US$1.4053 earlier, down nearly 5 cents on last week's peak at US$1.4527.
The €uro rose 2.6% to 90.34 pence, after coming off its lowest level against the ound at just above 88p, hit in mid-December.
The pound's slide on Monday bascially started after the Moody's rating agency cut the credit ratings of Barclays, which caused the bank's share price to fall some 11%. Moody's said that it expected further 'significant' losses due to credit-related writedowns and rising impairments to come out of the bank's woodwork in due course. Barclays has continually said it is not as affected as other banks.
This alls aw the FTSE fall some 1.8% as well.
Data out of the UK wasn't good, either. The purchasing managers' survey for UK manufacturing index rose to 35.8 for January, up from 34.9 in December, which was a bit better than the expected 34.5 but still shows a heavy contraction in activity.
With UK interest rates already 0.5% lower than the euro zone it will give more pressure on £STG. A further cut of another 0.5% to 1% will cause a bigger differenetial from Euro zone and will see the pound fal some more, we feel.
The fall in £STG reversed the strong gains of last week, which had seen its largest weekly percentage gain against the greenback in 20 years.
By 3pm the £STG pound was at about $1.42, down 2%. Quite a fall. It had actually hit a session low of US$1.4053 earlier, down nearly 5 cents on last week's peak at US$1.4527.
The €uro rose 2.6% to 90.34 pence, after coming off its lowest level against the ound at just above 88p, hit in mid-December.
The pound's slide on Monday bascially started after the Moody's rating agency cut the credit ratings of Barclays, which caused the bank's share price to fall some 11%. Moody's said that it expected further 'significant' losses due to credit-related writedowns and rising impairments to come out of the bank's woodwork in due course. Barclays has continually said it is not as affected as other banks.
This alls aw the FTSE fall some 1.8% as well.
Data out of the UK wasn't good, either. The purchasing managers' survey for UK manufacturing index rose to 35.8 for January, up from 34.9 in December, which was a bit better than the expected 34.5 but still shows a heavy contraction in activity.
With UK interest rates already 0.5% lower than the euro zone it will give more pressure on £STG. A further cut of another 0.5% to 1% will cause a bigger differenetial from Euro zone and will see the pound fal some more, we feel.
Sunday, 1 February 2009
Forex Live Room - Performance - Jan 2009
Forex Live Trading Room. Peformance Jan 2009.
Live Room actual Calls gave +32 pips profit.
Intra-day Calls gave +1,370 pips profit.
Come & join the REAL Traders. www.marketbytes.com
Live Room actual Calls gave +32 pips profit.
Intra-day Calls gave +1,370 pips profit.
Come & join the REAL Traders. www.marketbytes.com
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